justinj Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, EpicHECS said: lol, I do see that now. It very well may have interrupted a string of storms. So difficult to just keep threading the needle all winter...and that's why it's so beautiful when it happens. Albeit as rare as it is. Let me ask you guys: Historically, are we more likely to see a major snowstorm in late February and through March, or already in the season (like Feb 1 and prior)? We had good nor’easters March 2018 here on long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: February 4, 1996: 8 degrees what about below zero there, Don? thats a strong possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: You’re not missing anything. The core of the cold won’t reach us. Don any ideas why extreme outbreaks directly hitting us has become so rare? I remember an old weather book showing a direct discharge of arctic air from eastern Canada was not extraordinary rare in the 80s and prior but has become much more rare now? Is warming (which affected the oceans first, as they are natural heat sinks) changing the pathways of air currents such that they are more likely to affect the center of the continent now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don any ideas why extreme outbreaks directly hitting us has become so rare? I remember an old weather book showing a direct discharge of arctic air from eastern Canada was not extraordinary rare in the 80s and prior but has become much more rare now? Is warming (which affected the oceans first, as they are natural heat sinks) changing the pathways of air currents such that they are more likely to affect the center of the continent now? It’s likely a whole combination of factors related to climate change. Rapid Arctic warming has had some impact on the jet stream. The warm oceans impact ridge-trough positions and convection (e.g., the MJO now spends more time in the warmer Maritime Continent Phases). Cold air masses are, in general (not always), less expansive and less severe in magnitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: what about below zero there, Don? thats a strong possibility Last subzero day: December 23, 1989: -1 degree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Last subzero day: December 23, 1989: -1 degree. what ended up being a bad winter for us lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It’s likely a whole combination of factors related to climate change. Rapid Arctic warming has had some impact on the jet stream. The warm oceans impact ridge-trough positions and convection (e.g., the MJO now spends more time in the warmer Maritime Continent Phases). Cold air masses are, in general (not always), less expansive and less severe in magnitude. the fascinating thing about the MJO is that it originates in the Indian Ocean doesn't it- and the Indian Ocean is warming more rapidly than any other ocean on earth? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Last subzero day: December 23, 1989: -1 degree. Don, didn’t CPK do it again in the recent past? As always ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 hours ago, rclab said: Don, didn’t CPK do it again in the recent past? As always ..... That was Dallas. Central Park’s last day was February 14, 2016 with a -1 reading. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChineseFood4Snow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 There may be a better way to post this here, but I am cracking up from it! https://twitter.com/_victoraalvarez/status/1360112486368874496?s=20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 52 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: That was Dallas. Central Park’s last day was February 14, 2016 with a -1 reading. Don did JFK not get below zero since 1985? That seems really strange as I recorded -3 here in SW Nassau 5 miles southeast of the airport in Jan 1994. We were easily below zero that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don did JFK not get below zero since 1985? That seems really strange as I recorded -3 here in SW Nassau 5 miles southeast of the airport in Jan 1994. We were easily below zero that month. No. Threshold Search for Minimum Temperature (F) New York-Kennedy Airport Area (NY) JFKthr 9 Lat/Lon/Elev: / / Years: 1948 to 2021 Dates: 01-01 to 12-31 Condition is: Minimum Temperature (F) less than 0 To sort multiple columns, hold SHIFT while clicking on the columns. Date MINT MAXT MEAN PCPN SNOW SNOWD 1961-02-02 -1 19 9.0 0.00 0.0 4 1963-02-08 -2 28 13.0 0.00 0.0 0 1977-01-17 -1 8 3.5 0.00 0.0 7 1982-01-17 -1 22 10.5 0.00 0.0 6 1985-01-21 -2 10 4.0 0.00 0.0 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, donsutherland1 said: No. Threshold Search for Minimum Temperature (F) New York-Kennedy Airport Area (NY) JFKthr 9 Lat/Lon/Elev: / / Years: 1948 to 2021 Dates: 01-01 to 12-31 Condition is: Minimum Temperature (F) less than 0 To sort multiple columns, hold SHIFT while clicking on the columns. Date MINT MAXT MEAN PCPN SNOW SNOWD 1961-02-02 -1 19 9.0 0.00 0.0 4 1963-02-08 -2 28 13.0 0.00 0.0 0 1977-01-17 -1 8 3.5 0.00 0.0 7 1982-01-17 -1 22 10.5 0.00 0.0 6 1985-01-21 -2 10 4.0 0.00 0.0 3 Thanks, Don! So they got to 0 in 1994 but not below? