Wonderdog Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 I hope that the EURO is right for no other reason than it seems that in years past, when we could depend on the EURO, we had more snow. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Wonderdog said: I hope that the EURO is right for no other reason than it seems that in years past, when we could depend on the EURO, we had more snow. lol Like you always say keep the faith. We’ll luck into something eventually. If it wasn’t for my job I would have moved a long time ago. But not much of what I do away from DC. So I wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Is there an 06z run of the Euro? If so how did it look for Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: Is there an 06z run of the Euro? If so how did it look for Monday? I’m gonna guess if it was anything other than the last train to Turdtown it would have been posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Is there an 06z run of the Euro? If so how did it look for Monday? I don’t pay for WM.com, etc but someone posted the 6z Euro in the NE forum...at least through Monday 21z the 0.1” line ran straight through arlington/Alexandria/dc. Not sure if more ‘fell’ after that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 probably right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 I thought I read somewhere that the EURO now has free precip. maps or even models. If so, can someone post a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: I thought I read somewhere that the EURO now has free precip. maps or even models. If so, can someone post a link? Pivotalweather.com - doesn’t have 6z/18z runs though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 WB had been frozen this am at hour 18 for EURO...but don’t think it matters up here, it’s over Grover for at least another week and longer if the GFS is the new King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 44 minutes ago, nj2va said: I don’t pay for WM.com, etc but someone posted the 6z Euro in the NE forum...at least through Monday 21z the 0.1” line ran straight through arlington/Alexandria/dc. Not sure if more ‘fell’ after that though. Precip doesn’t make it north of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 I still like the look of this event. Precip stays more toward Southern Maryland....just like the rain has done all year. Maybe it's atmospheric memory but either way I'm not going to question it. Hopefully it overperforms just like all the rain events has done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 I would be quite happy with seeing first flakes of the year. Seems like that's still a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Isn’t it odd to have the Euro and GFS so far apart so close to an event? I realize it’s how they are treating NS h5 but still just seems peculiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 One of the reasons why we have ENSEMBLES Is to check the validity of the operational or deterministic models. In this case the operational 12z GFS is completely flat with only a little bit of precip in Southeast Virginia on the 12Z run. But as I'm sure you have all seen by now the 12ZGFS ensemble looks exactly like 0z and 6z European runs.... This should be a big clue for everybody that the operational GFS for whatever reason is still completely clueless when it comes to this system on Monday. The differences between the 12z GEFS and the operational GFS is simply staggering at 48 hours before the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said: One of the reasons why we have ENSEMBLES Is to check the validity of the operational or deterministic models. In this case the operational 12z GFS is completely flat with only a little bit of precip in Southeast Virginia on the 12Z run. But as I'm sure you have all seen by now the 12ZGFS ensemble looks exactly like 0z and 6z European runs.... This should be a big clue for everybody that the operational GFS for whatever reason is still completely clueless when it comes to this system on Monday. The differences between the 12z GEFS and the operational GFS is simply staggering at 48 hours before the event. Are the ensembles still based off of the old GFS? If yes, it's less staggering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Isn’t it odd to have the Euro and GFS so far apart so close to an event? I realize it’s how they are treating NS h5 but still just seems peculiar. It is but in this case it’s a fairly subtle difference in how they handle some mid level energy that squeezes out some very light snow on the euro v not on the GFS. Synoptically they aren’t as far apart as the surface precip representation suggests. But sometimes the small details matter a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 minute ago, dallen7908 said: Are the ensembles still based off of the old GFS? If yes, it's less staggering Good question...they did upgrade the gefs and added members but I don’t know if it’s based on the new operational now or not. Early returns on the upgraded gefs suggest it’s not as overly snow biased compared to the Eps like it used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Yes, GEFS uses the FV3 dynamical core now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yes, GEFS uses the FV3 dynamical core now. Thanks. Fwiw I’ve noticed the gefs seems improved so far this cold season. It’s won its fair share of battles with the EPS so far. That’s not really what we want right now though. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Scraff said: I too use the 48 hr HRRR for all my short term forecasts. In a totally unrelated story, I might be looking for a new job soon /j 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Thanks. Fwiw I’ve noticed the gefs seems improved so far this cold season. It’s won its fair share of battles with the EPS so far. That’s not really what we want right now though. Lol Yeah, it’s done respectably well. Seems to have lost the major cold bias as well. And more reasonably dispersive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 54 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said: One of the reasons why we have ENSEMBLES Is to check the validity of the operational or deterministic models. In this case the operational 12z GFS is completely flat with only a little bit of precip in Southeast Virginia on the 12Z run. But as I'm sure you have all seen by now the 12ZGFS ensemble looks exactly like 0z and 6z European runs.... This should be a big clue for everybody that the operational GFS for whatever reason is still completely clueless when it comes to this system on Monday. The differences between the 12z GEFS and the operational GFS is simply staggering at 48 hours before the event. Since nobody else posted it: 12z: 6z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Since nobody else posted it: 12z: 6z: Right where we want it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 In my old fashioned way I will be looking at high pressure exertion. 30.00 to 30.15 we are golden 30.15-30.25 iffy 30.30+ and forced south and out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: In my old fashioned way I will be looking at high pressure exertion. 30.00 to 30.15 we are golden 30.15-30.25 iffy 30.30+ and forced south and out I’ll be looking at the digging NS vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 WB 18Z NAM...flurry watch in effect for SE VA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 31 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z NAM...flurry watch in effect for SE VA... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 RGEM shows a nice 3” for Richmond and south of C’ville dusting for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 RGEM shows a nice 3” for Richmond and south of C’ville dusting for DC unsurprisingly, the HDRPS agrees. almost would tempt me to drive to Cville if it had any chance to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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