40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, ROOSTA said: Greetings to all. Checking in from afar. Boy do I miss being in New England. As the models turn from every run to run. More things change the more of the same I see. On FB I've already put my fore warning of the threat, like being careful of word choice in assessment. Life here in general side. Health is everything, I will spare y'all from the details. Thankfully my fallback is tracking the storms. So to keep this brief...LOL IT GONNA SNOW! Move back...miss you in the hill in Arlington 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 The N/stream contribution to this is just rounding the arc over NW Terr of Canada where the sampling comes into question. It seems the GFS ‘might’ be missing some physical presentation in the grids - that’s my suspicion. The Euro really isn’t deviating as much as we are accusing. The deviations are being accentuated by the focus subjected need for an idealized solution. We are 84 hrs from max and the track is 150 ... 100 mi ... not horrendous. Just means more rain ..put it this way ... should more phasing prevail ... which major guidance sucked worse ? When it comes to model assessment got to keep our personal biases for what we want to see happen ...out of it. Anyway I thought the Euro would hold and frankly it did - albeit deviating just enough to be disappointing for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, ROOSTA said: Greetings to all. Checking in from afar. Boy do I miss being in New England. As the models turn from every run to run. More things change the more of the same I see. On FB I've already put my fore warning of the threat, like being careful of word choice in assessment. Life here in general side. Health is everything, I will spare y'all from the details. Thankfully my fallback is tracking the storms. So to keep this brief...LOL IT GONNA SNOW! Miss ya Don. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Where’s @OceanStWx to give us some model sensitivity data to help the peeps out jonesin for some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 The NAM took a step toward the RGEM in this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The N/stream contribution to this is just rounding the arc over NW Terr of Canada where the sampling comes into question. It seems the GFS ‘might’ be missing some physical presentation in the grids - that’s my suspicion. The Euro really isn’t deviating as much as we are accusing. The deviations are be accentuated by the focus subjected need for an idealized solution. We are 84 hrs from max and the track is 150 ... 100 mi ... not horrendous. ..put it this way ... should mire phasing prevail ... which major guidance sucked worse ? When it comes to model assessment got to keep our personal biases for what we want to see happen ...out of it. any I thought the Euro would hold and frankly it did - albeit deviating just enough to be disappointing for SNE The 12z Euro wasn't as impressive as it looked for sne....it was only plowable in the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, 78Blizzard said: The NAM took a step toward the RGEM in this run. Great. Two shitty modes agree. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Great. Two shitty modes agree. Euro is an outlier right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Great. Two shitty modes agree. Well, at least it was going in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 What i have taken so far, Is we are going to be waiting a few more cycles to get some consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Well, the NAM is terrible here. Went from big snow to zilch in 6 hours. Classic NAM. A blend of Euro and NAM/GFS still has me as ground zero. A whiff seems like a real possibility now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is an outlier right now Correct. I wonder if it’s right though? Often that’s the case when it refuses to cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Well, the NAM is terrible here. Went from big snow to zilch in 6 hours. Classic NAM. A blend of Euro and NAM/GFS still has me as ground zero. A whiff seems like a real possibility now. I don't thing anything has been determined or off the table, Its going to depend on phasing and where that happens as well as how soon or late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Well, the NAM is terrible here. Went from big snow to zilch in 6 hours. Classic NAM. A blend of Euro and NAM/GFS still has me as ground zero. A whiff seems like a real possibility now. Whiff is likeliest possibility. GFS is the best model at this point. It may be a little flat and progressive sometimes in bias but it has led the way for quite some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Well, the NAM is terrible here. Went from big snow to zilch in 6 hours. Classic NAM. A blend of Euro and NAM/GFS still has me as ground zero. A whiff seems like a real possibility now. Speaking of lamentations, your whiff is our potential win here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 NAM is a late phase that moves east before turning NE and getting the low off of Nantucket. This is one of the more complicated setups I’ve seen. You have the s/w (more like an ULL) stretched SW-NE from OK to MO. Another similar one over nrn Mexico. It’s then a matter of when does the s/w over OK/MO get sucked east. A real timing issue there. The other issue is the s/w coming into Lake Superior at hr 72 and how or if that acts as a kicker in a way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Whiff is likeliest possibility. GFS is the best model at this point. It may be a little flat and progressive sometimes in bias but it has led the way for quite some time now. That’s very possible. I think we are rooting for different scenarios between our two areas however. You need the bigger wound up Euro look, I need the 18z NAM look. I need a smaller shift west than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: Correct. I wonder if it’s right though? Often that’s the case when it refuses to cave. I have seen it refuse to cave on an early phase and be wrong...I am sure NYC and w CT can name an instance. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM is a late phase that moves east before turning NE and getting the low off of Nantucket. This is one of the more complicated setups I’ve seen. You have the s/w (more like an ULL) stretched SW-NE from OK to MO. Another similar one over nrn Mexico. It’s then a matter of when does the s/w over OK/MO get sucked east. A real timing issue there. The other issue is the s/w coming into Lake Superior at hr 72 and how or if that acts as a kicker in a way. I still favor the late phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have seen it refuse to cave on an early phase and be wrong...I am sure NYC and w CT can name an instance. It could easily quietly cave overnight on a 00z run when everyone is asleep. The Euro likes to do that. GFS seems to like to cave at 06z on the other hand. Models are cowards like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 The lack of cold air source makes this difficult to become too invested in. Relying almost entirely on dynamics is not the odds I like. I’ll be more interested to see what this looks like at this time tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: Correct. I wonder if it’s right though? Often that’s the case when it refuses to cave. As of 12z it still had the Ukie and GGEM, for what they are worth. We have seen the US vs foreign models battle many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 00z icon still looks like it’s going to be amped like 18z...we’ll see. A lot has to do with the tilt of the ULL obviously. 00z NAM, GFS much more neutral and positive until too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 Similarly ... these run variances in the NAM are well within that guidance’s typical error of synoptic scales at intervals beyond 36 hrs. wouldn’t sweat this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: The lack of cold air source makes this difficult to become too invested in. Relying almost entirely on dynamics is not the odds I like. I’ll be more interested to see what this looks like at this time tomorrow night. Yeah it’s kind of a shit sandwich in SNE in this one. A zonked system jack-potting Saranac Lake NY on one end and a whiff on the other...and then some in-between runs of garbage 37F and rain. We need the exotic nuclear bomb solutions with a pretty narrow track to work in SNE. Up north obviously has some more wiggle room. Esp N NH into interior ME. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 9 minutes ago, PhineasC said: As of 12z it still had the Ukie and GGEM, for what they are worth. We have seen the US vs foreign models battle many times. Yes. And we know who usually wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Ha, ICON is over NYC and then over my Fanny. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it’s kind of a shit sandwich in SNE in this one. A zonked system jack-potting Saranac Lake NY on one end and a whiff on the other...and then some in-between runs of garbage 37F and rain. We need the exotic nuclear bomb solutions with a pretty narrow track to work in SNE. Up north obviously has some more wiggle room. Esp N NH into interior ME. It’s nice to be able to track something, but kind of wish this stayed as zero potential for SNE, like we first were thinking, and got out of the way, and the 7th-8th with the better airmass was still on the table. This will almost undoubtedly rain on the vast majority of us for the most part, due to the fact we are having to rely on a mega bomb on the perfect track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 The ICON is even more west. Definitely two camps here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 I don’t care how garbage the airmass is... the NAM would be pretty close to flipping eastern ma as this thing exits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now