ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Don’t mean to be redundant but, quite warm out there at the moment... We need to rip a chunk out of the stratosphere for this to work out like some think. Yeah it’s going to take crazy dynamics....which the models show admittedly, but I always get a little nervous on similar setups where you are “waiting” for the cold. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it’s going to take crazy dynamics....which the models show admittedly, but I always get a little nervous on similar setups where you are “waiting” for the cold. Is a storm “creating its own cold” part of the fraud 5?, lol... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Rgem had one good winter it's time is now over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 18z NAM for BDL...sick thumpity humpity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Anyone else think NWS is underdoing BDL? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, It's Always Sunny said: Anyone else think NWS is underdoing BDL? yes. I'm thinking 3-6'' there. may even bump to 4-8'. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah Reggie tickled east but it’s still a furnace at the surface. Not sure what it’s doing there. I know it’s the Reggie but still may be a little red flag at half mast there. Too many times I have seen a meso model or the GFS torch the surface or mid levels and get dismissed by weenies and then watch it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 31 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: *Raises hand* +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, It's Always Sunny said: Anyone else think NWS is underdoing BDL? They might be just waiting for more consistency/consolidation. Newest runs are bringing BDL into the action.... they only just issued watches for Tolland and Windham... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: Rgem had one good winter it's time is now over Still good to take everything into account I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 I think 2" could be well underdone. All models have them getting between 1.25-1.50" liquid when it potentially flips to snow. Valley could be warmer but GFS is the only one keeping them above mid-30's at this point. And if they band then evap cooling will do the rest. Idk I see bust potential there. I think 3-6" is more realistic imo. Just curious to see what others think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: yes. I'm thinking 3-6'' there. may even bump to 4-8'. Ok cool glad we're on the same page. 4-8" could definitely be a possibility too no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: Anyone else think NWS is underdoing BDL? Much to my dismay, they were pretty accurate about their snow maps out here last winter. i’m at the northern end of the valley so only 2-4” would not surprise me at all. I mean, it’s 44° here right now so not exactly screaming snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You do 4-6” in the NW hills and if they ML magic it to 8-10” so be it? I’d think that could be a safe call <1000ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Ticking this easy and slowing it down a hair near the cape would do wonders here All while maintaining dynamics... We were able to thread that needle on some guidance early Thursday. These details still in flux. At the moment I think 2-5" is definitely doable Boston metrowest to 128, coating to 3" southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, It's Always Sunny said: Ok cool glad we're on the same page. 4-8" could definitely be a possibility too no doubt. if I adjust anything I would probably do the 3-6'' to 4-8'' and the 6-10'' to 8-12'' but that could be pushing a bit. Just a matter of how quickly the flip can happen. If this thing gets it act together even 2-3 hours faster a large part of CT gets crushed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, WhiteLawns said: I’d think that could be a safe call <1000ft That’s true. You get 8” at 1k then congrats to a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: if I adjust anything I would probably do the 3-6'' to 4-8'' and the 6-10'' to 8-12'' but that could be pushing a bit. Just a matter of how quickly the flip can happen. If this thing gets it act together even 2-3 hours faster a large part of CT gets crushed. Nice map. I wouldn’t change a thing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 One forecast I can guarantee is there will be a lot of nervous weenies posting tomorrow about when the flip is supposed to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: if I adjust anything I would probably do the 3-6'' to 4-8'' and the 6-10'' to 8-12'' but that could be pushing a bit. Just a matter of how quickly the flip can happen. If this thing gets it act together even 2-3 hours faster a large part of CT gets crushed. I think you are good; you could move the 6-12 to the RI border, it’s not all flat land along I 395 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Will be interesting to see what this does for Willimantic. we are at the southern part of the better amounts in models and watches but we are at about 250 feet elevation. Has to count for something right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 We got an obs thread going? Rain has started here. A balmy 47/40. Not expecting much but hoping for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Yikes, NWS Box point and click only going 1-3” here and 2-4” in the hills to my West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Much to my dismay, they were pretty accurate about their snow maps out here last winter. i’m at the northern end of the valley so only 2-4” would not surprise me at all. I mean, it’s 44° here right now so not exactly screaming snow. 2-4" wouldn't surprise me either I just think 2" is on the low end so to speak. 18Z GFS coming in will be interesting if it holds. NAM continues it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Big gfs hit with a tick E and cooler. ECT to ME deform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 GFS a little east of 12z. Still warm inside 495, but did shift everything east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Big gfs hit with a tick E and cooler. ECT to ME deform. Get ready to go Red and rescind vote! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Get ready to go Red and rescind vote! Not much here bro. We blue...balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Messenger shuffle underway. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 38 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: From my blog around noon. I should probably find a topographical map so I actually know where the hills are. These are cool but may be more than what you were planning on spending: https://ramblemaps.com/maps?q=new+england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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