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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


Typhoon Tip
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1 minute ago, Arnold214 said:

That’s a little concerning.

The soundings were sort of eh near the city. I would like to see the lift smack into the DGZ when the column is cool enough. You can see prior to the flip, there is good lift in the DGZ which likely helps to top down cool. But as the low intensifies, the lift lowers a bit. 

Maybe it bombs and contracts everything near the center. That would help.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We'll need it to really go to town. Any showery crap near the dryslot and forget it. That storm had a much better airmass. Hate to see it. 

Best chance for BOS area I think is evening when that stinger rotates through....hopefully it is still very intense. If it is, they could see 2-3 hours of pretty good stuff.

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59 minutes ago, dendrite said:

51° and partly sunny in December. It definitely doesn’t feel like snow tomorrow. 

I was outside dealing with Xmas lights during lunch. it was actually quite toasty in the sun. then I tried to think of a time it was this warm the day before a snowstorm. Then I realized that although I will never remember, Will @ORH_wxman will be along shortly after I post this to tell me. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We'll need it to really go to town. Any showery crap near the dryslot and forget it. That storm had a much better airmass. Hate to see it. 

The crazy CCB band pivoting through can drop that in 2 hours. Looks like BOS at least sees that at this point on these runs today. Anyway, enjoy whatever happens. Our fate’s definitely sealed for a cold nasty rain event here. :( If only this was 5-8 degrees colder. 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We'll need it to really go to town. Any showery crap near the dryslot and forget it. That storm had a much better airmass. Hate to see it. 

Boston Weather Service seems to think the track is staying mostly off shore and not over the Cape and Islands as some but not all the models have. So that may be where the difference in thinking is. Which may translate to the potential heavier amounts shown.

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Just now, SJonesWX said:

I was outside dealing with Xmas lights during lunch. it was actually quite toasty in the sun. then I tried to think of a time it was this warm the day before a snowstorm. Then I realized that although I will never remember, Will @ORH_wxman will be along shortly after I post this to tell me. 

63 at BOX the day before April Fools 1997. 61 at PVD, 62 MQE, 63 BDL, 54 at ORH.

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1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

I was outside dealing with Xmas lights during lunch. it was actually quite toasty in the sun. then I tried to think of a time it was this warm the day before a snowstorm. Then I realized that although I will never remember, Will @ORH_wxman will be along shortly after I post this to tell me. 

3/30/97

 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The soundings were sort of eh near the city. I would like to see the lift smack into the DGZ when the column is cool enough. You can see prior to the flip, there is good lift in the DGZ which likely helps to top down cool. But as the low intensifies, the lift lowers a bit. 

Maybe it bombs and contracts everything near the center. That would help.

I’m not looking at much data at the moment. But what does the back-bent warm front look like in the 700mb height fields? I like to use that as a rough dividing line between the good stuff and the lighter, more showery crap. Whomever remains to the west of that is golden.

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Been tracking this bad boy focused in Vermont ski areas (notably okemo) and wondering your guys thoughts on the western edge. From what I’m seeing after the worst of the East trend has ended it does seem like there may be some decent lift especially early aftn into evening tomorrow but my concern is how the models are handling the western fringe. There is definitely going to be a sharp cutoff on the NW side which right now seems to be worst between southeast Vermont and central mass (going from 0.75 to nearly 2in qpf on the euro). My concern is that precip might be overdone on the western fringe however in looking for some eveidencr of this,  the FGEN maps from for example the RGEM it would support the model output of 0.5-0.75 qpf for most of southern/east central Vermont so maybe my concerns are unwarranted. Thoughts?

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Boston metro (including metrowest) will be fun to watch ~18z-0z Saturday when 850/925 crash <0C, great rates, but surface is still 37C.

I think at the very least, a tight gradient of sloppy coating-2" at coast to 2-4" out by 128. 

But even an extra 1-2 hours under the best rates would add 1-2", and that's definitely realistic.

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Euro hit ASH area much harder than GFS 

Flips us by noon 

I spy a jack from Ashburnham to Miller state park on that map with tons of spots doing very well With similar amounts to Phin

And it's all about small details for the highest amounts. What side of the hill / mountain are you on? Top of the hill or bottom? I won't get the highest, being on the north side and at the bottom but it should be interesting. I'm hoping it's not 8 inches of concrete though...

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7 minutes ago, Arnold214 said:

I’m not looking at much data at the moment. But what does the back-bent warm front look like in the 700mb height fields? I like to use that as a rough dividing line between the good stuff and the lighter, more showery crap. Whomever remains to the west of that is golden.

image.png.b8ea0032271f190b4b32070271fcbee8.png

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6 minutes ago, Arnold214 said:

I’m not looking at much data at the moment. But what does the back-bent warm front look like in the 700mb height fields? I like to use that as a rough dividing line between the good stuff and the lighter, more showery crap. Whomever remains to the west of that is golden.

Here's the 30h height field, plus 30 and 36 hour RH fields....it's moving E between 30 and 36h...so metrowest may get into the good stuff for a time....but you can def see that it's prob dryslotted out to like rt 128 at 18z tomorrow.

Dec4_12zEuro_H7_30.png

Dec4_12zEuro_H7m_30.png

Dec4_12zEuro_H7m_36.png

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Here's the 30h height field, plus 30 and 36 hour RH fields....it's moving E between 30 and 36h...so metrowest may get into the good stuff for a time....but you can def see that it's prob dryslotted out to like rt 128 at 18z tomorrow.

I thought the Euro looked overall better on the bent back front aloft than the GFS. GFS brings it awfully far inland (which also explains the crap clown map).

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