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December 5-6, 2020 Storm Observations and Nowcast

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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PhineasC
PhineasC
alex
alex

I 

Whineminster
Whineminster

Is this what you call a Birch bending blue bomb?

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Chrisrotary12

Chrisrotary12

Posted
Posted
  On 12/5/2020 at 11:51 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

it's funny . I bet Chris at 425' has less slop and more paste in Nashua

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  On 12/6/2020 at 12:15 AM, DomNH said:

I’ll see what my parents ~300 ft on the Hollis border is like tomorrow. Might be a little nicer looking than the slop we have downtown. 

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My guess is I have 6” of paste. Now that rates have lightened and the winds picking up, the driveway is turning to slop with the snow bombs falling off the trees.

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

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  On 12/6/2020 at 2:36 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Burlington, CT down to Wolcott west of the river had 3-7” today . Again though only elevations . It’s got something to do with that. The HRRR and NAM 3k both nailed the amounts and elevations here and in that area . You literally could pick out the pixels over the higher spots .

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Yeah some of the shorter range models had it pretty good once we got a little closer. I think most of the less bullish models undersold your area and just to the north and east. It was pretty clear from you up to will and Dave were going to be the winners, but for some reason, some models just weren’t seeing it.

you flipped pretty early, I’m actually a bit surprised you only got 6”... I would have guessed you were good for double digits anyway.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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  On 12/6/2020 at 2:30 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, don't take that the wrong way...not a shot at you at all. Just saying that even the greatest minds like you thought several inches, but that map nailed it at 2".

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Yeah I was mostly commenting that the map got it right but prob not due to an exceptional skill there...it was wrong further southwest...even excluding elevated places like ORH (say, the 495 belt from maybe Berlin/Bolton down to Milford had solid advisory level snows 3-6” when the map was spitting out like an inch)

But it was definitely far more accurate than the other clown maps which we knew would be too optimistic in this airmass. 

You're still going to defeat that map in the long run looking at soundings and analyzing the model. 

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monadnocks

monadnocks

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  On 12/6/2020 at 2:29 AM, PhineasC said:

They just plowed my driveway. I have no idea where they will put the snow come March. Huge piles already. I have about a quarter mile of driveway here. 

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Our plow guy also a construction business. If the piles get too high and we can’t see traffic or they’re just getting big near the house, he’ll come with the bucket loader and push everything back. Maybe you’ll need something similar.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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  On 12/6/2020 at 2:39 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah some of the shorter range models had it pretty good once we got a little closer. I think most of the less bullish models undersold your area and just to the north and east. It was pretty clear from you up to will and Dave were going to be the winners, but for some reason, some models just weren’t seeing it.

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I’ve seen those Hi res models literally nail it to the hilltop the last few years. I don’t know if anyone except me remembers, but there was that crazy event 2 winters ago in March that dropped 8” here . It was a pseudo upslope event .  People weren’t buying it, yet all the Mesos were popping 6-10”. They absolutely nailed it. The crazy part was .. the heavy snow band was actually falling 20 miles to our west. But the upper level winds deposited the snow from Union down to here. It was so localized. If you went 2 miles in any direction of that line you literally had nothing . If you looked at the radar that night, it looked like the river valley was getting crushed . They had nothing. It all fell in the NE hills. My point is.. when the mesos hone in run after run with these tiny pixels, they’re usually dead nuts on.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
  On 12/6/2020 at 2:33 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That’s pretty damn good outside of Kevin’s area.... certainly better than all the models that were spitting out like 6-10 down to Foxboro and Mansfield 

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Yeah...and it hit all of those mini jack zones from ORH county to MHT. Plus the screw jobs near Winni, 1P1, and LEB.

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
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  On 12/6/2020 at 2:45 AM, monadnocks said:

Our plow guy also a construction business. If the piles get too high and we can’t see traffic or they’re just getting big near the house, he’ll come with the bucket loader and push everything back. Maybe you’ll need something similar.

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Yes, I have already been told that by the excavator guy who paved my driveway this fall. He can come and haul the snow away and had to do that here in the bigger retention winters.

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

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  On 12/6/2020 at 2:46 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve seen those Hi res models literally nail it to the hilltop the last few years. I don’t know if anyone except me remembers, but there was that crazy event 2 winters ago in March that dropped 8” here . It was a pseudo upslope event .  People weren’t buying it, yet all the Mesos were popping 6-10”. They absolutely nailed it. The crazy part was .. the heavy snow band was actually falling 20 miles to our west. But the upper level winds deposited the snow from Union down to here. It was so localized. If you went 2 miles in any direction of that line you literally had nothing . If you looked at the radar that night, it looked like the river valley was getting crushed . They had nothing. It all fell in the NE hills. My point is.. when the mesos hone in run after run with these tiny pixels, they’re usually dead nuts on.

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I think I remember that event.... like across town or 1 town over it was sunny or at The very least, not snowing at all. Very localized.

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tamarack

tamarack

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  On 12/6/2020 at 1:35 AM, powderfreak said:

3.5" for you... wow.  That looked like a lock for 8"+ too.

We definitely over-estimated the dynamic cooling and should certainly pay better attention to 2-M temps next time.  Last night's 00z EURO had widespread >0C surface temps as of 8pm tonight but as a forum I don't think we really discussed that aspect.  The idea was the dynamics would flip it easily to stackable snow.

Wonder what your QPF is?

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4.5" at 9 PM, a bit more than I'd thought, but only a bit.  However, I discovered why the forecast busted - nothing but flakes noon on and LE (without the 0.10" RA at the start) was 1.19" for a lovely ratio of 3.8.  Even a wet 8:1 would've put me up near that Will measured.  I think maybe that the flakes were so moist when they landed that they played flexible Tetris and self-compacted throughout the storm. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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  On 12/6/2020 at 2:55 AM, tamarack said:

4.5" at 9 PM, a bit more than I'd thought, but only a bit.  However, I discovered why the forecast busted - nothing but flakes noon on and LE (without the 0.10" RA at the start) was 1.19" for a lovely ratio of 3.8.  Even a wet 8:1 would've put me up near that Will measured.  I think maybe that the flakes were so moist when they landed that they played flexible Tetris and self-compacted throughout the storm. 

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I think even the models that had 4:1 ratios had way too much QPF. So the end result was still a lot of snow. 
 

Couple that with DGZ sitting around 500 mb near the coast and that’s a disaster for big snow. Just west of that though, sweet spot.

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