Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,604
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

GOOD CHANCE OF 1ST LIGHT SNOW EVENT VA / nw NC/ MD DEL MONDAY DEC 7


DTWXRISK
 Share

Recommended Posts

24 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

A map from a news weather hack in VA 

up to 2” in RIC and Cville

BB102E8F-0F89-451C-909C-5894A68927FE.jpeg

That’s bullish for the western zones, but I would love to be wrong about that!  Maybe the western upslopes have a chance of 1-3”, but here in the valley I don’t see it happening.  From Smith Mountain to Blackstone appears to be the best ULL pass and the place to be for this storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

That’s bullish for the western zones, but I would love to be wrong about that!  Maybe the western upslopes have a chance of 1-3”, but here in the valley I don’t see it happening.  From Smith Mountain to Blackstone appears to be the best ULL pass and the place to be for this storm.

welcome  to  3  days ago

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Buddy1987 sorry I got really busy today.  Was outside taking care of some yard work then had to do homework with my son and get done a report for a meeting tomorrow.  Not sure how much I can add at this point.  

1.thumb.png.8eea861921d9b766a0dbdf9193d96d84.png

There are several vorts diving into the trough behind the system exiting New England.  You can see the flow behind that system preventing this from amplifying and coming up the coast.  That system is just not exiting in time.   The southern system is picking up just a bit of gulf moisture right now though. 

2.thumb.png.735d8fe5730069b3762cfe3fb7ae9f2d.png

By late tonight/early morning the southern feature starts to merge and be absorbed into one of the two northern features...you can see the the more potent upper low here..in a good spot to pull up what little gulf moisture is available.  That actually would support a more significant expanse of precip if it wasn't for the suppressive flow behind the exiting storm really compressing things.   All the pieces are coming together much too late for anything significant...and the coastal low is developing well off the coast...but there is just a tiny bit of an inverted trough feature to the NW.  That adds a little moisture convergence.  

banding.thumb.png.7f979ebd3b92553248763719fd450321.png

Finally there is a bit of fgen over central and southeast VA early tomorrow morning.  This could be where a heavier band sets up for a time.   

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Where that fgen associated banding sets up is important because the low level temperature profile east of the mountains is not great.  This is not a setup where very light snow over a long period of time will amount to much.   

temp1.thumb.png.a1d5352f12ab9b38a126adb5d7250a34.png

You can see the temperatures above just before that fgen associated banding develops are not ideal for accumulations over east central VA.

temp2.thumb.png.8748655c42017388f5ff7fcaaa691f5d.png

As the banding develops you can see the effect on the surface temps due to evaporation cooling and pulling some cooler air down in the column in heavier precip.  

Temp3.thumb.png.3b4b6d83aa6d1af802371423cdc7be33.png

This shows the effect fully a few hours later.  This is a setup where outside the higher elevations you probably have to get under that band to really see much accumulating snow.  On top of that we are talking about a narrow band already...so this will likely be a pretty localized thing where some places get 2" under that band where a few miles outside have some snow tv and wet ground.  Where exactly that banding sets up will be a nowcast thing...but @DTWXRISK map above looks really good to me.  I wouldn't really change anything from that except I do wonder if the less than 1" area in lower elevations will accumulate much at all due to surface temps outside the heavier precip but now we are really getting picky with details over 1/2 of snow lol.  

Anyways...good luck.  Hope someone down there gets deathbanded to 3"  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Buddy1987 sorry I got really busy today.  Was outside taking care of some yard work then had to do homework with my son and get done a report for a meeting tomorrow.  Not sure how much I can add at this point.  

1.thumb.png.8eea861921d9b766a0dbdf9193d96d84.png

There are several vorts diving into the trough behind the system exiting New England.  You can see the flow behind that system preventing this from amplifying and coming up the coast.  That system is just not exiting in time.   The southern system is picking up just a bit of gulf moisture right now though. 

2.thumb.png.735d8fe5730069b3762cfe3fb7ae9f2d.png

By late tonight/early morning the southern feature starts to merge and be absorbed into one of the two northern features...you can see the the more potent upper low here..in a good spot to pull up what little gulf moisture is available.  That actually would support a more significant expanse of precip if it wasn't for the suppressive flow behind the exiting storm really compressing things.   All the pieces are coming together much too late for anything significant...and the coastal low is developing well off the coast...but there is just a tiny bit of an inverted trough feature to the NW.  That adds a little moisture convergence.  

banding.thumb.png.7f979ebd3b92553248763719fd450321.png

Finally there is a bit of fgen over central and southeast VA early tomorrow morning.  This could be where a heavier band sets up for a time.   

Love it!! Thanks a bunch brother. Just with any type of system these days down this part you don’t take for granted any opportunity with the hand Mother Nature has dealt last couple winters. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...