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December 5-6, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone
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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Looks like another 5-7 here based on the latest models, I just glanced quickly.

I just measured 13 in that same spot from earlier. There is a lot of blowing and drifting now however.

If that's true, I should hit 17" or so assuming upslope adds in some fluff tomorrow.

Some of the heaviest snow I have ever seen.

Get used to it.  Toto we’re not in Maryland anymore...

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Well anyway… It was a fun system here where I am located so no complaints from me :) Four inches of blue ...got a little threatening there for a little bit around 2 o’clock when it started to get lower visibility and the trees started to sag a bit ... oops, so it cut off early - like I said if you’re a winter enthusiast just be happy it’s not March 15

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9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Looks like another 5-7 here based on the latest models, I just glanced quickly.

I just measured 13 in that same spot from earlier. There is a lot of blowing and drifting now however.

If that's true, I should hit 17" or so assuming upslope adds in some fluff tomorrow.

Some of the heaviest snow I have ever seen.

Won't be the last time you say this, ha ha

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well anyway… It was a fun system here where I am located so no complaints from me :) Four inches of blue ...got a little threatening there for a little bit around 2 o’clock when it started to get lower visibility and the trees started to sag a bit ... oops, so it cut off early - like I said if you’re a winter enthusiast just be happy it’s not March 15

Ya, and It ain’t even December 15 yet....10 days prior actually.  Bring on the real winter now. 

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I just gotta day for my area ..despite the airmass it got down to 32 At 145-2pm in afternoon and had 2” with meat of the lift forecast from 18z - 0z. We had solid rates till 3pm but the lift did not arrive as advertised in Nashua from 19z to 0z . 1/2 mile snow was not getting it done and we all knew this and the forecast were all calling for huge lift and 1-2” rates mid to late afternoon and into evening . It just didn’t happen and we did have more shredded Radar here compared to Other spots relatively close (west or east or south ) but ya the late afternoon lift not materializing as forecast was the prime reason for the forecast bust here . 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

When everyone was flipping to snow ahead of schedule I thought it was going to be a positive bust...LOL. Shows how quickly things can change. I was sure that the 128 belt was gonna get rocked. They were changing over around 2pm and it looked excellent for hours...but they just never mustered the intensity after the flip. The low level temps were a problem but I’m still surprised. I guess maybe the lift wasn’t quite lining up perfectly in DGZ which really helps in marginal setups. You need everything to go right...esp at lower elevations and perhaps that was the one ingredient missing in an otherwise perfect opportunity to overcome the marginal near-sfc layer. 

Thank you for that. That is so refreshing.

Only the best here, including you, Walt, and some others, are confident enough to admit when they were wrong and understand why.

Attributing incorrect forecasts to weenie maps across the board is a tiresome narrative. Career NWS mets, actually putting up concrete maps, and to an audience of hundreds of thousands, got this and other storms wrong, and it's not because they were rip-reading weatherbell maps.

There were plenty of red flags that we can point to in hindisight. As always, a confluence explains the bust. Last night we actually mentioned that the best omega was well below the DGZ in eastern SNE throughout most of the event --- but maybe we dismissed that as generating poor but not inadequate snowgrowth. We've certainly overcome that in other storms. A stinger never really materialized. We've certainly had past storms overcome marginal airmasses with good dynamics, and maybe this just did not pack enough punch. Not a single person here would have said Northborough would end up with 1.5". Even Lunenberg managed only 6.5" lol.

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It was the lift , it didn’t materialize as impressive as forecast during late afternoon and evening . We new 1/2 mile moderate snow wasn’t gonna do it in SNE and that’s primarily what we saw after 4pm N of Pike . 
 

Anyone  look at visibilities at KBED LWM / ASH after 5pm on their hourly reports .. that was why it underperformed 

Let’s move onto the next potential...whenever that may be lol? This was anon event here.

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

92B98016-CF75-4175-A61A-BA975D477006.thumb.jpeg.1ed963b77a0a4df40e71ab8c4e3bbd7c.jpeg

Are there any people where you live ?

I bet you miss the Mid Atlantic and all the busts.

Enjoy man. Nice pic.

 

29 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Jeezuz, just suit up and go play in the yard!

Naked snow angels

16 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

To be fair, modeled 2m temps were always horrible. In SNE it was narrow bands of ideal conditions for snow in an otherwise hostile setup. 

People thought the ccb was going to bring down temps in many areas. The models did a good job with the freezing line.

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Portland......:raining:

Coast FTL

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

2.5” at home. 2.76” liquid in the gauge. 
 

Probably a half inch rain before snow started mixing in. 1:1 ain’t going to cut it.

Did you have many reports from elevations or are those generally sparse ?

 Seems many in Maine Got tons of liquid but Missed warning snows by being about 500 feet Too low elevation . Just wondering what someone with another 500-800” elevation would have seen In interior SW Maine .

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8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Are there any people where you live ?

I bet you miss the Mid Atlantic and all the busts.

Enjoy man. Nice pic.

 

Naked snow angels

People thought the ccb was going to bring down temps in many areas. The models did a good job with the freezing line.

Coast FTL

About 50 people or so live up on the hill where I am.

300 some in Randolph total. It's a very sparse area.

If you want this lifestyle, just do it, is my advice. Most people here are working class salt-of-the earth types. They are not high-rollers and most of the homes in Randolph are very modest. I live in basically the largest compound in the town. This entire area is very blue collar which was a big part of the draw for me. I love the people here and in Gorham/Berlin/Milan. Honest, hardworking people.

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Looking at radar, I am thinking 20"+ might be in play. I haven't performed diligent measuring. I am just sticking a ruler in the ground. A lot of the depth has been lost to compaction. I bet the CoCoRaHS guy down the road from me captured the lost inches. I can't wait to see his obs. I bet he has measured 15-17 already.

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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

About 50 people or so live up on the hill where I am.

300 some in Randolph total. It's a very sparse area.

If you want this lifestyle, just do it, is my advice. Most people here are working class salt-of-the earth types. They are not high-rollers and most of the homes in Randolph are very modest. I live in basically the largest compound in the town. This entire area is very blue collar which was a big part of the draw for me. I love the people here and in Gorham/Berlin/Milan. Honest, hardworking people.

You live in a compound?  Sounds large. 

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