mahk_webstah Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 22 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Silly question. But any chances of blizzard warnings if the winds ramp up? I asked that yesterday. The forecast seems to have winds gusting past 30 in the snow will get powdery or later in the day. I would think they would be blizzard conditions somewhere east and north of Concord New Hampshire and west of Portsmouth and Portland Maine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Euro looks spot on from 00z. Maybe a hair weaker, but a little slower to depart. Looks like a good band here this evening. Think the fine folks with chicken coops will do just fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Change over time will be the key for most of us here in CT, Especially west of the river. If we aren’t snow by 11-12 noon, it’s over here imo. Still 40 degrees here. NWS has 2-3 inches here...that’s reasonable imo. We’ll see what happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 I don’t understand the GYX map near MA/NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 NW RI... 4-6”? 5-8”? Any thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t understand the GYX map near MA/NH border. Looks way underdone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Good morning, Seldom post here. 1) A couple of things. Snow ratios in MA/CT will in my opinion be down to 6 to 1 or something like...falling at 33F. That means half of those 10 to 1 amounts, and I say ditto Kuchera. 2) On NWS collaborated graphics... Need to wait 2 hours for a full complements of updated cycle. Example...the 330A-4A deadlines... wait till the 5A or 6A updated graphics. That way you can be assured of getting their basis information for the the NWS forecast. Here's my take from the NYC forum since I am enthused. Dramatic changes should unfold next 8 hours. Follow local NWS forecasts, statements and your own interp of the models. I am going with the NAM3K and EC. However, realize the HRRRX (X for experimental- not our moderator) is not as robust as yesterday. Now we're in HRRR territory (inside 18 hours, so I'll use the operational HRRR to temper my expectations). GGEM and RGEM are not changing over to snow nearly as fast. So what follows, may be a little on the high side. Please USE NWS as official guidance. mPING will be useful. Banding is developing now and this is going to be a swat for for portions of ne CT and eastern-central MA with thunder by midday and then afternoon bands of 1-2"/hr for a couple of hours-wet snow glop high terrain with valleys much less than elevations (6 or 7 to 1 ratios?). The wind gusts of 45-55 MPH late this afternoon and evening there will, in my non science opinion, make for a major power outages in the high terrain. This is based on my anticipation of minimum 4" of wet snow on trees -wires - road signs combined with increasing wind gusts this afternoon knocking down limbs etc. Note: I could see some ASOS's in the 4+" axis being muted-jammed accumulating wet snow. Anticipating mixing with snow extreme ne PA, NW NJ and Orange County NY northward, 7A-9A with possibly an inch or so high terrain above 1000 feet, trace valleys. NW CT and w MA should mix and change to wet snow around 10A-Noon, central MA and ne CT around Noon-2P and Boston itself may be delayed til 7-9P. Follow local forecasts for amounts in CT-MA...but i can see 5-10" Worcester Hills and 4" parts of the Litchfield and Hartford Counties in CT terrain above 1000 feet with ending there not til mid afternoon, ORH some time evening and Boston sometime after midnight. (EC has 15-18" from what I can see but this may not take into account melting, compacting and snow ratios) se CT I think will see isolated damaging wind gusts near 60 MPH this afternoon. Have fun with this... and I sure hope EC and NAM 3K are right. Otherwise much less impact. 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Thank you Walt. Your wisdom carries a lot of weight on here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t understand the GYX map near MA/NH border. Exactly. Down that way and around concord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Change over time will be the key for most of us here in CT, Especially west of the river. If we aren’t snow by 11-12 noon, it’s over here imo. Still 40 degrees here. NWS has 2-3 inches here...that’s reasonable imo. We’ll see what happens? Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t understand the GYX map near MA/NH border. Looks way different than the one they posted to social media an hour or 2 ago. Timestamp is like 4am too, weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 i seen it before the heavy snow was further west than forecast . i say hartford county should be in the warning to many weather people just go by where models show it i dont . