powderfreak Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Unless this shifts east, I'd be really surprised if he doesn't crack 15"....that wind direction is good there. NE and then N to eventually NW. Plus he won't have to "waste" any qpf on rain. Yeah we’ll see. Just my conservative nature in forecasting snow... high floor calls not my thing. He’ll probably have under 10” out in the open after the wind and a 8-foot drift off his garage or something anyway . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Definitely a bit torn. Putrid airmass is going to hurt... but the mid level track and strong lift/DGZ signal definitely has me bullish. Can definitely see 6-12 for Woody and even 3-6 for BDL. Soundings flip to isothermal paste pretty quickly. Also a bit worried some mid level magic gets into NW CT too. Thoughts on down this way? Or are the rates not going to be enough in this corner of the state? Still thinking we end up with what we had in October, slushy accumulation here with 1-2 in the hills.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ask Ekster about trees snapping behind his house after like 2-3" of glop partway into the 1/14/08 storm in Attleboro.....it was like 2am and he's saying shotguns blasts are going off behind his house from like 2" of waterlogged cement, LOL. That was nuts. The wettest snow you can get without it being rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah we’ll see. Just my conservative nature in forecasting snow... high floor calls not my thing. He’ll probably have under 10” out in the open after the wind and a 8-foot drift off his garage or something anyway . Oh yeah, if I was making an official forecast, I'd prob go like 10-20 or something....keep the range a little bit wide. I'm always leery of the last second tickle east on these compact systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Definitely a bit torn. Putrid airmass is going to hurt... but the mid level track and strong lift/DGZ signal definitely has me bullish. Can definitely see 6-12 for Woody and even 3-6 for BDL. Soundings flip to isothermal paste pretty quickly. Also a bit worried some mid level magic gets into NW CT too. there are definitely signals for this to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Ready to go here. you should go for a quick hike to the top before it snows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, Arnold214 said: That was nuts. The wettest snow you can get without it being rain. I remember we were like "good thing the wind turned more northerly and cooled it into the upper 20s for the second half of the storm"....otherwise it might have flattened the whole forest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: there are definitely signals for this to happen Not sure why he is ‘worried’ about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 17 minutes ago, radarman said: Lol. That’s great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah we’ll see. Just my conservative nature in forecasting snow... high floor calls not my thing. He’ll probably have under 10” out in the open after the wind and a 8-foot drift off his garage or something anyway . I will probably have measurements ranging from 4-24” so you can all claim victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Definitely a bit torn. Putrid airmass is going to hurt... but the mid level track and strong lift/DGZ signal definitely has me bullish. Can definitely see 6-12 for Woody and even 3-6 for BDL. Soundings flip to isothermal paste pretty quickly. Also a bit worried some mid level magic gets into NW CT too. We Woody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Still a chance to flip to a couple hours of heavy paste as this pulls away? Seems that’s our “path” to accumulating snow. @CoastalWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 49 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Best chance for BOS area I think is evening when that stinger rotates through....hopefully it is still very intense. If it is, they could see 2-3 hours of pretty good stuff. Honestly, tracking the change over will drive me crazy I almost wish it would be all rain... Won't be more than an inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Oh yeah, if I was making an official forecast, I'd prob go like 10-20 or something....keep the range a little bit wide. I'm always leery of the last second tickle east on these compact systems. Aren’t we all? Ha. But yeah I think that’s a good range. Always want to leave yourself some room if for some reason it’s like 10-12” on 1.40” water for some reason with dense needles packed together... or it ticks eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Definitely a bit torn. Putrid airmass is going to hurt... but the mid level track and strong lift/DGZ signal definitely has me bullish. Can definitely see 6-12 for Woody and even 3-6 for BDL. Soundings flip to isothermal paste pretty quickly. Also a bit worried some mid level magic gets into NW CT too. Think I can pull an inch of glop in Hamden? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 50 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Your snow growth procedure definitely has dry slot issues on the GFS/Euro for BOS. Same for LWM, probably... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not sure why he is ‘worried’ about that. maybe for snow map purposes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 gun to ORH area 6"-12" is reasonable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: maybe for snow map purposes? You do 4-6” in the NW hills and if they ML magic it to 8-10” so be it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 20 minutes ago, SnowBrosForever said: So that means I have to put away the golf cart? It's still so warm. no way. I love cruising up and down the street doing power slides in the middle of a good snow storm. my cart is ready to go 12 months a year. knobby tires and lift kit help though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You do 4-6” in the NW hills and if they ML magic it to 8-10” so be it? true...I'm sure the 5 people who live there won't know the difference 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: Honestly, tracking the change over will drive me crazy I almost wish it would be all rain... Won't be more than an inch or two It’s def gonna be slow once you are like inside of 495ish and def 128 I think. Heck, even ORH might take a little while with a lot of rain during the morning. If ORH is ripping snow by 10-11am, that will be a good sign for prob the 128-495 belt. If the 128 BOS suburbs are ripping by 18-20z then that is a good sign for BOS to potentially grab advisory type snows. The window for BOS is prob like 5pm to 10pm or something like that with a stinger tail on the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: maybe for snow map purposes? I would think as a forecaster you’re better off busting low than high. Like if an area gets 10” but was forecasted for 4-6”, nobody is really butthurt about it. But if you go 8-10” and they get 2”, it’s a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 That 1/14/08 storm is the first one I “chased” as I had just moved to Burlington after 10 years in Florida . I had just joined the board and I was watching a fire hose go over Rhode Island and someone contemplating about driving to Diamond hill on their birthday . Went out to a snow covered I-90 and took A slippery drive back on I-20 back to 128. Recall there was down to an inch in Weston and Nada East of that . As I was getting home after midnight , I noted these giant Globs of paste falling from The sky like almost tennis ball sized . Biggest flakes I’ve ever seen dropped an inch of snow. Was surreal they weren’t like flakes but almost like giant thick wafers of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 I've never found snow storms to be much of an issue for power, except the October 2011 job. As long as leaves are off the trees it's really not a big deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: true...I'm sure the 5 people who live there won't know the difference Ha. Yea. We have that tawby poster here and a few others I think who wouldn’t mind with a positive bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ha. Yea. We have that tawby poster here and a few others I think who wouldn’t mind with a positive bust. What's your elevation? I'm at 600' on the Seymour/Oxford line, feeling hopeful for 2-4". We always do very well with elevation dependent storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Still a chance to flip to a couple hours of heavy paste as this pulls away? Seems that’s our “path” to accumulating snow. @CoastalWx Not sure about heavy, but the chance is there. It just comes down to banding and dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 18z HRRR... yikes. That's a crusher back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, CT Rain said: 18z HRRR... yikes. That's a crusher back here. Every tree down in WeHa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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