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks, Don! So they got to 0 in 1994 but not below? Yes. That is correct. Climatological Data for New York-Kennedy Airport Area, NY (ThreadEx) - January 1994 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Avg Temperature Avg Temperature Departure HDD CDD Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth Sum 1041 591 - - 1191 0 4.92 7.1 - Average 33.6 19.1 26.3 -6.4 - - - - 0.4 Normal 39.1 26.3 32.7 - 1001 0 3.16 6.3 - 1994-01-01 42 25 33.5 -0.2 31 0 0.02 0.0 1 1994-01-02 51 33 42.0 8.4 23 0 0.03 0.0 0 1994-01-03 35 30 32.5 -0.9 32 0 0.22 0.6 0 1994-01-04 43 24 33.5 0.2 31 0 0.35 0.2 1 1994-01-05 34 22 28.0 -5.2 37 0 T T T 1994-01-06 26 18 22.0 -11.0 43 0 0.01 0.1 0 1994-01-07 32 23 27.5 -5.4 37 0 0.47 0.6 T 1994-01-08 32 17 24.5 -8.3 40 0 0.27 0.1 1 1994-01-09 26 15 20.5 -12.2 44 0 0.00 0.0 1 1994-01-10 26 16 21.0 -11.6 44 0 0.00 0.0 1 1994-01-11 36 17 26.5 -6.1 38 0 0.00 0.0 1 1994-01-12 34 30 32.0 -0.5 33 0 0.45 1.0 T 1994-01-13 39 32 35.5 3.0 29 0 0.00 0.0 T 1994-01-14 36 22 29.0 -3.4 36 0 T T 0 1994-01-15 22 8 15.0 -17.4 50 0 T 0.1 0 1994-01-16 16 4 10.0 -22.3 55 0 0.00 0.0 T 1994-01-17 45 14 29.5 -2.8 35 0 1.18 0.4 0 1994-01-18 37 6 21.5 -10.8 43 0 0.26 0.7 T 1994-01-19 10 0 5.0 -27.3 60 0 0.00 0.0 T 1994-01-20 15 3 9.0 -23.3 56 0 T T T 1994-01-21 23 6 14.5 -17.8 50 0 0.00 0.0 T 1994-01-22 33 17 25.0 -7.4 40 0 0.00 0.0 0 1994-01-23 33 20 26.5 -5.9 38 0 0.00 0.0 0 1994-01-24 47 31 39.0 6.6 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 1994-01-25 38 33 35.5 3.0 29 0 T T 0 1994-01-26 33 9 21.0 -11.6 44 0 0.28 3.3 2 1994-01-27 34 2 18.0 -14.6 47 0 0.07 T 3 1994-01-28 51 34 42.5 9.8 22 0 1.31 0.0 1 1994-01-29 43 34 38.5 5.7 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 1994-01-30 36 26 31.0 -1.8 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 1994-01-31 33 20 26.5 -6.4 38 0 0.00 0.0 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Low of 6 now expected in Austin on Mon night along with 2-4” snow. I’ll have to look to see when temps have been that cold there. It must be several decades at least. And that amount of snow is also incredibly unusual. When I lived there over 2 winters 2015 and 2016 we had a light glaze one morning and that was it. A few mornings below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Low of 6 now expected in Austin on Mon night along with 2-4” snow. I’ll have to look to see when temps have been that cold there. It must be several decades at least. And that amount of snow is also incredibly unusual. When I lived there over 2 winters 2015 and 2016 we had a light glaze one morning and that was it. A few mornings below freezing. nothing to plow it with there-it will be cold for several days-will cripple the area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: nothing to plow it with there-it will be cold for several days-will cripple the area.... Nope. The light glaze I mentioned shut the city down. My office told everyone to work from home and it was a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 26 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Low of 6 now expected in Austin on Mon night along with 2-4” snow. I’ll have to look to see when temps have been that cold there. It must be several decades at least. And that amount of snow is also incredibly unusual. When I lived there over 2 winters 2015 and 2016 we had a light glaze one morning and that was it. A few mornings below freezing. The last time they dropped below 10° was 1989. Time Series Summary for Austin-Bergstrom Airport Area, TX (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1949 -5 2 2 1989 6 0 3 1951 8 1 4 2010 10 0 5 1983 11 0 - 1964 11 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The last time they dropped below 10° was 1989. Time Series Summary for Austin-Bergstrom Airport Area, TX (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1949 -5 2 2 1989 6 0 3 1951 8 