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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


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15 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm wondering if they will extend the Winter Storm Watch into Hartford County as well. I'm just west of West Hartford on the Farmington Plainville line on top of a hill about 450 feet high. What if that will make some difference

Certainly should be one there. BOX pays CT zones very little mind you’ll learn 

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27 minutes ago, Bobbydoppler said:

Hi all. Long time lurker, first time poster.  Is this storm in any way similar to any of the storms we had back in early March of '18?  Seems that way to me with the snow, wind, rain component, power outage likelihood,  and coming on the heels of a storm not 5 days prior.  

Welcome....I don't think this is too similar to the Mar '18 storms....maybe the closest match would have been the Mar 7-8 storm which had all the power outages. But this storm is going to be even warmer at the onset, so there's going to be a long period of rain before any changeover....esp in SE MA. If you are in upper SE MA like near Foxoborough, you'll change over a bit earlier than everyone else down there and could grab several inches.

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5 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

18z NAM a hair colder than 12z for eastern SNE folks

Huge hit for northeast CT-central MA-on northeast

BOS gets a nice bone thrown to it around 5-9pm....pretty intense stinger on the CCB. This run slows down a little vs 12z as its tracking across the Cape and northeast which helps the CCB really go to town over E MA than some of the other guidance.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Welcome....I don't think this is too similar to the Mar '18 storms....maybe the closest match would have been the Mar 7-8 storm which had all the power outages. But this storm is going to be even warmer at the onset, so there's going to be a long period of rain before any changeover....esp in SE MA. If you are in upper SE MA like near Foxoborough, you'll change over a bit earlier than everyone else down there and could grab several inches.

That one was pasty as heck

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

BOS gets a nice bone thrown to it around 5-9pm....pretty intense stinger on the CCB. This run slows down a little vs 12z as its tracking across the Cape and northeast which helps the CCB really go to town over E MA than some of the other guidance.

a bit of good news

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

BOS gets a nice bone thrown to it around 5-9pm....pretty intense stinger on the CCB. This run slows down a little vs 12z as its tracking across the Cape and northeast which helps the CCB really go to town over E MA than some of the other guidance.

You look for that cross hair between -12 and -18, correct?

Does anyone have EURO Bufkit for KLWM?

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So the 03km NAM Kuchera gives me 8", and the 12k gives me 15"

WTF

Probably how they are accumulating snow. Hourly accumulation on the 3km can time down those changeovers, while the 12km 3 hour chunk will average and can dump a lot of snow where it doesn't necessarily belong.

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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

That one was pasty as heck

This one might be even worse paste....the only question is if you get as much snow as that one....it's not implausible

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So the 03km NAM Kuchera gives me 8", and the 12k gives me 15"

WTF

It's a huge weenie run for you...you get hammered by the CCB/deform in the evening as it slows down in the Gulf of Maine just NE of the Cape.

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These tics make a big difference for Bos metro area coast-128-495... from this NAM run anticipating a changeover somewhere 3-6pm, and an hour here or there will make a difference under those heavy rates

Nice to see 18z NAM tic colder

Also I think18z NAM slows down the exit a bit

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You look for that cross hair between -12 and -18, correct?

Does anyone have EURO Bufkit for KLWM?

Yeah, that's prime, but we can do better locally because our primary ice nucleus is sea salt. I tend to just expand it to -10 to -20 as a proxy, if it's low level junk even as warm as -6 to -8. 

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

Probably how they are accumulating snow. Hourly accumulation on the 3km can time down those changeovers, while the 12km 3 hour chunk will average and can dump a lot of snow where it doesn't necessarily belong.

Figured 3km was more reasonable....has me in a little screw hole.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You look for that cross hair between -12 and -18, correct?

Does anyone have EURO Bufkit for KLWM?

Yeah....on the 3km NAM, you are close but just below the crosshair.....the bars on the left are omega. I marked max omega with an "x" and then you match it up with the temp profile to the right....you can see it's just below the bext SGZ, but it's still like -10C so that's gonna be pretty decent,....and you still have good lift above the max lift region. Ideally the max lift would be a touch higher, but that will still be pretty solid.

 

Dec4_18zNAM3k_27h.png

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