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December 5-6, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone
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18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Trip was easy, except for the fishtail, accident, crashing into the  guard rail dude that was just in front of me.  Knew that was going to happening because mofo was hauling ass...way too fast.    Up to 6" here now

Rte 27 is a dangerous windy road along the Carrabasset River, if that's where it was.

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That’s pretty damn good outside of Kevin’s area.... certainly better than all the models that were spitting out like 6-10 down to Foxboro and Mansfield 

Burlington, CT down to Wolcott west of the river had 3-7” today . Again though only elevations . It’s got something to do with that. The HRRR and NAM 3k both nailed the amounts and elevations here and in that area . You literally could pick out the pixels over the higher spots .

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2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

it's funny . I bet Chris at 425' has less slop and more paste in Nashua

 

2 hours ago, DomNH said:

I’ll see what my parents ~300 ft on the Hollis border is like tomorrow. Might be a little nicer looking than the slop we have downtown. 

My guess is I have 6” of paste. Now that rates have lightened and the winds picking up, the driveway is turning to slop with the snow bombs falling off the trees.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Burlington, CT down to Wolcott west of the river had 3-7” today . Again though only elevations . It’s got something to do with that. The HRRR and NAM 3k both nailed the amounts and elevations here and in that area . You literally could pick out the pixels over the higher spots .

Yeah some of the shorter range models had it pretty good once we got a little closer. I think most of the less bullish models undersold your area and just to the north and east. It was pretty clear from you up to will and Dave were going to be the winners, but for some reason, some models just weren’t seeing it.

you flipped pretty early, I’m actually a bit surprised you only got 6”... I would have guessed you were good for double digits anyway.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, don't take that the wrong way...not a shot at you at all. Just saying that even the greatest minds like you thought several inches, but that map nailed it at 2".

Yeah I was mostly commenting that the map got it right but prob not due to an exceptional skill there...it was wrong further southwest...even excluding elevated places like ORH (say, the 495 belt from maybe Berlin/Bolton down to Milford had solid advisory level snows 3-6” when the map was spitting out like an inch)

But it was definitely far more accurate than the other clown maps which we knew would be too optimistic in this airmass. 

You're still going to defeat that map in the long run looking at soundings and analyzing the model. 

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14 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

They just plowed my driveway. I have no idea where they will put the snow come March. Huge piles already. I have about a quarter mile of driveway here. 

Our plow guy also a construction business. If the piles get too high and we can’t see traffic or they’re just getting big near the house, he’ll come with the bucket loader and push everything back. Maybe you’ll need something similar.

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah some of the shorter range models had it pretty good once we got a little closer. I think most of the less bullish models undersold your area and just to the north and east. It was pretty clear from you up to will and Dave were going to be the winners, but for some reason, some models just weren’t seeing it.

I’ve seen those Hi res models literally nail it to the hilltop the last few years. I don’t know if anyone except me remembers, but there was that crazy event 2 winters ago in March that dropped 8” here . It was a pseudo upslope event .  People weren’t buying it, yet all the Mesos were popping 6-10”. They absolutely nailed it. The crazy part was .. the heavy snow band was actually falling 20 miles to our west. But the upper level winds deposited the snow from Union down to here. It was so localized. If you went 2 miles in any direction of that line you literally had nothing . If you looked at the radar that night, it looked like the river valley was getting crushed . They had nothing. It all fell in the NE hills. My point is.. when the mesos hone in run after run with these tiny pixels, they’re usually dead nuts on.

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11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That’s pretty damn good outside of Kevin’s area.... certainly better than all the models that were spitting out like 6-10 down to Foxboro and Mansfield 

Yeah...and it hit all of those mini jack zones from ORH county to MHT. Plus the screw jobs near Winni, 1P1, and LEB.

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1 minute ago, monadnocks said:

Our plow guy also a construction business. If the piles get too high and we can’t see traffic or they’re just getting big near the house, he’ll come with the bucket loader and push everything back. Maybe you’ll need something similar.

Yes, I have already been told that by the excavator guy who paved my driveway this fall. He can come and haul the snow away and had to do that here in the bigger retention winters.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve seen those Hi res models literally nail it to the hilltop the last few years. I don’t know if anyone except me remembers, but there was that crazy event 2 winters ago in March that dropped 8” here . It was a pseudo upslope event .  People weren’t buying it, yet all the Mesos were popping 6-10”. They absolutely nailed it. The crazy part was .. the heavy snow band was actually falling 20 miles to our west. But the upper level winds deposited the snow from Union down to here. It was so localized. If you went 2 miles in any direction of that line you literally had nothing . If you looked at the radar that night, it looked like the river valley was getting crushed . They had nothing. It all fell in the NE hills. My point is.. when the mesos hone in run after run with these tiny pixels, they’re usually dead nuts on.

I think I remember that event.... like across town or 1 town over it was sunny or at The very least, not snowing at all. Very localized.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

3.5" for you... wow.  That looked like a lock for 8"+ too.

We definitely over-estimated the dynamic cooling and should certainly pay better attention to 2-M temps next time.  Last night's 00z EURO had widespread >0C surface temps as of 8pm tonight but as a forum I don't think we really discussed that aspect.  The idea was the dynamics would flip it easily to stackable snow.

Wonder what your QPF is?

4.5" at 9 PM, a bit more than I'd thought, but only a bit.  However, I discovered why the forecast busted - nothing but flakes noon on and LE (without the 0.10" RA at the start) was 1.19" for a lovely ratio of 3.8.  Even a wet 8:1 would've put me up near that Will measured.  I think maybe that the flakes were so moist when they landed that they played flexible Tetris and self-compacted throughout the storm. 

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