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December 5-6, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone
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  On 12/6/2020 at 3:37 AM, psuhoffman said:

We’ve been in about as bad a pattern as possible all November and so the North American temp profile was torched. That’s not something that will happen often where you are, and especially not mid winter.

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That was also a ridiculous cutter. It basically stalled up in Ontario. Pretty unique. When you have tropical dewpoints into northern Maine, there’s no escaping those cutters. 

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  On 12/6/2020 at 3:59 AM, ORH_wxman said:

That was also a ridiculous cutter. It basically stalled up in Ontario. Pretty unique. When you have tropical dewpoints into northern Maine, there’s no escaping those cutters. 

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Oh definitely...but with a more typical temperature profile across eastern North America I also doubt you see that result either. Either way it was anomalous not something that should happen frequently, especially not deeper into winter. 

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  On 12/6/2020 at 4:02 AM, DotRat_Wx said:

Best us by an inch 

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Lol..so it never flipped over there I take it.

Ya this sucked for most of us.  It snowed hard here for a couple hrs..covered everything in white, including roads.  Thought we were off to the races...but then the precip let up and it died.

 

NEXT!  

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  On 12/6/2020 at 2:32 AM, dendrite said:

Parents just had a large tree come down across their driveway so they’re trapped for awhile.

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Hope they are all right.  How much snow do you have?  We have none accumulated though about 0.5 miles south and north of us away from the lake they have about 2.5 inches.  Across the lake they have accumulation. The wind has been rocking the house with a current air temp of 33.2 deg.  We are located on the south west end of Webster Lake, NH.

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This storm was an embarrassment. To have 2 inches by 145 pm and wind up with 3 inches total is just against all intelligent thought given where this was heading via modeling and forecasts at that point.  We flipped by 1045 in Nashua..ahead of schedule....forecast for 6 plus and looked to be over performer and we just had a combo of shiat lift after 4pm and garbage temps.

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Im thinking the last half of this system pretty much just didn’t happen? Certainly happened well shy of those late guidance last night ...they had moderate to heavy snow deep into the evening… interesting.

So we were done here by 4:30 or 5 o’clock this evening and we’ve had nothing but mist flurries and drizzle temperatures rising back to 34 ever since. 
 

I think I am kind of kicking myself for something I noticed yesterday. And it seems to be playing out here until I get a better explanation... 

I would say the last 1/3 of QPF from last night’s NAM over Eastern sections was thru a 320° wind.  I’ve noticed over the years that the NAM tends to hold onto substantial precipitation way too long when wind backs to the northwest around coastal events.  Rad is filled with what looks like probably chaff/virga  now. I’ve seen this before it’s like the models think this is heavy D form banding

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  On 12/6/2020 at 4:10 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This storm was an embarrassment. To have 2 inches by 130 pm and wind up with 3 inches total is just against all intelligent thought given where this was heading via modeling and forecasts at that point.  

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Lmao...I got an inch in a couple hrs. Then it turned back to rain. 

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  On 12/6/2020 at 4:10 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Im thinking the last half of the system pretty much just didn’t happen? Certainly happened well shy of those late guidance last night ...they had moderate to heavy snow deep into the evening… interesting.

Si we were done here by 4:30 or 5 o’clock this evening and we’ve had nothing but mist flurries and drizzle temperatures rising back to 34 ever since. 
 

I think I am kind of kicking myself for something I noticed yesterday. And it seems to be playing out here until I get a better explanation... 

I would say the last 1/3 of QPF from last night’s NAM over Eastern sections was thru a 320° wind.  I’ve noticed over the years that the NAM tends to hold onto substantial precipitation way too long when wind backs to the northwest around coastal events.  Rad is filled with what looks like probably chaff/virga  now. I’ve seen this before it’s like the models think this is heavy D form banding

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The thing is it's still happening? The CCB held on pretty well until about now where it's dying down south of ME. The rates/flakes were that crappy? My precip ended by 2pm and I'm not that far from you. 

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  On 12/6/2020 at 4:10 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Im thinking the last half of this system pretty much just didn’t happen? Certainly happened well shy of those late guidance last night ...they had moderate to heavy snow deep into the evening… interesting.

So we were done here by 4:30 or 5 o’clock this evening and we’ve had nothing but mist flurries and drizzle temperatures rising back to 34 ever since. 
 

I think I am kind of kicking myself for something I noticed yesterday. And it seems to be playing out here until I get a better explanation... 

I would say the last 1/3 of QPF from last night’s NAM over Eastern sections was thru a 320° wind.  I’ve noticed over the years that the NAM tends to hold onto substantial precipitation way too long when wind backs to the northwest around coastal events.  Rad is filled with what looks like probably chaff/virga  now. I’ve seen this before it’s like the models think this is heavy D form banding

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Same time  the snow.... stuck to the radar apparatus and the radar crapped the bed for a while ...it was all down hill for many ..not all  lol.  

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  On 12/6/2020 at 4:13 AM, jm1220 said:

The thing is it's still happening? The CCB held on pretty well until about now where it's dying down south of ME. The rates/flakes were that crappy? My precip ended by 2pm and I'm not that far from you. 

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Yeah it’s like we’re still in the wrapper around the CCB but I think it’s getting eviscerated by downsloping other land source drying when deeper lift passed away ...other mechanics to consider. But in the past these 320 to 350 direction winds here kill CCB wraparound

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  On 12/6/2020 at 4:13 AM, greenmtnwx said:

Any ideas on how Loon/Lincoln is doing? Was thinking of heading tomorrow but only if big totals. 

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The poster near 93 in Plymouth at 1100' had a horrible bust so my guess is 25 miles further north at Loon's low base elevation stunk as well.  Up high they probably had a significant gradient.

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  On 12/6/2020 at 4:18 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah it’s like we’re still in the wrapper on CCB but I think they were getting eviscerated by downsloping other land source drying when deeper lift passed away ...other mechanics to consider. But in the past theses 320 to 350 direction winds here kill CCB wraparound

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So much for the stinger...

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  On 12/6/2020 at 4:12 AM, WinterWolf said:

Lmao...I got an inch in a couple hrs. Then it turned back to rain. 

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A little over an inch from 10:00-11:30, white rain, then hours of rain... exciting. Some places further north at this elevation/longitude barely flipped at all so technically I guess we're lucky lol.

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  On 12/6/2020 at 4:20 AM, PhineasC said:

Looks like another 5-7 here based on the latest models, I just glanced quickly.

I just measured 13 in that same spot from earlier. There is a lot of blowing and drifting now however.

If that's true, I should hit 17" or so assuming upslope adds in some fluff tomorrow.

Some of the heaviest snow I have ever seen.

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Get used to it.  Toto we’re not in Maryland anymore...

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  On 12/6/2020 at 4:21 AM, Thunderblizzard said:

A little over an inch from 10:00-11:30, white rain, then hours of rain... exciting. Some places further north at this elevation/longitude barely flipped at all so technically I guess we're lucky lol.

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Yes I agree. I thought the same thing seeing they had nothing. 

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