40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, that's prime, but we can do better locally because our primary ice nucleus is sea salt. I tend to just expand it to -10 to -20 as a proxy, if it's low level junk even as warm as -6 to -8. This is from 12z...doesn't look great to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: BOS gets a nice bone thrown to it around 5-9pm....pretty intense stinger on the CCB. This run slows down a little vs 12z as its tracking across the Cape and northeast which helps the CCB really go to town over E MA than some of the other guidance. That’s how we’ll get our snow if any down here.... slow this thing down just enough to allow that intense band to rotate through here instead of lifting north and just grazing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: So the 03km NAM Kuchera gives me 8", and the 12k gives me 15" WTF Quit complaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 I think Box will bust low if they stick with 4-6” in NE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Here's ORH on the 3km NAM at the same time....you can see the lift lines up a bit better. So they'd probably be maximizing dendrites here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Spaizzo said: All of ct? Holding onto hope Immediate Coastal areas of eastern CT and RI probably still mostly miss out but even these areas could get a 2 inch cementing if lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobbydoppler Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Welcome....I don't think this is too similar to the Mar '18 storms....maybe the closest match would have been the Mar 7-8 storm which had all the power outages. But this storm is going to be even warmer at the onset, so there's going to be a long period of rain before any changeover....esp in SE MA. If you are in upper SE MA like near Foxoborough, you'll change over a bit earlier than everyone else down there and could grab several inches. Thank you. I'm in Easton. Hopefully we can get a few inches on the backside, but I'd pass if it meant power outages. I remember we lost power from the Mar 1-3 '18 storm and I couldn't drive a half mile in some places without seeing a tree leaning on a house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 This looks to occlude pretty quickly...I wonder if that could throw a wrench into some of the ranges for like northern NH and parts of ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bobbydoppler said: Thank you. I'm in Easton. Hopefully we can get a few inches on the backside, but I'd pass if it meant power outages. I remember we lost power from the Mar 1-3 '18 storm and I couldn't drive a half mile in some places without seeing a tree leaning on a house. I'd think you'll probably at least get a couple inches there at the end. Potential is there for more, but it all depends on how fast this whole thing explodes off to our east and exactly where it tracks too...along if there is a semi-stall as it maxes out and H5 reaches its peak height falls....you may have to watch for some pretty big wind gusts there too as it goes nuts....SE areas have more potential for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 BobbyDoppler, welcome. Grew up a few miles east of you. Hopefully you are up by Bay Rd near Sharon. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just saw NAm lol. 20”+ from here northeast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just saw NAm lol. 20”+ from here northeast 10:1 ftl. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah....on the 3km NAM, you are close but just below the crosshair.....the bars on the left are omega. I marked max omega with an "x" and then you match it up with the temp profile to the right....you can see it's just below the bext SGZ, but it's still like -10C so that's gonna be pretty decent,....and you still have good lift above the max lift region. Ideally the max lift would be a touch higher, but that will still be pretty solid. Should see thunder with that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Certainly should be one there. BOX pays CT zones very little mind you’ll learn Oh that's right. Hartford and Litchfield is part of the Albany office Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 10:1 ftl. Yeah tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Oh that's right. Hartford and Litchfield is part of the Albany office Hartford is BOX/Taunton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, Bobbydoppler said: Thank you. I'm in Easton. Hopefully we can get a few inches on the backside, but I'd pass if it meant power outages. I remember we lost power from the Mar 1-3 '18 storm and I couldn't drive a half mile in some places without seeing a tree leaning on a house. Welcome.... I work at Stonehill college and live off 138 on the raynham Taunton Easton line... right on the hockomock swamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Arnold214 said: Should see thunder with that Yeah a lot of MAULish soundings showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah....on the 3km NAM, you are close but just below the crosshair.....the bars on the left are omega. I marked max omega with an "x" and then you match it up with the temp profile to the right....you can see it's just below the bext SGZ, but it's still like -10C so that's gonna be pretty decent,....and you still have good lift above the max lift region. Ideally the max lift would be a touch higher, but that will still be pretty solid. I can actually see what the 3km has for a rime factor (which is incorporated into its snowfall) in AWIPS. So in general it can be more realistic than your traditional 10:1 or Kuchera maps because it's trying to model microphysics. The reason lift below the DGZ is not great as Will is pointing out here is because lift from below is likely driving supercooled water into the DGZ. If there is supercooled water hanging around you'll rime your snowflakes and kill your ratios. If lift is smack in the middle of the DGZ you can produce pure dendrites and don't have to worry about riming as much on the way down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Gusts on cape to 100? Seems likely 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Won’t be far from truth. No one thought it would happen in 05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobbydoppler Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: BobbyDoppler, welcome. Grew up a few miles east of you. Hopefully you are up by Bay Rd near Sharon. LOL. Thank you. Grew up in Canton. Near 5 corners in Easton now. Bay rd may be quite tricky to navigate come tomorrow eve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I can actually see what the 3km has for a rime factor (which is incorporated into its snowfall) in AWIPS. So in general it can be more realistic than your traditional 10:1 or Kuchera maps because it's trying to model microphysics. The reason lift below the DGZ is not great as Will is pointing out here is because lift from below is likely driving supercooled water into the DGZ. If there is supercooled water hanging around you'll rime your snowflakes and kill your ratios. If lift is smack in the middle of the DGZ you can produce pure dendrites and don't have to worry about riming as much on the way down. That will separate the men from the boys. One of those deals where a narrow area doubles what they have around them because of that reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gusts on cape to 100? Seems likely Would be pretty awesome to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobbydoppler Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Welcome.... I work at Stonehill college and live off 138 on the raynham Taunton Easton line... right on the hockomock swamp. Awesome! I drive by there on my way to work in Quincy. If you were there a couple years ago you prob saw the trees hanging on the power lines over Belmont St after those Mar '18 storms. Images tattooed in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Hi Will. Bye @ORH_wxman 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: BOS gets a nice bone thrown to it around 5-9pm....pretty intense stinger on the CCB. This run slows down a little vs 12z as its tracking across the Cape and northeast which helps the CCB really go to town over E MA than some of the other guidance. Yeah the hint of slowdown off the Cape is intriguing for eastern SNE, something to watch in next 12 hours Re: your post on crosshairs... yeah interior eastern SNE (at least 495 and southeast) has never looked ideal in that regard. Best lift is all below DGZ. Snowgrowth might not be optimized, but I'm not familiar if there is something different about stinger mechanics to think that can be overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 CAE extending the Winter Storm Watch into Bangor. Going to warnings now N&W of I-95: Quote MEZ011-015-051500- /O.EXA.KCAR.WS.A.0008.201205T1800Z-201207T0000Z/ CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF LINCOLN, HOWLAND, SPRINGFIELD, BANGOR, BREWER, ORONO, AND OLD TOWN 345 PM EST FRI DEC 4 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 10 INCHES AND MINOR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. * WHERE...CENTRAL PENOBSCOT AND SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTIES. * WHEN...FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND CAUSE LOCALIZED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW, SLEET OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 I am going to need to rely on a secondary western deformation band and some mlm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Hi Will. Bye @ORH_wxman Union Station right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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