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GOOD CHANCE OF 1ST LIGHT SNOW EVENT VA / nw NC/ MD DEL MONDAY DEC 7


DTWXRISK
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3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

This is absolute gold! Lmao

It’s missing the granddaddy of them all..the holy grail of fail...the Famous ”SSW event”...the event that hardly anyone understands but endorses because they don’t want to seem ignorant but they are desperately clinging to life and don’t want to check into the panic room

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5 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Clear skies and down to 33.2 with a 26.1 DP. Nice radiational cooling last 2 hours.

Awesome. You got a little elevation on me up that way. 35.2 27.4 dew would equate to right at 32 for evaporational cooling purposes if we can’t drop much more. 

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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Awesome. You got a little elevation on me up that way. 35.2 27.4 dew would equate to right at 32 for evaporational cooling purposes if we can’t drop much more. 

Higher elevations should do pretty good. I'm 28/25 right now at 2700ft.

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17 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It’s missing the granddaddy of them all..the holy grail of fail...the Famous ”SSW event”...the event that hardly anyone understands but endorses because they don’t want to seem ignorant but they are desperately clinging to life and don’t want to check into the panic room

For next revision I’d recommend adding a box saying:    “How Much for Philly?”

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@Disc @wxdude64 here’s the area of precip I’m watching, as it has recently began to blossom. The NWS national radar has a pretty good loop to see where it has just recently taken off as well. I’m hoping the vort(s) end up giving us a nice little surprise wrt overachieving later on this evening. Disc is there any concern for downsloping or overall anything with the precip struggling once it encounters the apps that you see?

F5DF5CD0-346B-4102-BDF6-E38D471B2A65.png

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11 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

@Disc @wxdude64 here’s the area of precip I’m watching, as it has recently began to blossom. The NWS national radar has a pretty good loop to see where it has just recently taken off as well. I’m hoping the vort(s) end up giving us a nice little surprise wrt overachieving later on this evening. Disc is there any concern for downsloping or overall anything with the precip struggling once it encounters the apps that you see?

F5DF5CD0-346B-4102-BDF6-E38D471B2A65.png

Shouldn't be much of any issue. This isn't like a clipper or northwest flow. Moisture flow is mostly southwest.  Lift takes over and produces our precip as the vort swings through. 

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Hrrr has been increasing 1 hour rates . Especially as the system moves east . Maybe where the best frontogen ends up 

hrrr-conus-md-snow_1hr_10to1-7346000.png

could be wrong but I think most of the previous runs where the HRRR extends the snowfalll up to D.C. it's when the coastal takes over. Think our (our being D.C. area) best hope is that the coastal low is closer to the coast. I'm thinking its too late for us on the vort pass/initial wave/whatever the better terminology would be.

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I think it’s how long the NS vort can produce moisture for DC until the coastal takes over and the precip collapses south toward the coastal low and then its over for DC metro and that’s if it ever gets started.  Low dews and minimal moisture means many of us will have to squint to see flakes.   We’ve seen this before.  It’s not fun for the north of I 64 crew 

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I think it’s how long the NS vort can produce moisture for DC until the coastal takes over and the precip collapses south toward the coastal low and then its over for DC metro and that’s if it ever gets started.  Low dews and minimal moisture means many of us will have to squint to see flakes.   We’ve seen this before.  It’s not fun for the north of I 64 crew 

Makes sense. Knew it was possible I had it totally backwards but I felt bold enough to post it anyways. Appreciate the insight
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