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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


Typhoon Tip
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43 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Sort of out on a limb here but here's our forecast. Wish me luck. 

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Ryan!!!!!! You sneaky devil you. I didn't realize tray was you. Question, I am at about 450' on Rattlesnake mountain. I know from your map I am in the 3-6 range. Is my elevation enough to get me towarss the higher end of those numbers? Anyway, just wanted to thank you again for your forecasts. You are my favorite MET. 

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2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Some NWS maps in case you missed them

For Boston metro, flipping an hour sooner/exiting an hour later would be how we can get to 4”+

Some things to watch at 0z, and there was a hint of slower exit on some guidance today

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That's no ending timer to seems kind of early for the Hartford area. At least from what I am seeing

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Its getting snow right to the coast now.

Yup.... I think it’s definitely going to flip here... just a matter of if it’s sloppy coating or more. The euro gets us into the CCB for a bit and it doesn’t lift out as fast as other models, hence the 6-10” amounts even down here.

I mean... lob of 30-40% if you want for the clowns.. that’s still high end advisory 

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5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Still 12-15 here so basically the same as 12z. But others further west are getting slowly bled to death on this so one weenie on a rowboat in the ocean can get chillier rain. 

Are you looking at Kuchara or something?

BML went from 13.5” to 7.5”.  That was a decent little shift.  We went from 1.8” to 0.6” :lol:.

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

wxsniss that's a cool feature. Haven't seen that before and i looked at their "winter weather page today" > is that where it's located?

I saw it on boston.com lol... originally posted on their twitter.

Yeah I think I've seen it 1 or 2 times before, so I don't think it's generated for most storms. And obviously not written in stone.

Will be a fun afternoon nowcasting!

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9 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:
22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:
Best run yet here... ticked east and slowed a bit... just as we discussed earlier 

15" of 8:1 is going to be a bitch to shovel and snowblow. Lots of heart attacks coming

Your bit of elevation there may make a difference too... be interesting to see if there’s a low level gradient to the snow there.  

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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Are you looking at Kuchara or something?

BML went from 13.5” to 7.5”.  That was a decent little shift.  We went from 1.8” to 0.6” :lol:.

I don't have access to the 18z Euro maps, but the 12z Euro had 17" at my exact lat/long. Just eyeballing the 18z map it looked just a little lower (different color scale from Pivotal).

Anyway, too much parsing of one run. :) 

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20 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yup.... I think it’s definitely going to flip here... just a matter of if it’s sloppy coating or more. The euro gets us into the CCB for a bit and it doesn’t lift out as fast as other models, hence the 6-10” amounts even down here.

I mean... lob of 30-40% if you want for the clowns.. that’s still high end advisory 

You could see on some of the model runs the last 2 days that when the SLP got to the cape, It slowed some tracking thru the GOM into DE Maine or the Bay of Fundy.

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19 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:
32 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:
Best run yet here... ticked east and slowed a bit... just as we discussed earlier 

15" of 8:1 is going to be a bitch to shovel and snowblow. Lots of heart attacks coming

Dont make me have to come up there and show you how to shovel heavy wet snow!

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You got some strong Wood for N Orh county 

How often do they miss out?   It’s more angst than wood. LOL.   
I live 25 minutes from Berkshire East and 40 from Mount Snow and have been amazed over the past 10 years how much better central mass does than southern Vermont or the Berkshires.

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26 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Still 12-15 here so basically the same as 12z. But others further west are getting slowly bled to death on this so one weenie on a rowboat in the ocean can get chillier rain. 

I wouldn’t worry much there on small ticks given your orographically favorable location on coastals. If I was west of the whites like over toward Littleton I would probably start sweating the ticks east more. It’s easier for them to go from like 12” to 3” than your area since they rely on the midlevels a lot more.  

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