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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Unless this shifts east, I'd be really surprised if he doesn't crack 15"....that wind direction is good there. NE and then N to eventually NW. Plus he won't have to "waste" any qpf on rain.

Yeah we’ll see.  Just my conservative nature in forecasting snow... high floor calls not my thing.  He’ll probably have under 10” out in the open after the wind and a 8-foot drift off his garage or something anyway :lol:.

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3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Definitely a bit torn. Putrid airmass is going to hurt... but the mid level track and strong lift/DGZ signal definitely has me bullish. Can definitely see 6-12 for Woody and even 3-6 for BDL. Soundings flip to isothermal paste pretty quickly. Also a bit worried some mid level magic gets into NW CT too.

Thoughts on down this way? Or are the rates not going to be enough in this corner of the state? Still thinking we end up with what we had in October, slushy accumulation here with 1-2 in the hills..

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ask Ekster about trees snapping behind his house after like 2-3" of glop partway into the 1/14/08 storm in Attleboro.....it was like 2am and he's saying shotguns blasts are going off behind his house from like 2" of waterlogged cement, LOL.

That was nuts. The wettest snow you can get without it being rain. 

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah we’ll see.  Just my conservative nature in forecasting snow... high floor calls not my thing.  He’ll probably have under 10” out in the open after the wind and a 8-foot drift off his garage or something anyway :lol:.

Oh yeah, if I was making an official forecast, I'd prob go like 10-20 or something....keep the range a little bit wide. I'm always leery of the last second tickle east on these compact systems.

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3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Definitely a bit torn. Putrid airmass is going to hurt... but the mid level track and strong lift/DGZ signal definitely has me bullish. Can definitely see 6-12 for Woody and even 3-6 for BDL. Soundings flip to isothermal paste pretty quickly. Also a bit worried some mid level magic gets into NW CT too.

there are definitely signals for this to happen

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Just now, Arnold214 said:

That was nuts. The wettest snow you can get without it being rain. 

I remember we were like "good thing the wind turned more northerly and cooled it into the upper 20s for the second half of the storm"....otherwise it might have flattened the whole forest.

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah we’ll see.  Just my conservative nature in forecasting snow... high floor calls not my thing.  He’ll probably have under 10” out in the open after the wind and a 8-foot drift off his garage or something anyway :lol:.

I will probably have measurements ranging from 4-24” so you can all claim victory. :) 

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5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Definitely a bit torn. Putrid airmass is going to hurt... but the mid level track and strong lift/DGZ signal definitely has me bullish. Can definitely see 6-12 for Woody and even 3-6 for BDL. Soundings flip to isothermal paste pretty quickly. Also a bit worried some mid level magic gets into NW CT too.

We Woody 

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49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Best chance for BOS area I think is evening when that stinger rotates through....hopefully it is still very intense. If it is, they could see 2-3 hours of pretty good stuff.

Honestly, tracking the change over will drive me crazy I almost wish it would be all rain... Won't be more than an inch or two 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Oh yeah, if I was making an official forecast, I'd prob go like 10-20 or something....keep the range a little bit wide. I'm always leery of the last second tickle east on these compact systems.

Aren’t we all? Ha.  But yeah I think that’s a good range.  Always want to leave yourself some room if for some reason it’s like 10-12” on 1.40” water for some reason with dense needles packed together... or it ticks eastward.

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7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Definitely a bit torn. Putrid airmass is going to hurt... but the mid level track and strong lift/DGZ signal definitely has me bullish. Can definitely see 6-12 for Woody and even 3-6 for BDL. Soundings flip to isothermal paste pretty quickly. Also a bit worried some mid level magic gets into NW CT too.

Think I can pull an inch of glop in Hamden?

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20 minutes ago, SnowBrosForever said:

So that means I have to put away the golf cart? It's still so warm.

no way. I love cruising up and down the street doing power slides in the middle of a good snow storm. my cart is ready to go 12 months a year. knobby tires and lift kit help though.

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1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Honestly, tracking the change over will drive me crazy I almost wish it would be all rain... Won't be more than an inch or two 

It’s def gonna be slow once you are like inside of 495ish and def 128 I think. Heck, even ORH might take a little while with a lot of rain during the morning.

If ORH is ripping snow by 10-11am, that will be a good sign for prob the 128-495 belt. If the 128 BOS suburbs are ripping by 18-20z then that is a good sign for BOS to potentially grab advisory type snows. 

The window for BOS is prob like 5pm to 10pm or something like that with a stinger tail on the CCB. 

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That 1/14/08 storm is the first one I “chased” as I had just moved to Burlington after 10 years in Florida . I had just joined the board and I was watching a fire hose go over Rhode Island and someone contemplating about driving to Diamond hill on their birthday .

Went out to a snow covered I-90 and took A slippery drive back on I-20 back to 128. Recall there was down to an inch in Weston and Nada East of that . As I was getting home after midnight , I noted these giant Globs of paste  falling from The sky like almost tennis ball sized . Biggest flakes I’ve ever seen dropped an inch of snow. Was surreal they weren’t like flakes but almost like giant thick wafers of snow 

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