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GOOD CHANCE OF 1ST LIGHT SNOW EVENT VA / nw NC/ MD DEL MONDAY DEC 7


DTWXRISK
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22 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO slides to the South.  I won’t stop watching until 0z Sunday, but no model is showing a widespread light event for most of the DMV.

70D0ABBF-AB8B-4124-9409-FF8862B03279.png

What is interesting is if you look at the precipitation pattern for summer and fall this map looks fairly realistic regardless of it being snow or rain

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2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

What is interesting is if you look at the precipitation pattern for summer and fall this map looks fairly realistic regardless of it being snow or rain

True.  The pattern has taken a lot of the storm tracks to our South.  6Z EPS is not showing much hope for those in DMV either.

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

GFS ...

4C975E23-1A5D-40D5-A81E-71639E1A0D5F.thumb.jpeg.c72bfd8f4a35c97473ac537167b4fe62.jpeg

This made me LOL as on the eve of Isaias we did a genny transfer switch test and there was a fault on a 7.2kV feeder under the parking lot and pretty pink flames shot up from the ground setting the grass on fire.  It was thundering too.  Ran out with a CO2 extinguisher and put out the grass once the OCR tripped.  This (pic) is pretty much what I saw...

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

you could see it coming but the 12z nam is a disaster

Yup, today/Saturday's storm lingering longer thru 57hrs was a good indicator that the storm would miss any type of phase. But then again, NAM. Not enthralled with the chances but snow showers in December don't sound like the end of the world. 

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

no. we dont need to do that either. 

Apologies, only if the models would support a storm for them that is. Not trying to backseat forecast in a subforum that doesn't belong to us ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Anywho, getting off topic, but the ICON seems to be getting Saturday's storm out of the way a bit earlier. Wonder how that'll translate to Tuesday's event given the extra spacing. 

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9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

anyone throwing in the towel on this already long shot storm based off the NAM taking a step back doesn’t deserve to be in this thread. Now if we lose the ICON...

i dont think we ever had the icon did we?

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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Oof yea GFS is DOA for 12z. I would love to use the excuse of convective feedback but that is probably pulling at straws at this point.

I would think GFS should be in deadly range at this point.  Even slight adjustments probably wouldn't help.  we'll get the next one perhaps. 

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