LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 On 2/25/2021 at 6:50 PM, jm1220 said: I’ve yet to see NWS or commercial agencies’ seasonal temps and precip predictions differ much from the climo Nina or Nino maps when these come out, with a couple degrees added for the background climate warming. I pay almost zero attention to most of these since there seems to be little analysis behind them. I pay more attention to the analyses posted here that look at other factors that can override the background ENSO state. thats why I'm strongly against enso based forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Chris this correlation doesn't account for February, it must be even lower now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 There is some inkling of TeleConnection support around this time too. Crossing of the Neutral Zone by the NAO,PNA? Otherwise the TC's look hopeless through March 15. 18Z is averaging 50degs.(41/60) for Week 2. Meanwhile the GFS is learning to climb mountains: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 Why is snowman19 seemingly reacting to every post but never posing himself? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 why is your avatar a 17 year old photo of me 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 28 minutes ago, the moors in england said: Why is snowman19 seemingly reacting to every post but never posing himself? Gorilla warfare? As always ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 24 minutes ago, forkyfork said: why is your avatar a 17 year old photo of me Darn it all, Forky; you just demystified your present and previous avatars. As always ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 31 minutes ago, the moors in england said: Why is snowman19 seemingly reacting to every post but never posing himself? counterpoint do you really want him to post 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, rclab said: Darn it all, Forky; you just demystified your present and previous avatars. As always ... it's a photo from the eastern days after i had wisdom tooth surgery 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: it's a photo from the eastern days after i had wisdom tooth surgery Understood and understandable. As always ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 56 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: counterpoint do you really want him to post Having a counterpoint to refute at times is always good in any field and in any discussion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: why is your avatar a 17 year old photo of me I liked the old forky better than the current iteration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 thanks for your feedback 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 5 hours ago, the moors in england said: Why is snowman19 seemingly reacting to every post but never posing himself? I mean it's pretty obvious- he's 5-posted and knows if he posted those would get used up pretty quickly, and then people would post in response and he wouldn't be able to respond back, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 5 hours ago, forkyfork said: it's a photo from the eastern days after i had wisdom tooth surgery I knew it looked familiar somehow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 5 hours ago, forkyfork said: it's a photo from the eastern days after i had wisdom tooth surgery So I take it he saved it from back then to use now? Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 On 2/26/2021 at 9:42 AM, Dan76 said: TWC https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2020-10-14-winter-2020-2021-temperature-outlook-united-states They kinda switched FEB TWC is an IBM company and IBM was loudly advertising their powerful AI based forecasting prowess. So this forecast is perhaps a reality check, there is still lots of room for improvement in this space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 I want to know what snowman19 thinks about this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 1 hour ago, etudiant said: TWC is an IBM company and IBM was loudly advertising their powerful AI based forecasting prowess. So this forecast is perhaps a reality check, there is still lots of room for improvement in this space. it's another one of those corrupt corporate tools now. They hiked up prices for accessing WU data and most of my third party programs can no longer afford to work with WU data anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 9 hours ago, the moors in england said: I liked the old forky better than the current iteration. Good morning, england. I like forky regardless of the iteration. As always ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: I want to know what snowman19 thinks about this winter. How I imagine things for him mid February 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 28, 2021 Share Posted February 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Nibor said: How I imagine things for him mid February When even a five post limit can’t save you. As always ..... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 I always hate the time of the year when the inevitability of Spring is staring me in the face. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Dark Star said: I always hate the time of the year when the inevitability of Spring is staring me in the face. Winter to Spring gives meaning to the lyrics of Mona Lisa; “many dreams have been brought on your doorstep. They just lie there and they die there”. As always .... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 15 hours ago, Dark Star said: I always hate the time of the year when the inevitability of Spring is staring me in the face. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 4, 2021 Share Posted March 4, 2021 4 hours ago, Cfa said: Caution, Cfa, the coal you get in your stocking during the traditional Solstice heatwave will be less than useless. As always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 8 hours ago, Cfa said: Great time to walk with your lady friend. Don't miss it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 Not to overhype this, but I found this illusion to be pretty amazing. Meteorology-related too: https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/mar/05/ship-hovering-above-sea-cornwall-optical-illusion 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 if NYC has a minimum temperature 32 or lower in April it would be the first time since 1976-77 that the city had freezing temperatures from October to April...other years... 1976-77 1975-76 1974-75 1969-70 1925-26 1917-18 1889-90 1887-88 1879-80 1876-77 1870-71 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 8, 2021 Share Posted March 8, 2021 On 3/6/2021 at 6:19 PM, uncle W said: if NYC has a minimum temperature 32 or lower in April it would be the first time since 1976-77 that the city had freezing temperatures from October to April...other years... 1976-77 1975-76 1974-75 1969-70 1925-26 1917-18 1889-90 1887-88 1879-80 1876-77 1870-71 wow 4x between 1969 and 1977 none after and very rarely before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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