WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Wait ... so I’m not getting two inches? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 I think part of the problem is a low develops too far off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 I highly doubt the models are wrong here and this is coming much farther north than Fredericksburg, but I'll take a pleasant surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Wait ... so no one is getting two inches? Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Wait ... so I’m not getting two inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 52 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I really enjoy your in depth synopsis of things. Can you give me a brief write up as to what you expect for us in the southern MA from this and what some of the things to watch for other than radar and wrt the disturbance rippling along as well as to the NS energy diving down etc.. Thank you. I’m outside doing yard work right now but I’ll throw something up when I get in. But I do think places in central VA will see some light snow and a coating to 2” in general with maybe 3” in some spots. Most likely higher elevations in west central VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 19z HRRR gets snow into DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 19z HRRR gets snow into DC. The plot thickens. All aboard. Looked decent enough but never long enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 22 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 19z HRRR gets snow into DC. The earlier runs had it here. I care a lot more about here than I do DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 In fact the HRRR did what it always does. It drew me in and then pulled the rug LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: The earlier runs had it here. I care a lot more about here than I do DC As do I...if you get snow in this situation then so am I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 25 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 19z HRRR gets snow into DC. Never trust the end of a model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 I literally need about 30 air miles. That isn’t an impossibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The earlier runs had it here. I care a lot more about here than I do DC 12K gets us into the snow. But not DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Wait ... so I’m not getting two inches? If you look down you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 24 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The plot thickens. All aboard. Looked decent enough but never long enough Story of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Fwiw it doesn`t seem likely that we see any light accumulations further north into the DC metro area, but it can`t be completely ruled out if moisture can make it a little farther than anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Just clouds in the forecast here, but 20% chance of light snow for Easton. Might see a flake or 3 driving south in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 7 hours ago, Buddy1987 said: 12z 3k NAM captures precip field a little better than previous image captured. We will see if gfs shows something similar to what NAM and Euro are now starting to key in on. @Disc starting to look a little closer to more of a “benchmark” track for southern portions of the forum? Low east of ILM south of Hatteras. Good spot for us down here, but worried about marginal temps. High elevations obviously gonna do better and maybe even slight accumulation, but think lower spots just see "white rain." Now if we can get a good meso band for an hour or two, lower elevations may do pretty well too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 Just curious of what u guys think of the RAP Model? Its showing a consistent 1-3" of snow for most of central/southern VA... not sure how accurate it is , but its showing it run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 34 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Just curious of what u guys think of the RAP Model? Its showing a consistent 1-3" of snow for most of central/southern VA... not sure how accurate it is , but its showing it run to run My experience with it is it’s like a lottery ticket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I literally need about 30 air miles. That isn’t an impossibility. In fact the high that there exists in in a great location on southern tip of Hudson . When we have snow to our west that extends northward to the PA border as the low moves eastward that snow passes over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 What does the hi res rapid refresh RAP NAM WRF RPM show for our storm now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2020 Share Posted December 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What does the hi res rapid refresh RAP NAM WRF RPM show for our storm now? Looks like the latest HRRR gets some very light echoes into the DC area but it’s more or less kind of grasping at straws. Hey anything is better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Hour 16 gets many of us in some mood flakes. A few more ticks north and the OBS thread will be rockin! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 We need the northern most area of precip to continue to develop over northwestern most Alabama and into extreme southern TN. That will be what to watch tonight for those tracking. Also the disturbance rippling through to enhance anything that develops and crosses the mountains. Latest HRRR beefs up precip with 23z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 How close to game time did the 2000 miracle get? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How close to game time did the 2000 miracle get? Lol I remember looking at the radar of that storm when it was in NC and not understanding the forecast. It was coming due north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How close to game time did the 2000 miracle get? Lol HA! About 8hrs if I remember correctly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 How close to game time did the 2000 miracle get? Lol 2 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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