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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


Typhoon Tip
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5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Realist....  12" storms aren't that common...even here

I'll tell you what.. if I get over 12" I will buy you and Hippie a beverage of your choice at the next in person GTG...unless Cold Miser comes, then he buys

Haha well I went back and deleted it , bc I realize it was mostly whineminster and he’s gone lol. Your a bit cautious we could say wise , your not  in the MPM camp either . Shaking with each 3 hr QPF panel that models roll out .

By the way if you clear every 6 hours this will probably be over a foot for you , otherwise ya you may see 15” that turns into 11” mashed taters when you throw a ruler in after .

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Just now, DomNH said:

What are we thinking for dangerous road time? NAM seems a little quick compared to the rest of guidance. My guess is around noon-1 pm but it’s so hard to time when the column cools. 

Nam was like 10-11, GFS was like 2 or so it looked 

We need a tickle East on gfs by go time and we should be golden by noon , otherwise wagons a bit W 

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Last month we had a short period of "stuff" that rattled thru the branches and on the leaves just like IP.  However, what landed on my wool jacket was opaque and quite irregular in shape, obviously flakes very heavily rimed, or half-melted and refrozen.
12-18?  I'll have to look at GYX's "90%/most likely/10%" table again.  An hour ago it had Farmington at 0/10/11".

It was a pretty tough event for our probabilistic snowfall (maybe they all are?). For a long time this looked like an all or nothing event, so you were either going to hug the 10th or 90th percentile. We thought snowy, so we went 90th. Now that models have come into better agreement (especially interior) on snow occurring our probabilities are settling into something between the goal posts.

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2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

In convection is most likely riming that is producing that, but in certain events actual sleet has been observed. OKX did in Feb 2013.

oh ...yeah, if we get into elevated instability layers... could be an unusual warmer layer at 700 with feeding convection all over top a shallower growth region..

weird action... In early January 1994 we had a column like that - not thundering per se...but moderate sleet actually hurt on exposed skin drilling slant wise in wind at 19 F along side a snow growth fall out ...probably a saturated 800 layer with some lift ...but now that I think about it OE was also involved with that.  I think we had 1/2 of solid sleet accumulated along with 3 to 5" dry snow over eastern Mass...

The best is the Kanasas City thunderstorm at 24F Freezing Rain

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7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nam was like 10-11, GFS was like 2 or so it looked 

We need a tickle East on gfs by go time and we should be golden by noon , otherwise wagons a bit W 

Yeah I agree...got some weenie met buddies coming to hang out, drink beers, and watch the storm. Don't want them to get stuck, but they're mets too so guess it's not my job to babysit them.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

oh ...yeah, if we get into elevated instability layers... could be an unusual warmer layer at 700 with feeding convection all over top a shallower growth region..

weird action... I early January 1994 we had a column like that - not thundering per se...but moderate sleet actually hurt on exposed skin drilling slant wise in wind at 19 F along side a snow growth fall out ...probably a saturated 800 layer with some lift ...but now that I think about it OE was also involved with that.  I think we had 1/2 of solid sleet accumulated along with 3 to 5" dry snow over eastern Mass...

The best is the Kanasas City thunderstorm at 24F Freezing Rain

In Jan 94 I had pouring rain at 9 degrees. Was an amazing experience.

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1 hour ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I think it’s called “graupel”? We got it all the time in Reno, NV and yes it’s quite an origraphic/vertical motion and lapse rate kinda deal

Sort of... graupel is partially refrozen aggregate pieces ...which is sort of the same thing .. but those under thundersnow/CSI banding...they are larger and really do appeal as though they were suspended by updraft for a period - graupel is snow falling into an incomplete melting layer.  The end result may be similar but not quite, and also different formation sequencing -

But alas ...many of these process in this crazy business in reality share processing/physics so ... the seams can be rather "cloudy" - haha... puns are free by the way -

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I'll tell you what, not an easy forecast here in CT. Probably a bit conservative but we think it's reasonable. Definitely hammered home the impacts and power outage potential in north-central/NE CT. 

I'll be biting my nails all the way to the end of this one. 

final-call-map-12-5-20_orig.jpg

Just a question out of curiosity.. why do you have the 2-4 and 5-10” line thru half of Tolland?

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5 minutes ago, DomNH said:

 Northernmost end of Main St.

Unless things tick East ,I’m probably heading out to Temple  NH Around 1030 am. Gonna bring some blankets , warm clothes a shovel in case I’m stuck , some food Etc, and start to hike up Miller state park Auro road . It’s a nice peaceful walk and by the time I get down I hope I’m buried . Maybe grab a room In Inn a few Miles away at 1050’ 

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Unless things tick East ,I’m probably heading out to Temple  NH Around 1030 am. Gonna bring some blankets , warm clothes a shovel in case I’m stuck , some food Etc, and start to hike up Miller state park Auro road . It’s a nice peaceful walk and by the time I get down I hope I’m buried . Maybe grab a room In Inn a few Miles away at 1050’ 

That's probably a prime spot for this. Nice open summit > 2k ft. too. 

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