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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Maybe we'll just have upright convection through the slot. :lol:  

I mean, that's basically how the dryslot filled in on 12/9/05....it was like convective cells feeding into the CCB band and the whole thing just kept strengthening and expanding, lol.

That's really the uncertainty in the forecast....how the "stinger" potentially develops in the late afternoon/early evening.

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5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Mid level magic for me on the Euro. QPF Queens be damned.

Euro 2m temps are a little warm so still some elevation dependence but do think there's a decent power outage threat around here in NE CT.

Also... really nice DGZ/omega signal on the NAM and GFS here locally. Pretty bullish.

Thinking 3-6" valley and 6-12 hills... especially NE. 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's the 30h height field, plus 30 and 36 hour RH fields....it's moving E between 30 and 36h...so metrowest may get into the good stuff for a time....but you can def see that it's prob dryslotted out to like rt 128 at 18z tomorrow.

Dec4_12zEuro_H7_30.png

Dec4_12zEuro_H7m_30.png

Dec4_12zEuro_H7m_36.png

Looks like the hr30 frame would produce back this way for a few hours which the clowns maps aren’t catching. 

It’s razor close, as usual, but an outside shot at 2-4” is possible.

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Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Is there a general rule of thumb for the amount of heavy, wet snow required to start bringing tree limbs down? I was thinking somewhere in the ballpark of 4" or so and then you start thinking about it......thoughts?

In my experience that advisory level (3-4") snow if it all sticks to the limbs will do the trick. 

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

In my experience that advisory level (3-4") snow if it all sticks to the limbs will do the trick. 

Ask Ekster about trees snapping behind his house after like 2-3" of glop partway into the 1/14/08 storm in Attleboro.....it was like 2am and he's saying shotguns blasts are going off behind his house from like 2" of waterlogged cement, LOL.

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7 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We’re getting the band back together!

:thumbsup:

8 hours ago, wdrag said:

 

29 minutes ago, Arnold214 said:

 

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

30 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

 

29 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

 

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pound me town 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ask Ekster about trees snapping behind his house after like 2-3" of glop partway into the 1/14/08 storm in Attleboro.....it was like 2am and he's saying shotguns blasts are going off behind his house from like 2" of waterlogged cement, LOL.

Something i will never forget is the trees and transformers snapping and popping that night of Ice storm in 1998, The sky was completely dark and you would just see constant blue flashes with loud bangs as transformers one after the other blew up, It was like living in baghdad back in the gulf war when scud missles were hitting there.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Make the White Mountains white again.

I’ll go 12-20” there.

Unless this shifts east, I'd be really surprised if he doesn't crack 15"....that wind direction is good there. NE and then N to eventually NW. Plus he won't have to "waste" any qpf on rain.

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24 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Mid level magic for me on the Euro. QPF Queens be damned.

Euro 2m temps are a little warm so still some elevation dependence but do think there's a decent power outage threat around here in NE CT.

Snow Monster May be wise to visit the Thompson Hill Common, Woodstock Academy or Pomfret Academy common areas for decent live shots

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Definitely a bit torn. Putrid airmass is going to hurt... but the mid level track and strong lift/DGZ signal definitely has me bullish. Can definitely see 6-12 for Woody and even 3-6 for BDL. Soundings flip to isothermal paste pretty quickly. Also a bit worried some mid level magic gets into NW CT too.

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