weathafella Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 The day before a storm being 10+ above normal typically doesn’t scream snow with no antecedent fropa 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: No way, Not that high. Eh. It could. There could be a period of 15-20:1 on top of the paste for anyone that gets sub 32°. Like I said before, we did that in Oct 11. I had 19”, but there wasn’t near 1.90” QPF here. But we got down to 31° at night during that extreme death band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Luke, take your lips off the pipe. Ha. I enjoy the view and taste back here. Lets not slam dunk a gfs run though. Still very marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Clown. Decent shift W and N from 06z. Ouch. Brutal GFS run...that is the weenie clown map, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 These 12z runs all point to closer to 2 feet here versus 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, at least confidence is growing that it won't develop too late for this area. Main issue will be getting it to flip to snow with these NW tics. This is going to implode inward at some point if these nuke solutions are right. The GFS will be too broad imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ouch. Brutal GFS run...that is the weenie clown map, too. I only posted it cause Pivotal was stuck for like 5min. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Clown. Decent shift W and N from 06z. :sad: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: We play with fire. Might end up 33 and rain, but might also end up with no power for a week. Not liking my Scarborough coastal location right now for much accumulation. As others have said, it's a shame we don't have a better airmass to work with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Eh. It could. There could be a period of 15-20:1 on top of the paste for anyone that gets sub 32°. Like I said before, we did that in Oct 11. I had 19”, but there wasn’t near 1.90” QPF here. But we got down to 31° at night during that extreme death band. I agree if you get below freezing at the surface, That what may happen here as its going to fall the heaviest after sunset, But out of the gate the ground truth will not yield those ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Liking the earlier development and lil west tics... Would like the euro to do the same. Still think T-3” is the way to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ouch. Brutal GFS run...that is the weenie clown map, too. Those may be biased somewhat low given the GFS's struggles with 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ouch. Brutal GFS run...that is the weenie clown map, too. This is the GFS clown map. Still looks great for the eastern half of NNE, we do get in a little on this one though in western NNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Someone is going to get croaked in this and I feel it's the N ORH Hills up into NH/ME looking at the track of that 700 low. This thing a closed off bowling ball. Could be 2-4" of rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Nuts...you have an 80+ knot LLJ streak throwing copious moisture back into the CCB where 850 temps start crashing to around -5C 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said: :sad: It still wouldn’t surprise me if it trends back slightly south or East later today or tonight. But really nothing would surprise me at this point, but yeah it’s also looking too toasty for comfort here now. But these trends definitely verify folks yesterday who were disregarding the 18z runs as likely bogus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is going to implode inward at some point if these nuke solutions are right. The GFS will be too broad imho. 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Those may be biased somewhat low given the GFS's struggles with 2m temps. I'm not even sure it's suspect 2 m temps, just clicking around a few point soundings and it's such a razor thin margin on the profile. Essentially isothermal near LWM up through PWM but hard generates any snow out of it. I'm pretty confident that if we can get the sounding to isothermal it will pound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: It still wouldn’t surprise me if it trends back slightly south or East later today or tonight. But really nothing would surprise me at this point, but yeah it’s also looking too toasty for comfort here now. But these trends definitely verify folks yesterday who were disregarding the 18z runs as likely bogus. Hoping for flakes of any kind, as all of us in the NYC forum are and N&W from there, but it's all but certain now where the best snow is setting up tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is going to implode inward at some point if these nuke solutions are right. The GFS will be too broad imho. Yea, GFS will be too warm...I will trade the more eastern tracks for more development. Dynamics will be more valuable than that few miles of longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 canadian seems to go just east of the elbow, just slightly east of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Someone is going to get croaked in this and I feel it's the N ORH Hills up into NH/ME looking at the track of that 700 low. This thing a closed off bowling ball. Could be 2-4" of rain here. You trace that cold side of the innermost closed contour. That's a tasty track for a lot of people on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 I’d be fine with a nice storm with a couple of inches at the end and my towns power grid intact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: The day before a storm being 10+ above normal typically doesn’t scream snow with no antecedent fropa Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 GFS is toasty. Prob a bunch of rain here before a flip to hellacious thump for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Jaffery/Rindge NH over to Ashburnham MA look nice on the Goofus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Jaffery/Rindge NH over to Ashburnham MA look nice on the Goofus You look pretty good too, ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Definitely more wiggle room out here with that W tick on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: You look pretty good too, ha. Yeah...I had to laugh at his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, DomNH said: GFS is toasty. Prob a bunch of rain here before a flip to hellacious thump for a few hours. All about the flip. After the 00z model suite I was expecting it around noon here. A flip around that time gives us a shot at double digits. Of course.....this is going to be one of those systems where when you measure "by the book" you got 10" but when you shovel at the end it looks like 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah...I had to laugh at his post. Ashburnham has a couple of hundred feet of el over me They do amazingly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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