NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 How about the GFS? Does it count?GFS does have the uncanny ability to be right when it isn’t showing snow, so probably. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: We should stop the count. Gasoline and fire, huh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Oof yea GFS is DOA for 12z. I would love to use the excuse of convective feedback but that is probably pulling at straws at this point. DT said the GFS is trash and doesn't handle STJ properly. We're still in the game....if it's a fully loaded 6-shooter roulette game anyway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: DT said the GFS is trash and doesn't handle STJ properly. We're still in the game....if it's a fully loaded 6-shooter roulette game anyway. Look at the amplitude and orientation of that ridge. The axis is literally over top the shortwave. I doubt it's even meteorologically possible for it to do anything other than slide straight off the coast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 hour ago, mappy said: and this is why we don't make threads too soon. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 In all seriousness, with as delicate of a setup as this is with timing and spacing, I don’t think I’ll be giving up on this yet. Probably have to wait a few more cycles for that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: In all seriousness, with as delicate of a setup as this is with timing and spacing, I don’t think I’ll be giving up on this yet. Probably have to wait a few more cycles for that. Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 I don’t see suppressive high pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 #faitintheflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Ukie didn't seem to hold back all too much, interesting to see if the Euro is similar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 It's a little early so I'll cop to it if I'm wrong but I think the EURO will hold or improve from 06z based at hr66. edit: ninja'd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's a little early so I'll cop to it if I'm wrong but I think the EURO will hold or improve from 06z based at hr66. edit: ninja'd id be happy to see a period of light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 WB 12Z EURO...still a prayer... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Euro continues to show a stronger northern piece of energy compared to the GFS, allowing for some flakes on the front-end. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 47 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I don’t see suppressive high pressure If this does get squashed...and not saying it does...we dont know yet, but it would be the suppressive flow behind the bombing storm in Nova Scotia not a high that is the culprit. The upper level flow is pretty compressed and there are too many pieces of energy diving down, we would need a little more space between systems and for the energy to consolidate and phase into the southern feature a little further west. Instead pieces of NS energy are diving down on top of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Euro euro euro!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS does have the uncanny ability to be right when it isn’t showing snow, so probably. is that assertion based on anything close to like ya know ...science? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, DTWXRISK said: is that assertion based on anything close to like ya know ...science? nah, that one is a joke. I'll take it to banter next time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: In all seriousness, with as delicate of a setup as this is with timing and spacing, I don’t think I’ll be giving up on this yet. Probably have to wait a few more cycles for that. why give up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS does have the uncanny ability to be right when it isn’t showing snow, so probably. GFS still is BAD with east coast winter storms past like 60 hrs.... and really bad past 72 hrs. Consider the northeast Noreaster about to develops... 3 days the Low was in WVA / far sw VA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 These 2 features are the big problem. Instead of escaping northeast "clean" just in time...there are 2 pieces of NS energy diving in interacting with the bombing vortex to our northeast. Those pinwheeling features hold the vortex from escaping (fujiwara effect) and squash the heights so that nothing can amplify behind it. The euro has a healthy enough feature out ahead of the upper low to get some light snow up into the area but without solving that bigger problem to our northeast there is a pretty low cap on what this is capable of. But some minor improvements with those features and relax the flow over the top and this could become something. Time is running out though. Most likely we simply get to experience our first fail of the year courtesy of crappy spacing between waves. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: These 2 features are the big problem. Instead of escaping northeast "clean" just in time...there are 2 pieces of NS energy diving in interacting with the bombing vortex to our northeast. Those pinwheeling features hold the vortex from escaping (fujiwara effect) and squash the heights so that nothing can amplify behind it. The euro has a healthy enough feature out ahead of the upper low to get some light snow up into the area but the euro has been really overdone with energy in the mid range lately and without solving that bigger problem to our northeast there is a pretty low cap on what this is capable of. But some minor improvements with those features and relax the flow over the top and this could become something. Time is running out though. Most likely we simply get to experience our first fail of the year courtesy of crappy spacing between waves. good post/ analysis.... FWIW the GFS is mishandling the closed 500 low in Maine/ se Canada 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 15 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said: good post/ analysis.... FWIW the GFS is mishandling the closed 500 low in Maine/ se Canada Thanks. Glad you're back posting analysis again! There is still time and frankly all guidance has been pretty volatile and unstable with these NS vorts in the medium range but we need some help here. There likely will be error in those features but we need that error to break our way. I need a little more help up here than the southern half of this region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps shows more interaction with the 3 sw's but that pesky ne low is dug in like a tick . It is "better" hence why we get "some" snow. Mood flakes mostly. But even the euro dives some energy into the trough to our northeast and phases into that vortex which slows it down, amplifies it and creates an extension of the lower height field to its southwest which acts to compress the flow some over top of us. Some is still too much when you have a vortex just northeast of Maine! It's not hopeless...but we need another degree or two of separation between those features. Any little piece of energy that works in the wrong way is a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 43 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said: why give up? Truth. But basically what I was saying. I never do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If this does get squashed...and not saying it does...we dont know yet, but it would be the suppressive flow behind the bombing storm in Nova Scotia not a high that is the culprit. The upper level flow is pretty compressed and there are too many pieces of energy diving down, we would need a little more space between systems and for the energy to consolidate and phase into the southern feature a little further west. Instead pieces of NS energy are diving down on top of it. Thanks, good info It may carry itself out but not a high squashing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 12z EPS IS WETTER with a large precip shield and the event last longer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 At first glance, it seems the new GFS is a step in the right direction. The vorts in New England seem to eject quicker, which doesn't suppress heights behind it as much as in the 12z run. Doesn't quite get it done yet, but a clear northwest shift in the precipitation field. Baby steps. New: Old: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Hopefully..but I don't think it helps that the "middle " sw is ejecting east temporarily suppressing the flow out ahead .HH Euro will give us renewed interest The latest run looks much better to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 FWIW, Bernie Rayno is pretty interested and sees the chance for a couple inches in parts of Virginia (outside the mountains) and snow up to Baltimore potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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