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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


Typhoon Tip
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7 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Don’t mean to be redundant but, quite warm out there at the moment... We need to rip a chunk out of the stratosphere for this to work out like some think.

Yeah it’s going to take crazy dynamics....which the models show admittedly, but I always get a little nervous on similar setups where you are “waiting” for the cold. 

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah Reggie tickled east but it’s still a furnace at the surface. Not sure what it’s doing there. 

I know it’s the Reggie but still may be a little red flag at half mast there.  Too many times I have seen a meso model or the GFS torch the surface or mid levels and get dismissed by weenies and then watch it happen. 

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I think 2" could be well underdone. All models have them getting between 1.25-1.50" liquid when it potentially flips to snow. Valley could be warmer but GFS is the only one keeping them above mid-30's at this point. And if they band then evap cooling will do the rest. Idk I see bust potential there. I think 3-6" is more realistic imo. Just curious to see what others think.

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4 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Anyone else think NWS is underdoing BDL? 

Much to my dismay, they were pretty accurate about their snow maps out here last winter. 
i’m at the northern end of the valley so only 2-4” would not surprise me at all.  I mean, it’s 44° here right now so not exactly screaming snow. 

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15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Ticking this easy and slowing it down a hair near the cape would do wonders here 

All while maintaining dynamics...

We were able to thread that needle on some guidance early Thursday. These details still in flux. At the moment I think 2-5" is definitely doable Boston metrowest to 128, coating to 3" southeast.

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Just now, It's Always Sunny said:

Ok cool glad we're on the same page. 4-8" could definitely be a possibility too no doubt.

if I adjust anything I would probably do the 3-6'' to 4-8'' and the 6-10'' to 8-12'' but that could be pushing a bit. Just a matter of how quickly the flip can happen. If this thing gets it act together even 2-3 hours faster a large part of CT gets crushed.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

if I adjust anything I would probably do the 3-6'' to 4-8'' and the 6-10'' to 8-12'' but that could be pushing a bit. Just a matter of how quickly the flip can happen. If this thing gets it act together even 2-3 hours faster a large part of CT gets crushed.

Nice map. I wouldn’t change a thing.

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

if I adjust anything I would probably do the 3-6'' to 4-8'' and the 6-10'' to 8-12'' but that could be pushing a bit. Just a matter of how quickly the flip can happen. If this thing gets it act together even 2-3 hours faster a large part of CT gets crushed.

I think you are good; you could move the 6-12 to the RI border, it’s not all flat land along I 395

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9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Much to my dismay, they were pretty accurate about their snow maps out here last winter. 
i’m at the northern end of the valley so only 2-4” would not surprise me at all.  I mean, it’s 44° here right now so not exactly screaming snow. 

2-4" wouldn't surprise me either I just think 2" is on the low end so to speak. 18Z GFS coming in will be interesting if it holds. NAM continues it.

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