PhineasC Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 The SV and WB maps are in totally different galaxies. Not even close to each other. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It got more precip up here based on looking at tiny graphics on my phone at least. .25"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The SV and WB maps are in totally different galaxies. Not even close to each other. Crazy. Not sure why that is. It’s possible that sv sets snow algorithm to 0 when temp is >32. With that said, wb could end up being too high in places due to weaker forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Man this current radar looks fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Man this current radar looks fun. Light rain here. Such a fooking waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 30 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said: 0z saturday euro sounding ar 7pm sat has BOST at 37 Td 34... thats NOT snow at 30 hrs Temp is 34 Td is 28 and its about to END 26 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said: no one looks at the EURO or 0 NAM soundings DANGER WILL WEENIE ROBINSON DANGER Let's revisit 7pm tomorrow to see if the changeover has not happened in Boston metro. Haven't seen anyone here tonight say they are expecting the 10:1 snow maps. Likewise, surely you're not claiming the SV maps you posted with 2-4" in ORH is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Let's revisit 7pm tomorrow to see if the changeover has not happened in Boston metro. Haven't seen anyone here tonight say they are expecting the 10:1 snow maps. Likewise, surely you're not claiming the SV maps you posted with 2-4" in ORH is likely. No of course not SV is often way too conservative.... ORH 70% chance of 10" 50% of 15" 25% chance of 18" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 JUST IN CASE YOU DID NOT NOTICE... since the time I left ... Oct /Nov 2016 we have NOT have BIG widespread northeast US snowstorms--- ya know like RDU/ GSO to BOS snowstorm big KU event we have been close a few times DEC 8-10 2017 Jan 3-5 2018 March 6-8 2018 DEC 12-13 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Let's revisit 7pm tomorrow to see if the changeover has not happened in Boston metro. Haven't seen anyone here tonight say they are expecting the 10:1 snow maps. Likewise, surely you're not claiming the SV maps you posted with 2-4" in ORH is likely. Yea, I usually use the eurowx maps that he does, but they are grossly underdone right now probaby because of what Ekster said above. Normally they are accurate, but the models struggle with dynamic cooling, which is why the soundings are so warm. I would split the difference between those and the weenie 10:1 charts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said: JUST IN CASE YOU DID NOT NOTICE... since the time I left ... Oct /Nov 2016 we have NOT have BIG widespread northeast US snowstorms--- ya know like RDU/ GSO to BOS snowstorm big KU event we have been close a few times DEC 8-10 2017 Jan 3-5 2018 March 6-8 2018 DEC 12-13 2019 I wish you would post more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said: JUST IN CASE YOU DID NOT NOTICE... since the time I left ... Oct /Nov 2016 we have NOT have BIG widespread northeast US snowstorms--- ya know like RDU/ GSO to BOS snowstorm big KU event we have been close a few times DEC 8-10 2017 Jan 3-5 2018 March 6-8 2018 DEC 12-13 2019 So close with this one (right?) Not for south of DC but for a heck of a lot more people. Agree, would love for you to post more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Lol DT.....come at me bro for 2010...Bye Ryan Howard......whatever....hope this opening salvo of 2020 ends wire to wire with epic pack....LFG 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: I have no idea what Ekster is doing there. Seems like Providence, hotel next to the airport. Great great time. Can we do those Big Conference meetings again?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 6z NAM actually a tic west and warmer than 0z, also maybe a hair faster exit... better for NNE folks, not as good for eastern SNE Still would support a sloppy 2-4" to Boston metro Spots of 20+ in NH, ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherlvr Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 I believe the EURO is correct for my area here in Franklin, NH at Webster Lake. I live at 215 FASL right on the lake. In October we had no more than a coating on my deck. I am not expecting anything more than an inch or two from this storm. My lake is still fluid and at 46 deg not even close to 39 deg. This is a giant heat sink that must be overcome to get to freezing for surrounding area. I really hope the NWS reconsiders their warnings with these latest model runs. This is causing anxiety during a already dire situation with COVID19. My son who is studying meteorology and is from Texas has stated this major winter storm is going to happen and worse his professor is backing this based on certain models! We need to look at all models and not cherry pic the ones that look good. If you look at this from a numerical and astro physics along with statistical and probability point of view it just doesn’t add up. There just isn’t enough cold air and dynamics to support this large volume of frozen precipitation forecasted, unless this converges perfectly which at this time is a very low probability. A Model is a probability as well as a forecast at that given point in time not 24 hours later. I understand we had a AN November but to