Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 HRRR has a great grasp on elevation changes, at least here in CT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 21 minutes ago, bch2014 said: LOL, yes-The famous hinterlands of Worcester, Lowell, Nashua, and Manchester! Nowhere to stop! Lol there ain’t much CT to Henniker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Realist.... 12" storms aren't that common...even here I'll tell you what.. if I get over 12" I will buy you and Hippie a beverage of your choice at the next in person GTG...unless Cold Miser comes, then he buys Haha well I went back and deleted it , bc I realize it was mostly whineminster and he’s gone lol. Your a bit cautious we could say wise , your not in the MPM camp either . Shaking with each 3 hr QPF panel that models roll out . By the way if you clear every 6 hours this will probably be over a foot for you , otherwise ya you may see 15” that turns into 11” mashed taters when you throw a ruler in after . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: HRRR has a great grasp on elevation changes, at least here in CT Ray would throw his laptop out the window if that verified. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 What are we thinking for dangerous road time? NAM seems a little quick compared to the rest of guidance. My guess is around noon-1 pm but it’s so hard to time when the column cools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 That HRRR Map looks a little weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 24 minutes ago, bch2014 said: LOL, yes-The famous hinterlands of Worcester, Lowell, Nashua, and Manchester! Nowhere to stop! Lol I meant after Springfield probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, DomNH said: What are we thinking for dangerous road time? NAM seems a little quick compared to the rest of guidance. My guess is around noon-1 pm but it’s so hard to time when the column cools. Nam was like 10-11, GFS was like 2 or so it looked We need a tickle East on gfs by go time and we should be golden by noon , otherwise wagons a bit W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That HRRR Map looks a little weak This will get you inflated 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 hour ago, tamarack said: Last month we had a short period of "stuff" that rattled thru the branches and on the leaves just like IP. However, what landed on my wool jacket was opaque and quite irregular in shape, obviously flakes very heavily rimed, or half-melted and refrozen. 12-18? I'll have to look at GYX's "90%/most likely/10%" table again. An hour ago it had Farmington at 0/10/11". It was a pretty tough event for our probabilistic snowfall (maybe they all are?). For a long time this looked like an all or nothing event, so you were either going to hug the 10th or 90th percentile. We thought snowy, so we went 90th. Now that models have come into better agreement (especially interior) on snow occurring our probabilities are settling into something between the goal posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I never said I would get skunked... I had just been leery of a 12" storm until a few hours ago. I had been thinking 6-9"... now I'd go 9-12" here Not you. Whineminister worried. It’s fine to be cautious regardless where one lives...doesn’t have to be full DIT ATT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 hours ago, OceanStWx said: In convection is most likely riming that is producing that, but in certain events actual sleet has been observed. OKX did in Feb 2013. oh ...yeah, if we get into elevated instability layers... could be an unusual warmer layer at 700 with feeding convection all over top a shallower growth region.. weird action... In early January 1994 we had a column like that - not thundering per se...but moderate sleet actually hurt on exposed skin drilling slant wise in wind at 19 F along side a snow growth fall out ...probably a saturated 800 layer with some lift ...but now that I think about it OE was also involved with that. I think we had 1/2 of solid sleet accumulated along with 3 to 5" dry snow over eastern Mass... The best is the Kanasas City thunderstorm at 24F Freezing Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: This will get you inflated If 80% of that happened I can’t imagine the power outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Rain building in now down here...looking at the radar, can't help but wonder what this could have been down here if it was 15 degrees cooler to start. Just some lower dews to start would have helped....47.1°/38.5° isn't going to cut it down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Nam was like 10-11, GFS was like 2 or so it looked We need a tickle East on gfs by go time and we should be golden by noon , otherwise wagons a bit W Yeah I agree...got some weenie met buddies coming to hang out, drink beers, and watch the storm. Don't want them to get stuck, but they're mets too so guess it's not my job to babysit them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: oh ...yeah, if we get into elevated instability layers... could be an unusual warmer layer at 700 with feeding convection all over top a shallower growth region.. weird action... I early January 1994 we had a column like that - not thundering per se...but moderate sleet actually hurt on exposed skin drilling slant wise in wind at 19 F along side a snow growth fall out ...probably a saturated 800 layer with some lift ...but now that I think about it OE was also involved with that. I think we had 1/2 of solid sleet accumulated along with 3 to 5" dry snow over eastern Mass... The best is the Kanasas City thunderstorm at 24F Freezing Rain In Jan 94 I had pouring rain at 9 degrees. Was an amazing experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, Spanks45 said: Rain building in now down here...looking at the radar, can't help but wonder what this could have been down here if it was 15 degrees cooler to start. Just some lower dews to start would have helped.... We would have had a nice overruning event before the coastal. Easy 12+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, DomNH said: Yeah I agree...got some weenie met buddies coming to hang out, drink beers, and watch the storm. Don't want them to get stuck, but they're mets too so guess it's not my job to babysit them. Are you out by airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Are you out by airport Northernmost end of Main St. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 hour ago, IowaStorm05 said: I think it’s called “graupel”? We got it all the time in Reno, NV and yes it’s quite an origraphic/vertical motion and lapse rate kinda deal Sort of... graupel is partially refrozen aggregate pieces ...which is sort of the same thing .. but those under thundersnow/CSI banding...they are larger and really do appeal as though they were suspended by updraft for a period - graupel is snow falling into an incomplete melting layer. The end result may be similar but not quite, and also different formation sequencing - But alas ...many of these process in this crazy business in reality share processing/physics so ... the seams can be rather "cloudy" - haha... puns are free by the way - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I'll tell you what, not an easy forecast here in CT. Probably a bit conservative but we think it's reasonable. Definitely hammered home the impacts and power outage potential in north-central/NE CT. I'll be biting my nails all the way to the end of this one. Just a question out of curiosity.. why do you have the 2-4 and 5-10” line thru half of Tolland? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 CT folks , away from S coast , if Ryan is Guns Blazing that’s all you really need to know . DIT knows what’s coming . Damage , lots of Damage . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 37 minutes ago, dendrite said: Probably 50+ microbars in there. Look at that temp drop in that omega, cuts right through the dendritic zone. Massive flakes aggregates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, DomNH said: Northernmost end of Main St. Unless things tick East ,I’m probably heading out to Temple NH Around 1030 am. Gonna bring some blankets , warm clothes a shovel in case I’m stuck , some food Etc, and start to hike up Miller state park Auro road . It’s a nice peaceful walk and by the time I get down I hope I’m buried . Maybe grab a room In Inn a few Miles away at 1050’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Look at that temp drop in that omega Run through some of those Bufkit soundings. You have a well mixed 500-1000 ft layer in the upper 30s that wipes out to isothermal around freezing in two hours as the rates go heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: CT folks , away from S coast , if Ryan is Guns Blazing that’s all you really need to know . DIT knows what’s coming . Damage , lots of Damage . Damage ahead? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just a question out of curiosity.. why do you have the 2-4 and 5-10” line thru half of Tolland? He looked up your address to make sure he left you in the 2-4 lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Damage ahead? Maybe not lots bc the window is a bit short but wide spread 8-10” of wet snow I see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Unless things tick East ,I’m probably heading out to Temple NH Around 1030 am. Gonna bring some blankets , warm clothes a shovel in case I’m stuck , some food Etc, and start to hike up Miller state park Auro road . It’s a nice peaceful walk and by the time I get down I hope I’m buried . Maybe grab a room In Inn a few Miles away at 1050’ That's probably a prime spot for this. Nice open summit > 2k ft. too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Need an obs thread. Flurries and 35 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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