Central Park (CP): First Trace or measurable snow Wednesday 12/9/20?

[wdrag]

First snow of the year at CP? 

Snow showers are likely to dust the NY forum suburbs between 9A and 5P Wednesday 12/9/20. Does CP ASOS see snow and then is it the first Trace or tenth of the 2020-21 season? The sooner the snow showers arrive (presuming they arrive), the better the chance of measuring on the snow board. Most roads just wet but the northern and western hilly suburbs could have up to 1/2 or 3/4" on the snow board-grass-roofs-even a bit on some untreated pavement?", with I84 high terrain possibly an inch in PA NYS, lesser amounts you proceed east across the Hudson into I84 CT.  

No guarantees of precipitation in NYC (small chance its a mix of rain/snow in NYC) but a pretty good short wave passage along with NAM/RGEM/RDPS support all have it to the city (not necessarily measurable but snow in the air). 

Central Park climate data base (entire back to 1869), the mean first date of measurable there is December 7. 

mPING reports will assist what we see on radar Wednesday morning. 

[NEG NAO]

HRRR has most precip dissipating before it reaches NYC

[NEG NAO]

18Z Nam was more bullish at 18Z

[MikeStorms]

Walt - I don’t post often and have lurked for a long time. I want to thank you for your insightful posts and presentation of data and analysis.


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[etudiant]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

First snow of the year at CP? 

Central Park climate data base (entire back to 1869), the mean first date of measurable there is December 7. 

 

There was snow in Central Park this morning, although admittedly just individual flakes, so nothing measurable.

[NEG NAO]

45 minutes ago, etudiant said:

There was snow in Central Park this morning, although admittedly just individual flakes, so nothing measurable.

They recorded the flurries as a Trace of snow in the park

[wdrag]

6 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

They recorded the flurries as a Trace of snow in the park

Hi!  I just checked CP Climate data and I dont see any snow...did I misread the CLI for CP?  Also, is NKNYC CP...kind of looks like it but I might be mistaken.  Thanks for your further clarifications and previous alerts.   I'll look for your replies. 

And so for today: Still uncertainty...  my guess is CP will have a hard time measuring 0.1" unless it comes down hard, because of above freezing temps.  

I added the 06z/9 NAM profile for LGA... see the temps above freezing BUT a dip to nearr freezing around 2PM, co-located the the highest rh descending to the surface (Blue-purple-see legend) and also co-located with looks like to be a minor shot of lift through the vaunted DGZ (dendritic growth zone). We'll see how this plays out. I still could see a few sprinkles mixed at onset in NYC but a swift change to all snow, presuming the precipitation arrives.  Last graphic is the hrrrX variable density snowfall map...conservative so this is sent to try to keep things in perspective. 603A/9

[NEG NAO]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Hi!  I just checked CP Climate data and I dont see any snow...did I misread the CLI for CP?  Also, is NKNYC CP...kind of looks like it but I might be mistaken.  Thanks for your further clarifications and previous alerts.   I'll look for your replies. 

Walt when I  checked the preliminary  NYC climate report late yesterday evening on New Jersey Weather Page (cod.edu) for NYC snowfall it said T but the final report at 1:20 am said 0 but I have no way of proving it unless they have a copy somewhere - oh well we still have 0 snow  in Central Park - maybe today they will finally get the Trace amount

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

 

 

[wdrag]

52 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Walt when I  checked the preliminary  NYC climate report late yesterday evening on New Jersey Weather Page (cod.edu) for NYC snowfall it said T but the final report at 1:20 am said 0 but I have no way of proving it unless they have a copy somewhere - oh well we still have 0 snow  in Central Park - maybe today they will finally get the Trace amount

 

Helpful...  Let's call it zero for now, OKX has to validate one way or the other. I'm not even 100% sure NYC will see snow today- i still think so. It's crossing the Delaware now and I expect to mPING here in Wantage by 1015A.  

[wdrag]

Here's what you saw... May have more info in a few hours. It was their 442PM report. 

 

Thanks...

[wdrag]

MPIng'd snow for Wantage NJ.  It's just flurries but flake size decent.  32.7/25.3   

[NEG NAO]

Here is a picture of my sky condition at 10:10 am on the border of Union/Middlesex County Woodbridge Township/Clark in NJ

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I can verify this is coming down here as well.  Light snow 32*

[NEG NAO]

Seems as you go from partly cloudy skies to snowy conditions in a short period of time the only question now is how much of the snow dissipates before reaching the immediate NYC metro which some models were suggesting......

[NEG NAO]

[wdrag]

Mt Cobb on exit 8 I84 just east of Scranton with ~2" in less than 2 hours.  Doing. We here in Wantage are down to 3/4mi or so. Ground whitening...still T.   pavement wet. 32.2.

[NEG NAO]

This is hiding the clutter on the above radar image - I have bright skies here with partial sunshine here just east of precip field serious doubts about this having much impact in NYC Metro

[wdrag]

Impact NYC metro probably nil except folks exclaiming 'It's snowing' (maybe mixed with sprinkles at the start).  It could still fade, but i am pretty sure NYC will see some snow at CP sometime between 1230-2P. Doubt if it can measure...  just too warm .. melt on contact except some of the roofs/carts/grass nearby the city. 

My daytime 1030AM ish greeting card - wish it were deeper. Soon it will be.

[wdrag]

Sometimes this stuff acts like summer convection. Once it gets going, it lasts longer-further downstream than expected. Hope CP gets it's trace today and we can get that out of the way. I have followed up with the OKX web team. 

[NEG NAO]

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Smq is reporting light snow and 34. Ewr is 38 however 

[NEG NAO]

[wdrag]

Wantage  0.2" down to 30.4.  TD 29.8  3/4-1mi S-.  small flake but densely filled air.  Hope the main precip clusters don't miss CP (splis right-left)

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Light snow has commenced in Plainfield 

[NEG NAO]

Light Snow here on Woodbridge Township /Clark border 

[Tatamy]

Light snow continues here.  Accumulating on all surfaces including roads.  30*

[Stormlover74]

Starting to coat the ground

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

[NEG NAO]

Latest update from My Radar app on Fire TV at 11:45 this app can zoom in to street level and I find it very accurate especially during thunderstorms - still mode here it also goes in accurate motion

 

[NEG NAO]

Any reports of snow in NYC ? seems it is having a hard time making it across the Hudson on radar