hype our first marginal cold disturbance is wrong. It gives future Mets the wrong perspective and teaches them to rely to much on models and not to look at the data and say does this make sense? Math, physics statistics and probability theory must also be used and understood. Does this probability event shown by a model make sense. Forecasting by wish casting or model emotion does no good too the meteorology profession. I am sorry if I upset anyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 6z NAM looking better for NH...more of a turn north and kicks more precip back west. That would get the Lakes Region back firmly into the midlevel goodies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 18 minutes ago, Weatherlvr said: I believe the EURO is correct for my area here in Franklin, NH at Webster Lake. I live at 215 FASL right on the lake. In October we had no more than a coating on my deck. I am not expecting anything more than an inch or two from this storm. My lake is still fluid and at 46 deg not even close to 39 deg. This is a giant heat sink that must be overcome to get to freezing for surrounding area. I really hope the NWS reconsiders their warnings with these latest model runs. This is causing anxiety during a already dire situation with COVID19. My son who is studying meteorology and is from Texas has stated this major winter storm is going to happen and worse his professor is backing this based on certain models! We need to look at all models and not cherry pic the ones that look good. If you look at this from a numerical and astro physics along with statistical and probability point of view it just doesn’t add up. There just isn’t enough cold air and dynamics to support this large volume of frozen precipitation forecasted, unless this converges perfectly which at this time is a very low probability. A Model is a probability as well as a forecast at that given point in time not 24 hours later. I understand we had a AN November but to hype our first marginal cold disturbance is wrong. It gives future Mets the wrong perspective and teaches them to rely to much on models and not to look at the data and say does this make sense? Math, physics statistics and probability theory must also be used and understood. Does this probability event shown by a model make sense. Forecasting by wish casting or model emotion does no good too the meteorology profession. I am sorry if I upset anyone. Enjoy all of the snow neighbor. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 WSW expanded to include Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 3k nam is a thrashing from here to Phin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Multiple buns for this. 10:1 and kuchie for wizzy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherlvr Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: Enjoy all of the snow neighbor. Will see I hope this is one of those anomalies will let my son tell me I told you so:). He will say see dad there is more than just physics, and math. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 06z 12k Nam shafts most of ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Just now, Weatherlvr said: Will see I hope this is one of those anomalies will let my son tell me I told you so:). He will say see dad there is more than just physics, and math. Lol I’m just to your east and it’s 35.7°. 46° would make you the warmest in NH. Even MHT is 43° in the UHI. Salisbury, Webster, and Franklin Falls are all 34/35°. btw Webster Lake is 400’ AMSL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherlvr Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’m just to your east and it’s 35.7°. 46° would make you the warmest in NH. Even MHT is 43° in the UHI. Salisbury, Webster, and Franklin Falls are all 34/35°. btw Webster Lake is 400’ AMSL. No that is my lake temp 46 deg currently it is 34 deg air temp currently. Though lake temp will have an effect to drop below 32 deg since I live about less than 100ft from it. Sorry for the confusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Looks like Ekster drank all night flipping caps at his family Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Gotchya. The 46° lake won’t have much influence for you. I’m going to assume you got a lot of snow in Oct 2011. I assume you’re on the north side of the lake so that would be an offshore wind anyway. 30mph winds and heavy rates will just laugh at Webster Lake. Hopefully it all works out. Again, enjoy the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherlvr Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: Gotchya. The 46° lake won’t have much influence for you. I’m going to assume you got a lot of snow in Oct 2011. I assume you’re on the north side of the lake so that would be an offshore wind anyway. 30mph winds and heavy rates will just laugh at Webster Lake. Hopefully it all works out. Again, enjoy the storm. Wasn’t here in 2011 was in Amherst. Yes got snow and lost power not fun. Moved her in 20I8, and am on the SW side of the lake so no we get on shore winds very nasty. I will enjoy the storm and let you know what happens. Thanks for the reply’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 My wager: 7.0" BOS, 15.0" ORH. Wind goes north at Logan despite the nearby dryslot with CCB from there to I-91 and that amount can get dumped in 2 hours in this setup and the CCB is pivoting east... we'll see. And consider anything over that for BOS a win for me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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