NorthArlington101 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 How is sun angle missing and "tick north" 1 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 30/25 here in Augusta County @ 1540’ A dusting is my bar, although I think I may score an inch. Frontogenesis/ best lift looks to the south and east of me on an east/west oriented oval ending south of Richmond. Anyways, should see first flakes of the winter. Best of luck to everyone!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 A map from a news weather hack in VA up to 2” in RIC and Cville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Some will get more than they got in the entire last season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 24 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: A map from a news weather hack in VA up to 2” in RIC and Cville That’s bullish for the western zones, but I would love to be wrong about that! Maybe the western upslopes have a chance of 1-3”, but here in the valley I don’t see it happening. From Smith Mountain to Blackstone appears to be the best ULL pass and the place to be for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 0z HeRDerPS went a little derpy, that is unless it knows something we don’t... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 55 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: That’s bullish for the western zones, but I would love to be wrong about that! Maybe the western upslopes have a chance of 1-3”, but here in the valley I don’t see it happening. From Smith Mountain to Blackstone appears to be the best ULL pass and the place to be for this storm. welcome to 3 days ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 @Buddy1987 sorry I got really busy today. Was outside taking care of some yard work then had to do homework with my son and get done a report for a meeting tomorrow. Not sure how much I can add at this point. There are several vorts diving into the trough behind the system exiting New England. You can see the flow behind that system preventing this from amplifying and coming up the coast. That system is just not exiting in time. The southern system is picking up just a bit of gulf moisture right now though. By late tonight/early morning the southern feature starts to merge and be absorbed into one of the two northern features...you can see the the more potent upper low here..in a good spot to pull up what little gulf moisture is available. That actually would support a more significant expanse of precip if it wasn't for the suppressive flow behind the exiting storm really compressing things. All the pieces are coming together much too late for anything significant...and the coastal low is developing well off the coast...but there is just a tiny bit of an inverted trough feature to the NW. That adds a little moisture convergence. Finally there is a bit of fgen over central and southeast VA early tomorrow morning. This could be where a heavier band sets up for a time. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 7, 2020 Author Share Posted December 7, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Where that fgen associated banding sets up is important because the low level temperature profile east of the mountains is not great. This is not a setup where very light snow over a long period of time will amount to much. You can see the temperatures above just before that fgen associated banding develops are not ideal for accumulations over east central VA. As the banding develops you can see the effect on the surface temps due to evaporation cooling and pulling some cooler air down in the column in heavier precip. This shows the effect fully a few hours later. This is a setup where outside the higher elevations you probably have to get under that band to really see much accumulating snow. On top of that we are talking about a narrow band already...so this will likely be a pretty localized thing where some places get 2" under that band where a few miles outside have some snow tv and wet ground. Where exactly that banding sets up will be a nowcast thing...but @DTWXRISK map above looks really good to me. I wouldn't really change anything from that except I do wonder if the less than 1" area in lower elevations will accumulate much at all due to surface temps outside the heavier precip but now we are really getting picky with details over 1/2 of snow lol. Anyways...good luck. Hope someone down there gets deathbanded to 3" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Buddy1987 sorry I got really busy today. Was outside taking care of some yard work then had to do homework with my son and get done a report for a meeting tomorrow. Not sure how much I can add at this point. There are several vorts diving into the trough behind the system exiting New England. You can see the flow behind that system preventing this from amplifying and coming up the coast. That system is just not exiting in time. The southern system is picking up just a bit of gulf moisture right now though. By late tonight/early morning the southern feature starts to merge and be absorbed into one of the two northern features...you can see the the more potent upper low here..in a good spot to pull up what little gulf moisture is available. That actually would support a more significant expanse of precip if it wasn't for the suppressive flow behind the exiting storm really compressing things. All the pieces are coming together much too late for anything significant...and the coastal low is developing well off the coast...but there is just a tiny bit of an inverted trough feature to the NW. That adds a little moisture convergence. Finally there is a bit of fgen over central and southeast VA early tomorrow morning. This could be where a heavier band sets up for a time. Love it!! Thanks a bunch brother. Just with any type of system these days down this part you don’t take for granted any opportunity with the hand Mother Nature has dealt last couple winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Radar fun to watch. Some precipitation did make it up to central ky but faltered. Looks close to 45 degrees northeast move to me for all of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Light snow just south of Roanoke - 2700ft. 32.8F currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Disc said: Light snow just south of Roanoke - 2700ft. 32.8F currently. Hope you can get a nice inch this morning! Enjoy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Snow flurries here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, NoVaWx said: Snow flurries here Yeah. I'm getting some pixie dust flakes here in Herndon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Pixies in Purcellville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 28F. No flurries that I can see, but some radar returns in western HoCo and northern MoCo right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Flurries. Slight dusting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Very light dusting on the ground just NE of Germantown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Very light dusting just a little NW of Richmond... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Racked up about 1". Temp down to 27. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Bottomed out overnight at 27, 2nd-coldest night this season IMBY. Temp up to 29.7 at 7:30am. Today would be pixie dust FTW, should it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 8 hours ago, DTWXRISK said: welcome to 3 days ago I have been following this thread since you made it. The forecast I was commenting on was from yesterday, but okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 41 minutes ago, Disc said: Racked up about 1". Temp down to 27. Nice little dusting here no complaints. 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Trace in Damascus and Germantown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 About half an inch here and snowing, 27°. Going on a Jeb walk. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 ^It's snowing and the horses have flipped upside down. We truly are in the end times. 3 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: ^It's snowing and the horses have flipped upside down. We truly are in the end times. Lol! I can’t figure it out on my phone! Oh well! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 10 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Lol! I can’t figure it out on my phone! Oh well! It is perfect for this year, leave it! lol About the same here, btw, 1/2 inch at the house, LESS in town. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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