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 minute ago, blizzard24 said: i seen it before the heavy snow was further west than forecast . i say hartford county should be in the warning to many weather people just go by where models show it i dont . I do always love your optimism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 minute ago, wx2fish said: Looks way different than the one they posted to social media an hour or 2 ago. Timestamp is like 4am too, weird. Yeah. Here is that one. Seems more in line with BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 40.8. Ticking down but a ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Da fuk? KMHT 051132Z 0512/0612 VRB04KT P6SM -RA FEW024 OVC029 FM051400 36011KT 4SM -RA OVC005 FM052200 35016G28KT 4SM +RA OVC004 WS020/00050KT FM060300 32016G31KT 1/2SM SN OVC015 FM060600 31016G30KT P6SM OVC025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Thanks for the insight Walt. I agree that we’re prob looking something more like 6-10 for high terrain interior MA and not those 15” totals. I guess 12” could happen if we start seeing a changeover soon. Melting layer on BOX radar looks to be around 1500-2000 feet. ORH went from 40F to 38F last hour. I suspect mixing will start around 36F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 High and dry in the Catskills (as I suspected) but the atmosphere feels like it's got a lot of moisture to it. Once this winds up its going to absolutely pound in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: Da fuk? KMHT 051132Z 0512/0612 VRB04KT P6SM -RA FEW024 OVC029 FM051400 36011KT 4SM -RA OVC005 FM052200 35016G28KT 4SM +RA OVC004 WS020/00050KT FM060300 32016G31KT 1/2SM SN OVC015 FM060600 31016G30KT P6SM OVC025 If it's not SN or +SN at MHT at 22z this is an epic, epic bust. Not how I'd write the TAF, but hey I haven't written one in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Thanks for the insight Walt. I agree that we’re prob looking something more like 6-10 for high terrain interior MA and not those 15” totals. I guess 12” could happen if we start seeing a changeover soon. Melting layer on BOX radar looks to be around 1500-2000 feet. ORH went from 40F to 38F last hour. I suspect mixing will start around 36F Yeah I still like 4-8'' here and 6-12'' in the hills. Going to be tough to put up double digits, esp outside of elevation when it's a 6-8 hour paste thump, even if it's a hell of a thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 minute ago, DomNH said: If it's not SN or +SN at MHT at 22z this is an epic, epic bust. Not how I'd write the TAF, but hey I haven't written one in years. Agree, and could (and should imo) even be earlier than that. Most NWS offices don't pay too much attention to TAFs, as evident here. 8-12" in 3 hours...okay you think that NWS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 24 minutes ago, wdrag said: Good morning, Seldom post here. Hope you do more often this winter. It's great having you post here we all appreciate your insight and experience. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Let's keep trying to get in the ball park... Cant be absolutely sure on my taker but I like the way things are going. M PING has snow in se NYS (Ulster County). Are those Wachusetts Cameras live??? Two of them look good... if someone can answer that one. Thank you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Taunton NWS map is not close to matching for Merrimack valley with GYX Tan chucking em deep for ASH /LWM GYX 2-3” Tuff call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 The only reason i dont post in New England sub forum... I wouldn't have time for family day-day and I am Covid furloughed .. once I return to PT work in the spring, my posts even NYC will be far fewer. Just fortunate that we're still in good health. Later.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Snowing now at 1kft in Litchfield County. Still on the fence here in the valley - can definitely see monster rates arguing for a couple hour isothermal thump. Can also see myself crying at cat paws at noon lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 nowcast/obs thread is up btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 I have my things packed. Gonna wait for NAM and how the radar looks around then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Euro and NAM continue to advertise a hellacious thump for a few hours once we flip.... Maybe I’m way high and it just never materializes... but I’m going 3-5” for this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Snowing now at 1kft in Litchfield County. Still on the fence here in the valley - can definitely see monster rates arguing for a couple hour isothermal thump. Can also see myself crying at cat paws at noon lol Ya gonna be a nail biter for sure....hope we’re mixing by 10:30-11:00? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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