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GOOD CHANCE OF 1ST LIGHT SNOW EVENT VA / nw NC/ MD DEL MONDAY DEC 7


DTWXRISK
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4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

FWIW, Bernie Rayno is pretty interested and sees the chance for a couple inches in parts of Virginia (outside the mountains) and snow up to Baltimore potentially. 

  yesterday when I   was taking to him about this  he   thought I   was to  bullish on this....

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29 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

At first glance, it seems the new GFS is a step in the right direction. The vorts in New England seem to eject quicker, which doesn't suppress heights behind it as much as in the 12z run. Doesn't quite get it done yet, but a clear northwest shift in the precipitation field. Baby steps.

New:
gfs_z500_vort_us_11.png

Old:

gfs_z500_vort_us_12.png

it  is stunnignto me  hwo the GFS does this  with every   fooking  east coast storm

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18z GFS and 12z 72-84h GGEM each say flurries, out to sea with no significant northern stream development.

Time for improvements to show up though, at least there is some upper support for potential 1-2" snowmaker.

18z GFS finishes run with 10-15" storm on 20th, wonder what reality will bring on that time scale? 

Personally I think this will be a fairly decent winter compared to some recent busts, eventually one or two significant events, with a strong signal for persistent west coast ridge development the odds favor some good winter scenarios for the eastern U.S. 

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  18z  EPS  did NOT  cave
 

it didn’t not cave, didn’t look any better than 12z. 0z looks worse than 6z IMO. Might end up working for you and it could work for me if I was desperate enough to drive to Cville, but barring major changes (which there could’ve) I think it’s safe to say Euro/EPS is on an island and is slowly caving.
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18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


it didn’t not cave, didn’t look any better than 12z. 0z looks worse than 6z IMO. Might end up working for you and it could work for me if I was desperate enough to drive to Cville, but barring major changes (which there could’ve) I think it’s safe to say Euro/EPS is on an island and is slowly caving.

7 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z EURO caved, for those who still care.

  18z  EPS  did NOT  cave   

 

 

DO NOT  AGREE 

 

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


don’t want to argue with you about it because I respect you and know you are much more knowledgeable than me! I genuinely hope it holds steady with what it’s got.

 from  DC ARLINGton   perspective  I see what you mean   --  best stuff may  stay south of  you 

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1 hour ago, DTWXRISK said:

 from  DC ARLINGton   perspective  I see what you mean   --  best stuff may  stay south of  you 

You’re not wrong from the perspective you are analyzing this. But the majority of the people in this thread are in the Baltimore/DC area and so to them it’s looking like a fail. 

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11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I can already imagine this hitting the EZF wall then collapsing south.  But first flakes perhaps for many in the way south forum crew so that is cool.   

Idk what if any updates have been done to the NAM but for me in years past if it wasn’t super over amped then that would normally spell trouble. 6z doesn’t even have a flake for anyone. Looks like the consensus minus the Euro have zilch for this. Is it just more or less the Euro is keying in on the NS vort differently?

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