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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


Typhoon Tip
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Just now, dryslot said:

No way, Not that high.

Eh. It could. There could be a period of 15-20:1 on top of the paste for anyone that gets sub 32°. Like I said before, we did that in Oct 11. I had 19”, but there wasn’t near 1.90” QPF here. But we got down to 31° at night during that extreme death band. 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, at least confidence is growing that it won't develop too late for this area. Main issue will be getting it to flip to snow with these NW tics.

This is going to implode inward at some point if these nuke solutions are right. The GFS will be too broad imho.

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We play with fire. Might end up 33 and rain, but might also end up with no power for a week.

Not liking my Scarborough coastal location right now for much accumulation. As others have said, it's a shame we don't have a better airmass to work with.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Eh. It could. There could be a period of 15-20:1 on top of the paste for anyone that gets sub 32°. Like I said before, we did that in Oct 11. I had 19”, but there wasn’t near 1.90” QPF here. But we got down to 31° at night during that extreme death band. 

I agree if you get below freezing at the surface, That what may happen here as its going to fall the heaviest after sunset,  But out of the gate the ground truth will not yield those ratios.

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1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said:

:sad:

It still wouldn’t surprise me if it trends back slightly south or East later today or tonight. But really nothing would surprise me at this point, but yeah it’s also looking too toasty for comfort here now. 
 

But these trends definitely verify folks yesterday who were disregarding the 18z runs as likely bogus. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is going to implode inward at some point if these nuke solutions are right. The GFS will be too broad imho.

 

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Those may be biased somewhat low given the GFS's struggles with 2m temps. 

I'm not even sure it's suspect 2 m temps, just clicking around a few point soundings and it's such a razor thin margin on the profile. Essentially isothermal near LWM up through PWM but hard generates any snow out of it. I'm pretty confident that if we can get the sounding to isothermal it will pound. 

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2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

It still wouldn’t surprise me if it trends back slightly south or East later today or tonight. But really nothing would surprise me at this point, but yeah it’s also looking too toasty for comfort here now. 
 

But these trends definitely verify folks yesterday who were disregarding the 18z runs as likely bogus. 

Hoping for flakes of any kind, as all of us in the NYC forum are and N&W from there, but it's all but certain now where the best snow is setting up tomorrow 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is going to implode inward at some point if these nuke solutions are right. The GFS will be too broad imho.

Yea, GFS will be too warm...I will trade the more eastern tracks for more development. Dynamics will be more valuable than that few miles of longitude.

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Someone is going to get croaked in this and I feel it's the N ORH Hills up into NH/ME looking at the track of that 700 low.  This thing a closed off bowling ball.  Could be 2-4" of rain here.

You trace that cold side of the innermost closed contour. That's a tasty track for a lot of people on this board.

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1 minute ago, DomNH said:

GFS is toasty. Prob a bunch of rain here before a flip to hellacious thump for a few hours. 

All about the flip. After the 00z model suite I was expecting it around noon here. A flip around that time gives us a shot at double digits.

Of course.....this is going to be one of those systems where when you measure "by the book" you got 10" but when you shovel at the end it looks like 3"

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