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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


Typhoon Tip
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Great rain-snow flip story Tip. My fondest memory is still 3/31/97.

Awesome storm to track tomorrow. I'm most confident in ORH northeast into NH / ME.

Farther west? With this nuking out as quickly as guidance suggests, I'd think western extent of biggest accumulation might not be as far as we'd usually expect from midlevels... Also given how quickly this nukes (and some downstream ridging) I would not be surprised to see a closer track...

For Boston metro area / eastern SNE, we were threading the needle of dynamics + temps yesterday with a slightly further eastern track... with these western tics, the 4+ amounts are at risk. Will be extremely close and fun to watch with dynamics, and still think a quick 2-4"/3-6" is possible. Euro has not been jumping around as much as other guidance, let's see...

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think rgems STD model is better tbh. rgem is way overrated.

I've seen the herpes be pretty awful.

That said, I kind of like the non-hydrostatic models in this one as we get inside 36 hours. They are going to be able to resolve that very intense (but localized) convection that will be occurring in this bombing low.

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26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...as amazing as that storm was ... and it was multi faceted ( there was a wind damage and a tide problem at shore communities all the way down the Jersey shore/up to eastern Ma and coastal Nh in that too ) it was not a prolifiic snow producer over inland 'shadow' topographies.  

Someone can probably drub up the snow chart from that - it's a easy google effort no doubt. But the CT River valley and the like, ...I think Springfield Ma only got like 2-4" but that may be just my memory - heh.  Meanwhile places like Sutton were up over 30 inches.

The only chart I could find is on page 107 of this PDF.

http://www.weatherknowledge.com/The_Great_NorEaster_of_Dec_1992.pdf

Here is a screen shot.

 

dec 92 map.png

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I've seen the herpes be pretty awful.

That said, I kind of like the non-hydrostatic models in this one as we get inside 36 hours. They are going to be able to resolve that very intense (but localized) convection that will be occurring in this bombing low.

Not saying herpes is great but I prefer it over the rgem esp in marginal setups. I find its thermals to be superior although its skewed to the colder side a bit too much. 

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9 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Great rain-snow flip story. My fondest memory is still 3/31/97.

Awesome storm to track. I'm most confident in ORH northeast into NH / ME.

Farther west? With this nuking out as quickly as guidance suggests, I'd think western extent of biggest accumulation might not be as far as we'd usually expect from midlevels... Also given how quickly this nukes (and some downstream ridging) I would not be surprised to see a closer track...

For Boston metro area / eastern SNE, we were threading the needle of dynamics + temps yesterday with a slightly further eastern track... with these western tics, the 4+ amounts are at risk. Will be extremely close and fun to watch with dynamics, and still think a quick 2-4"/3-6" is possible. Euro has not been jumping around as much as other guidance, let's see...

If euro tics west, then I maybe in trouble.

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6 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Great rain-snow flip story. My fondest memory is still 3/31/97.

Awesome storm to track. I'm most confident in ORH northeast into NH / ME.

Farther west? With this nuking out as quickly as guidance suggests, I'd think western extent of biggest accumulation might not be as far as we'd usually expect from midlevels... Also given how quickly this nukes (and some downstream ridging) I would not be surprised to see a closer track...

For Boston metro area / eastern SNE, we were threading the needle of dynamics + temps yesterday with a slightly further eastern track... with these western tics, the 4+ amounts are at risk. Will be extremely close and fun to watch with dynamics, and still think a quick 2-4"/3-6" is possible. Euro has not been jumping around as much as other guidance, let's see...

My favorite too!

 

Sunday 3/30: 63˚, biking in shorts. Prediction of 10-14 overnight Monday which no one believed.

Monday 3/31: 45˚ and raining in the morning 8 SM W of KBOS. Prediction of a flip between 4 and 6. 1030 math class, bored looking out the window at the rain. Look back at the board. Look back out the window and I couldn't see across the field. My middle school math teacher did not care for my weather report.

1400: All after school activities canceled. Our bus driver usually left the door open and had to be woken up when it was time to leave but had to open and close it for everyone getting on to keep the blizzard out of the bus. With all activities canceled, we had about 80 people on the bus, sitting on laps. Barely made it up a couple of hills.

No school Tue-Wed, since many streets hadn't been touched.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I made a map of it years ago for SNE

 

December1992_snowfall_revised.PNG

ouch, I would assume my mini valley would have not done so well there, but eyeballing it on that map it has right on the light to dark blue line....do you know where that 13.8" tally came from in New Haven County?

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I made a map of it years ago for SNE

 

December1992_snowfall_revised.PNG

Loved this storm! I was on a cub scout overnight at the Museum of Science! They woke us up on the intercom at 6:45 with "good morning campers, it's snowing outside" and indeed it was. The morning activities were called off and everyone piled in to go home. We only had to make it a few exits out the Pike; not sure if there were folks from ORH county and how they fared!

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Mini 12/92 maybe tomorrow. 

Yup. Smaller and further east.

 

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

ouch, I would assume my mini valley would have not done so well there, but eyeballing it on that map it has right on the light to dark blue line....do you know where that 13.8" tally came from in New Haven County?

Waterbury?

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

ouch, I would assume my mini valley would have not done so well there, but eyeballing it on that map it has right on the light to dark blue line....do you know where that 13.8" tally came from in New Haven County?

That map looks like it's somewhere near Prospect or Wolcott which are both up around 900 ft+

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

ouch, I would assume my mini valley would have not done so well there, but eyeballing it on that map it has right on the light to dark blue line....do you know where that 13.8" tally came from in New Haven County?

I believe it was the woodbury coop

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