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December 5-6, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone
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I am a bit surprised we didn’t see thunder snow in more spots. 

I agree with Scott that a little more antecedent airmass would have helped tighten up that ML Fronto. 

Then again, like Tip said, with a colder airmass oozing in, this storm is probably hitting the Grand Banks instead, lol. 

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9 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Thanks... not seeing any reports of this. Unsure whether BOX has the reports, or they're short staffed?  Thank you for this!

Hey Walt; crazy variation across western Hartford County;  only a slushy cover at my old location at 300', our current location 3.5" at 700' - meanwhile at under-construction new house at 1140' measured 6.0"...  Hope you are well; talk soon.

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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Me ? I post the Stormvista maps all the time.

Clown maps in general are terrible and function as eye candy really. But the models were really blowing up a good CCB starting from NYC on NE, which I guess happened but wasn't enough to really overcome the mild air. The NAM especially and even some Euro runs were turning my backyard over to a period of heavy snow enough to accumulate maybe 1-3" which I didn't believe, but maybe that was something of a warning when it didn't pan out and  my area couldn't manage more than some white rain, R/S mix. GFS is usually too warm at the surface but maybe it verified better? 

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1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Hey Walt; crazy variation across western Hartford County;  only a slushy cover at my old location at 300', our current location 3.5" at 700' - meanwhile at under-construction new house at 1140' measured 6.0"...  Hope you are well; talk soon.

Thanks John... helpful!  Hope NWS has the reports other than your 3.5.  Talk soon.  Walt

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Just now, MJO812 said:

But I have been burned many times by the Weatherbell maps.

I'm waiting still for the 47" the NAM promised me for Nemo Feb 2013. And the worst is when the news networks start showing them, I remember Janice Huff on NBC4 showing one of those insane NAM runs that gave Central Park 30" (Central Park ended up with 12" I believe), and then people panicked and swarmed the gas stations again like after Sandy. I think the news stations are a little better with this now but not much. Sensationalism sells. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s a garbage airmass. That’s why I was sort of meh.

It's impressive that ORH at 1,000ft on December 5th, ripped off 1.14" of water in a 6-hour period at H85 temps below 0C and didn't hit 32F... all the obs are 33-34F.

That's an average of 0.20"/hr pretty much at sub-freezing temps a few thousand feet above them and still couldn't hit a true 32F.  I figured they'd be down at like 30F ripping snow with those precip rates.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

It's impressive that ORH at 1,000ft on December 5th, ripped off 1.14" of water in a 6-hour period at H85 temps below 0C and didn't hit 32F... all the obs are 33-34F.

That's an average of 0.20"/hr pretty much at sub-freezing temps a few thousand feet above them and still couldn't hit a true 32F.  I figured they'd be down at like 30F ripping snow with those precip rates.

Oh absolutely. That's crazy. 

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Looking back: Original post Tue... too slow by 12 hours and no freezing rain.  Rest OK.  Had general 0.3-0.9" rainfall se NYS, ~1/2"extreme nw NJ otherwise widespread 1-2" there in NJ, also LI and  CT. Will post complete CoCoRAHS summary qpf and snowfall tomorrow, around 1PM. 

This morning's expectations (my own): Wind gusts were 5 knots less than expected,  no Thunder occurred.  

ECMWF Kuchera and all 10 to 1 ratios I think in general were too high especially valleys.  I think snow ratios need to be taken into account when thinking of amounts.   Accordingly power outages not as high as expected from combined snow and wind or wind alone. 

None of these elevation snows are easy: Other than the one day of extreme west modeling solutions, the overall modeling guided the main impact areas pretty good... For our NYC forum..a routine event, with knowledge that this is the fourth decent storm in the past 3 weeks (Nov 11-15, Nov 30, Dec 5).  752P/5

 

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Looking back... 

GFS actually looks like it may have had the most accurate progs. Check out 0z run 12/5 was very close to reality.

NAM / Euro under-weighed the low level warmth, and also were too dynamic... including runs yesterday and 0z 12/5 right up to gametime. 

RGEM atrocious, furnace and was still more wrong than the rest.

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1 minute ago, wdrag said:

Looking back: Original post Tue... too slow by 12 hours and no freezing rain.  Rest OK.  Had general 0.3-0.9" rainfall se NYS, ~1/2"extreme nw NJ otherwise widespread 1-2" there in NJ, also LI and  CT. Will post complete CoCoRAHS summary qpf and snowfall tomorrow, around 1PM. 

This morning:'s expectations: Wind gusts were 5 knots less than expected,  no Thunder occurred.  

ECMWF Kuchera and all 10 to 1 ratios I think in general were too high especially valleys.  I think snow ratios need to be taken into account when thinking of amounts.   

Accordingly power outages not as high as expected from combined snow and wind or wind alone. 

None of these elevation snows are easy: Other than the one day of extreme west modeling solutions, the overall modeling guided the main impact areas pretty good... For our NYC forum..a routine event, with knowledge that this is the fourth decent storm in the past 3 weeks (Nov 11-15, Nov 30, Dec 5).  752P/5

 

Yep, went about as expected in our sub-forum area. Thanks for the detailed analysis as always. 

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Power destroyed. About 3.5” here.  Waiting for the heavies. 

About the same depth here, not quite the morning forecast of 12-18 nor the midstream update to 8-12, as the good bands refused to come more than about 5 miles NW of I-95.  Heavy precip now is downeast, but probably RA/mix within 30 miles of salt water.  Many flickers here and 7-8 full blacks - only for 1-2 seconds, not enough to start the gennie but plenty to foul up computers and TV.

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