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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


Typhoon Tip
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24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

damn it is going to rip under this,

Look at this sounding. Looks like a nice MAUL too. Roof crushing, tree toppling stuff here

 

Yup...I'm still expecting thunder - 

... I also posted about this last hour, I wonder if the wind is being considered enough?  I haven't read BOX AFD just yet...   Still just staring at the FOUS numbers like a deer in head-lights.  f'n wow -

The numbers of that grid really suggest an isollabaric wind perturbation ... 11 kts to 35 kts in 6 hours, might be the best the resolution of the NAM can do to warn you that you may go from benign to leaning white noise in an "air" of rapidity - to put it nicely... The 1009 to 996 pressure fall in 6 hours is the key-stone clue!  That's an abrupt acceleration, and if the mix already has gone over to snow first, that is probably going to impose a siggy grid implication.  

People really should take it seriously what even 4" of blue bomb snow type, weight loads telegraph lines and trees...particularly ... temp squeezes toward freezing, then sends wind through the scaffolding... Yeah... o-  kay.    40 to 45 mph winds.  We proooobably won't generate those winds out in Lee or Fitchburg...Sutton ... But, places like Bedford, Framingham... these'll be right at the deformation where the wind field responds to the bombogenesis in the Harbor ... gulping in restorative mass like hapless sun that strayed too close to Sagittarius A-star - the Quazar in this metaphor will be the electric spatter and blue flashes over the treetops. 

But ...I love my hyperbole - 

Seriously though... I think this could be a unique grid issue in this particular event based on present blends and trends ...lain-over experience.  But we'll see

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup...I'm still expecting thunder - 

... I also posted about this last hour, I wonder if the wind is being considered enough?  I have read BOX AFD just yet...   Still just staring at the FOUS numbers like a deer in head-lights.  f'n wow -

The numbers of that grid really suggest an isollabaric wind perturbation ... 11 kts to 35 kts in 6 hours, might be the best the resolution of the NAM can do to warn you that you may go from benign to leaning white noise in an "air" of rapidity - to put it nicely... The 1009 to 996 pressure fall in 6 hours is the key-stone clue!  That's an abrupt acceleration, and if the mix already has gone over to snow first, that is probably going to impose a siggy grid implication.  

People really should take it seriously what even 4" of blue bomb snow type, weight loads telegraph lines and trees...particularly ... temp squeezes toward freezing, then sends wind through the scaffolding... Yeah... o-  kay.    40 to 45 mph winds.  We proooobably won't generate those winds out in Lee or Fitchburg...Sutton ... But, places like Bedford, Framingham... these'll be right at the deformation where the wind field responds to the bombogenesis in the Harbor ... gulping in restorative mass like hapless sun that strayed too close to Sagittarius A-star - the Quazar in this metaphor will be the electric spatter and blue flashes over the treetops. 

But ...I love my hyperbole - 

Seriously though... I think this could be a unique grid issue in this particular event based on present blends and trends ...lain-over experience.  But we'll see

Widespread power issues are certainly a possibility here...thankfully trees are bare so not sure this will be as bad as say 2011 but this aspect should be addressed. Right when this band materializes places will flip from RA to +SN probably in the matter of 10-15 minutes. 

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Not taking the 10:1 clown verbatim, but rather using it for QPF in the form of snow. 
 

However, we could really go nuts with the snow growth at the peak of it so even if it’s a pastey 8:1 cement at first we could still more than make up for it with the ratios with the mid level banding through that max DGZ. So for some it could be a little like Oct 11 if we can get down to <32° during the meat and potatoes of it. 

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Not taking the 10:1 clown verbatim, but rather using it for QPF in the form of snow. 
 

However, we could really go nuts with the snow growth at the peak of it so even if it’s a pastey 8:1 cement at first we could still more than make up for it with the ratios with the mid level banding through that max DGZ. So for some it could be a little like Oct 11 if we can get down to <32° during the meat and potatoes of it. 

Was thinking that. If you get to like 31.8 and slam the DGZ...ratios would be better than 10:1.

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The biggest thing I’d worry about is that the low levels start pretty warm. 925 is still warm on Saturday morning so there’s definitely going to be big dynamics needed. It looks like we get them but I could see it taking a little while to flip. 

Liking the earlier development and lil west tics...

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