DTWXRISK Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 I don't want to make too much of this situation for Monday in this area and I'm not prepared to say that I am barking at this point but the Monday event does have the potential to be a bit of a surprise This image shows two 500 mb maps. The map on the left is the 12z Thursday European model valid at 36 hours or Friday night. The map on the right the upper air map from the same 12z Thursday operational European model VALID evening of DEC 7. IMO what is particularly striking about it is that if you compare the two will notice that the upper air patterns are s almost identical. But of course there are some key differences. Notice that on the Friday night we have no closed 500 low -- known as the 50/ 50 LOW in southeast Canada but we will have one according to the European model Monday night. Also note that on Friday night we have two short waves -one in the Northern Jet Stream over Michigan and the southern one in Tennessee and Georgia which is about to go negative. And that of course is going to trigger the coastal LOW and its rapid intensification. On Monday night DEC 7 we have a southern stream s/w which is further to the south which is still tilted slightly positive. The northern shortwave is closed off and this is located in Virginia and Pennsylvania. The end result is that because we have the closed 500 low in southeast Canada these two short waves are going to phase further to the South and east ….which means that the coastal LOW is going to form further to the South and probably off the coast. This is a timing problem. If the southern s/w were to come in more neutral or negatively tilted over Georgia then you would end up with a much stronger Coastal LOW and the potential for a surprise snowstorm in portions of Virginia and Maryland on Monday December 7. These two images show only light snow Monday morning in much of Virginia and temperatures are clearly cold enough. The 18z Euro is somewhat more aggressive with this burst of snow and this is supported by the 18z EPS. I think we will have to wait until after the Saturday system is gone before we will have a really good idea about what if anything is going to happen in the lower Middle Atlantic states on December 7th. Right now I think there is pretty good chance for light snow event lasting most of the morning / midday for a good portion of the Dominion and perhaps portions of Southern Maryland and Delaware. Maybe it will ll just be snow showers. Maybe it will end up being something a little more 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 @DTWXRISK nice write up. Good to see you back! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Is there where we are posting model disco for it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, nj2va said: Is there where we are posting model disco for it? I guess? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 It's time for a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 I mentioned the 18z RGEM sorta as a joke, but the 00z RGEM continues to look nice. I'm sure it won't be great (or even good) at its longer ranges, but worth seeing what its biases might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Vort is stronger on the GFS vs 18z. Closed off at 500 at H90. ETA: Aaaaaaand there she goes off the coast. Nothing outside of extreme SE VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 00z 18z It's progress! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 I’m still in. Nothing to lose when you got nothing to lose. Needs a lot of ticks however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 CMC looks better than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 CMC looks better than 12zI’ll say. GEFS really did look noticeably better too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 It’s a start... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 CMC is close to beating my entire total from last winter in Arlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: CMC is close to beating my entire total from last winter in Arlington. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 That map has me at zero and that’s close to beating my last winter total. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 TREND IS MY FRIEND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 The 0z UKMET really has me intrigued now for a quick hit sneaky snow event. Big improvement from 12z. Trends seem to be in favor of the snow fans so far tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Disc said: The 0z UKMET really has me intrigued now for a quick hit sneaky snow event. Big improvement from 12z. Trends seem to be in favor of the snow fans so far tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 EURO looks likely to deliver a light event at 84. Snow approaching NOVA/DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 00z: 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Any chance of this making it's way up to Jersey? I'll take even light snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 hour ago, DTWXRISK said: AND W E GOT OUR SELVES A MID ATLANTIC SNOWSWTORM 1 hour ago, DTWXRISK said: Most excellent. I'd take a nice one inch snowfall (keeping expectations low) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 06z NAM looks nice at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 16 minutes ago, yoda said: 06z NAM looks nice at the end of the run yes it does. Here we go. See if GFS is in soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 8 hours ago, DTWXRISK said: I don't want to make too much of this situation for Monday in this area and I'm not prepared to say that I am barking at this point but the Monday event does have the potential to be a bit of a surprise I am really glad you are posting here! Thansk DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Thanks for the write up DT. This will the the thread for the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Looks very cold on surface and aloft. I heard stuff about there not being HP.. but I dont think thats going to be much of a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 30 percent chance of snow or rain has been added to the zones for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 GFS ... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 6z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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