DTWXRISK Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: FWIW, Bernie Rayno is pretty interested and sees the chance for a couple inches in parts of Virginia (outside the mountains) and snow up to Baltimore potentially. yesterday when I was taking to him about this he thought I was to bullish on this.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 CWG w their typical buzzkill headline.....possible, but unlikely snowfall. Why even call it out in a headline if its unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 29 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: At first glance, it seems the new GFS is a step in the right direction. The vorts in New England seem to eject quicker, which doesn't suppress heights behind it as much as in the 12z run. Doesn't quite get it done yet, but a clear northwest shift in the precipitation field. Baby steps. New: Old: it is stunnignto me hwo the GFS does this with every fooking east coast storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, snowfan said: CWG w their typical buzzkill headline.....possible, but unlikely snowfall. Why even call it out in a headline if its unlikely. consensus kills the overlooked event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Wbal with 30% chance of snow Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 I put it in my recording but DC NWS has partly sunny in their forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Let’s go with Wbal...LWX is dead to me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 18z GFS and 12z 72-84h GGEM each say flurries, out to sea with no significant northern stream development. Time for improvements to show up though, at least there is some upper support for potential 1-2" snowmaker. 18z GFS finishes run with 10-15" storm on 20th, wonder what reality will bring on that time scale? Personally I think this will be a fairly decent winter compared to some recent busts, eventually one or two significant events, with a strong signal for persistent west coast ridge development the odds favor some good winter scenarios for the eastern U.S. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Mount Holly is all in on sunny, chilly week, although they mention an outside chance of light rain showers for coastal areas(DE) in their discussion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 18z EURO caved, for those who still care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z EURO caved, for those who still care. Even down this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Even down this way? No snow for anyone. Literally none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 I know we’re snow deprived but man...I can’t get too excited about this one even if it did happen. Super weak/light event. Probably would only be light accums in west central Virginia. I guess if I lived there I’d be keeping a bit of an eye on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z EURO caved, for those who still care. The fact that we have said “the Euro caved” more than once is like being on some alternate universe. I am quite optimistic about this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Threat dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Threat dead 00z euro just tried to bring it back a little. Barely, but it’s there. that said, this ain’t happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 The weekend storm is taking its sweet time moving away which is crushing this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 00z euro just tried to bring it back a little. Barely, but it’s there. that said, this ain’t happening dont over react yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 6 hours ago, BristowWx said: The fact that we have said “the Euro caved” more than once is like being on some alternate universe. I am quite optimistic about this winter. 18z eps did NOT cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 6 hours ago, Buddy1987 said: Even down this way? who ever said that about 18z euro was wrong sw va will do ok with this little event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 6 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z EURO caved, for those who still care. 18z EPS did NOT cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 18z EPS did NOT cave it didn’t not cave, didn’t look any better than 12z. 0z looks worse than 6z IMO. Might end up working for you and it could work for me if I was desperate enough to drive to Cville, but barring major changes (which there could’ve) I think it’s safe to say Euro/EPS is on an island and is slowly caving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: it didn’t not cave, didn’t look any better than 12z. 0z looks worse than 6z IMO. Might end up working for you and it could work for me if I was desperate enough to drive to Cville, but barring major changes (which there could’ve) I think it’s safe to say Euro/EPS is on an island and is slowly caving. 7 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z EURO caved, for those who still care. 18z EPS did NOT cave DO NOT AGREE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 18z EPS did NOT cave DO NOT AGREE don’t want to argue with you about it because I respect you and know you are much more knowledgeable than me! I genuinely hope it holds steady with what it’s got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 0Z OP EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 0Z EPS this is an INCREASE ins snow amounts on the eps when compared to the last few runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: don’t want to argue with you about it because I respect you and know you are much more knowledgeable than me! I genuinely hope it holds steady with what it’s got. from DC ARLINGton perspective I see what you mean -- best stuff may stay south of you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 hour ago, DTWXRISK said: from DC ARLINGton perspective I see what you mean -- best stuff may stay south of you You’re not wrong from the perspective you are analyzing this. But the majority of the people in this thread are in the Baltimore/DC area and so to them it’s looking like a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 I can already imagine this hitting the EZF wall then collapsing south. But first flakes perhaps for many in the way south forum crew so that is cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 11 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I can already imagine this hitting the EZF wall then collapsing south. But first flakes perhaps for many in the way south forum crew so that is cool. Idk what if any updates have been done to the NAM but for me in years past if it wasn’t super over amped then that would normally spell trouble. 6z doesn’t even have a flake for anyone. Looks like the consensus minus the Euro have zilch for this. Is it just more or less the Euro is keying in on the NS vort differently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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