1 4 2010 10 0 5 1983 11 0 - 1964 11 0 Thanks! The airport is in a more exurban area outside of downtown so it typically gets a couple degrees colder than the city, however the CAA might be strong enough for it not to matter. Camp Mabry is the more representative temp for downtown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. That is correct. Climatological Data for New York-Kennedy Airport Area, NY (ThreadEx) - January 1994 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Avg Temperature Avg Temperature Departure HDD CDD Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth Sum 1041 591 - - 1191 0 4.92 7.1 - Average 33.6 19.1 26.3 -6.4 - - - - 0.4 Normal 39.1 26.3 32.7 - 1001 0 3.16 6.3 - 1994-01-01 42 25 33.5 -0.2 31 0 0.02 0.0 1 1994-01-02 51 33 42.0 8.4 23 0 0.03 0.0 0 1994-01-03 35 30 32.5 -0.9 32 0 0.22 0.6 0 1994-01-04 43 24 33.5 0.2 31 0 0.35 0.2 1 1994-01-05 34 22 28.0 -5.2 37 0 T T T 1994-01-06 26 18 22.0 -11.0 43 0 0.01 0.1 0 1994-01-07 32 23 27.5 -5.4 37 0 0.47 0.6 T 1994-01-08 32 17 24.5 -8.3 40 0 0.27 0.1 1 1994-01-09 26 15 20.5 -12.2 44 0 0.00 0.0 1 1994-01-10 26 16 21.0 -11.6 44 0 0.00 0.0 1 1994-01-11 36 17 26.5 -6.1 38 0 0.00 0.0 1 1994-01-12 34 30 32.0 -0.5 33 0 0.45 1.0 T 1994-01-13 39 32 35.5 3.0 29 0 0.00 0.0 T 1994-01-14 36 22 29.0 -3.4 36 0 T T 0 1994-01-15 22 8 15.0 -17.4 50 0 T 0.1 0 1994-01-16 16 4 10.0 -22.3 55 0 0.00 0.0 T 1994-01-17 45 14 29.5 -2.8 35 0 1.18 0.4 0 1994-01-18 37 6 21.5 -10.8 43 0 0.26 0.7 T 1994-01-19 10 0 5.0 -27.3 60 0 0.00 0.0 T 1994-01-20 15 3 9.0 -23.3 56 0 T T T 1994-01-21 23 6 14.5 -17.8 50 0 0.00 0.0 T 1994-01-22 33 17 25.0 -7.4 40 0 0.00 0.0 0 1994-01-23 33 20 26.5 -5.9 38 0 0.00 0.0 0 1994-01-24 47 31 39.0 6.6 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 1994-01-25 38 33 35.5 3.0 29 0 T T 0 1994-01-26 33 9 21.0 -11.6 44 0 0.28 3.3 2 1994-01-27 34 2 18.0 -14.6 47 0 0.07 T 3 1994-01-28 51 34 42.5 9.8 22 0 1.31 0.0 1 1994-01-29 43 34 38.5 5.7 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 1994-01-30 36 26 31.0 -1.8 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 1994-01-31 33 20 26.5 -6.4 38 0 0.00 0.0 0 low 0 high 10 is an unusually small range, NYC also had a high of 10 that day...what do you think the reason was that JFK was warmer than NYC for lows during both subzero arctic outbreaks that month, Don? JFK is typically colder than NYC for lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I hate the term "winter storm" It's either a snow storm, an ice storm, or a mixed storm. "winter storm" is a huge misnomer and needs to be banned from the lexicon because these storms can occur in other seasons too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: low 0 high 10 is an unusually small range, NYC also had a high of 10 that day...what do you think the reason was that JFK was warmer than NYC for lows during both subzero arctic outbreaks that month, Don? JFK is typically colder than NYC for lows. Close proximity to the Jamaica Bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Thanks! The airport is in a more exurban area outside of downtown so it typically gets a couple degrees colder than the city, however the CAA might be strong enough for it not to matter. Camp Mabry is the more representative temp for downtown. Sure, it will be quite a temperature drop for them after reaching 85° earlier in the month. Climatological Data for Austin Area, TX (ThreadEx) - February 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Avg Temperature Avg Temperature Departure HDD CDD Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 2021-02-01 67 41 54.0 1.3 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2021-02-02 69 40 54.5 1.7 10 0 0.00 0.0 M 2021-02-03 77 45 61.0 8.0 4 0 0.00 0.0 M 2021-02-04 85 55 70.0 16.9 0 5 0.00 0.0 0 2021-02-05 61 44 52.5 -0.8 12 0 0.06 0.0 0 2021-02-06 75 48 61.5 8.1 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 2021-02-07 70 40 55.0 1.5 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 2021-02-08 76 51 63.5 9.8 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 2021-02-09 64 46 55.0 1.1 10 0 T 0.0 0 2021-02-10 46 37 41.5 -12.5 23 0 0.04 M M 2021-02-11 37 31 34.0 -20.2 31 0 0.45 0.0 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 WSWatch for Houston. Don't see that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: WSWatch for Houston. Don't see that much Dallas will drop below zero and have teens for highs. Insanity. There will massive impacts on travel and infrastructure. We already saw it with the pileup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 239 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1133 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021/ /Through Saturday/ Key Messages (now through Saturday): (1) Isolated bands of lake effect snow have developed near some of the lakes across North Texas. Some of these snow bands may result in localized reductions in visibility to less than one mile, and quick snow accumulations of up to one-half inch. LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Saturday evening onward/ Key Messages: (1) A historic winter storm is poised to impact North and Central Texas, with impacts beginning as early as Saturday morning, continuing through Monday. (2) Extremely cold temperatures, rivaling the December 1989 Arctic Outbreak, are forecast on Sunday and into Monday, with prolonged much below normal temperatures expected to continue through next week. (3) Major impacts resulting in severe stress to the region`s infrastructure (particularly power, water, and highways) are likely. Regional travel will be crippled for days. (4) Additional frozen precipitation will be possible toward the middle of next week, though confidence is low in the details at this time. Perhaps the most serious threat from this winter storm will be the cold temperatures. High temperatures will likely remain in the teens across the entire CWA on Monday. Combined with strong and gusty northerly winds, wind chill factors during the day will likely hover near 0 F. With the expected snowpack by Monday night, and the Arctic high building farther south, temperatures will plunge into the lower single digits across the region, with subzero temperatures likely north and west of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan Area. These will be some of the coldest temperatures in the region since the December 1989 Arctic Outbreak. Wind chill factors will likely be subzero across the region. Given that the region is highly unaccustomed to temperatures this low, significant impacts to the region`s infrastructure are expected. In the December 1989 Arctic Outbreak, there were numerous instances of water pipes (both exposed and buried) bursting as they froze in the extreme cold. In addition, the power grid is likely to approach record demand levels given the duration of the cold in addition to the magnitude. It cannot be stressed enough that this cold will be very dangerous. With the icy road conditions, if one were to become stuck attempting to travel, the cold temperatures would pose a serious threat to one`s life. Persons are urged to remain home and off the roads, and if one must venture out, to include necessary items to survive in extremely cold weather as it could be some time before someone were able to rescue you. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I've got a friend down in Dallas. He grew up on LI but as you could imagine, people are freaking out down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Northshore Ski Bowl was open for business this afternoon and evening. Backyard skiing with a few inches of powder over a 12" base. I will learn to ski those trees, I will learn to ski those trees, I will learn to ski those trees... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just a comment: Usually when posters here say that they don't want extreme weather "x", I don't believe it, only because I don't believe it when those same words come out of my own mouth. Instinctively we all seem to actually want to see it no matter what we are saying/typing. Even ice storms - I say I don't want it, but when the temperature eventually gets above 32, and it turns to plain 'ol rain, and the ice starts melting off the cars, if I'm being honest I have to admit that I feel a little sad. That's a problem, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 47 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Just a comment: Usually when posters here say that they don't want extreme weather "x", I don't believe it, only because I don't believe it when those same words come out of my own mouth. Instinctively we all seem to actually want to see it no matter what we are saying/typing. Even ice storms - I say I don't want it, but when the temperature eventually gets above 32, and it turns to plain 'ol rain, and the ice starts melting off the cars, if I'm being honest I have to admit that I feel a little sad. That's a problem, right? I don't want to loose power for a week in the dead of winter. However an ice storm would be cool. Make lemonade. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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