weatherwiz Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 maybe my map from yesterday actually won't be that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: ICON is really wound-up too. Starting to get excited. Just need another yes from Dr No. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Right over the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: CT will ask for it 5 days after the storm And then watch as we get our turn while NYSEG, RG&E, CONED, and so on are off trying to help Connecticut 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 I think we finally have the solution today at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: damn it is going to rip under this, Look at this sounding. Looks like a nice MAUL too. Roof crushing, tree toppling stuff here Yup...I'm still expecting thunder - ... I also posted about this last hour, I wonder if the wind is being considered enough? I haven't read BOX AFD just yet... Still just staring at the FOUS numbers like a deer in head-lights. f'n wow - The numbers of that grid really suggest an isollabaric wind perturbation ... 11 kts to 35 kts in 6 hours, might be the best the resolution of the NAM can do to warn you that you may go from benign to leaning white noise in an "air" of rapidity - to put it nicely... The 1009 to 996 pressure fall in 6 hours is the key-stone clue! That's an abrupt acceleration, and if the mix already has gone over to snow first, that is probably going to impose a siggy grid implication. People really should take it seriously what even 4" of blue bomb snow type, weight loads telegraph lines and trees...particularly ... temp squeezes toward freezing, then sends wind through the scaffolding... Yeah... o- kay. 40 to 45 mph winds. We proooobably won't generate those winds out in Lee or Fitchburg...Sutton ... But, places like Bedford, Framingham... these'll be right at the deformation where the wind field responds to the bombogenesis in the Harbor ... gulping in restorative mass like hapless sun that strayed too close to Sagittarius A-star - the Quazar in this metaphor will be the electric spatter and blue flashes over the treetops. But ...I love my hyperbole - Seriously though... I think this could be a unique grid issue in this particular event based on present blends and trends ...lain-over experience. But we'll see 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I think we finally have the solution today at 12z Euro will graze us now and cause mass hysteria in here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 That's a little mild even inland ern ma. So close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Luke, take your lips off the pipe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 These NW tics are not helping areas just away from the coast, Going to need to see this tic back east in the next 12hrs or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: These NW tics are not helping areas just away from the coast, Going to need to see this tic back east in the next 12hrs or so. I feel like this has NW tics coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yup...I'm still expecting thunder - ... I also posted about this last hour, I wonder if the wind is being considered enough? I have read BOX AFD just yet... Still just staring at the FOUS numbers like a deer in head-lights. f'n wow - The numbers of that grid really suggest an isollabaric wind perturbation ... 11 kts to 35 kts in 6 hours, might be the best the resolution of the NAM can do to warn you that you may go from benign to leaning white noise in an "air" of rapidity - to put it nicely... The 1009 to 996 pressure fall in 6 hours is the key-stone clue! That's an abrupt acceleration, and if the mix already has gone over to snow first, that is probably going to impose a siggy grid implication. People really should take it seriously what even 4" of blue bomb snow type, weight loads telegraph lines and trees...particularly ... temp squeezes toward freezing, then sends wind through the scaffolding... Yeah... o- kay. 40 to 45 mph winds. We proooobably won't generate those winds out in Lee or Fitchburg...Sutton ... But, places like Bedford, Framingham... these'll be right at the deformation where the wind field responds to the bombogenesis in the Harbor ... gulping in restorative mass like hapless sun that strayed too close to Sagittarius A-star - the Quazar in this metaphor will be the electric spatter and blue flashes over the treetops. But ...I love my hyperbole - Seriously though... I think this could be a unique grid issue in this particular event based on present blends and trends ...lain-over experience. But we'll see Widespread power issues are certainly a possibility here...thankfully trees are bare so not sure this will be as bad as say 2011 but this aspect should be addressed. Right when this band materializes places will flip from RA to +SN probably in the matter of 10-15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Not taking the 10:1 clown verbatim, but rather using it for QPF in the form of snow. However, we could really go nuts with the snow growth at the peak of it so even if it’s a pastey 8:1 cement at first we could still more than make up for it with the ratios with the mid level banding through that max DGZ. So for some it could be a little like Oct 11 if we can get down to <32° during the meat and potatoes of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Luke, take your lips off the pipe. that is really close in this neck of the woods....Looks to be some nice banding on the western half of the GFS location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 GFS says west is best up in C/NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like this has NW tics coming. That is a potent s/w down south, Your also getting some earlier phasing now to as the explosive development yesterday was cape north and now its seems to be around LI to the cape further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Not taking the 10:1 clown verbatim, but rather using it for QPF in the form of snow. However, we could really go nuts with the snow growth at the peak of it so even if it’s a pastey 8:1 cement at first we could still more than make up for it with the ratios with the mid level banding through that max DGZ. So for some it could be a little like Oct 11 if we can get down to <32° during the meat and potatoes of it. Was thinking that. If you get to like 31.8 and slam the DGZ...ratios would be better than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: These NW tics are not helping areas just away from the coast, Going to need to see this tic back east in the next 12hrs or so. TROWAL you lookz good won’t you back dat band up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like this has NW tics coming. We play with fire. Might end up 33 and rain, but might also end up with no power for a week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 I was thinking ratios maybe 12:1 - 13:1 if you can maximize the lift into the DGZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 toast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: The biggest thing I’d worry about is that the low levels start pretty warm. 925 is still warm on Saturday morning so there’s definitely going to be big dynamics needed. It looks like we get them but I could see it taking a little while to flip. Liking the earlier development and lil west tics... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: GFS says west is best up in C/NNE Is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Well, at least confidence is growing that it won't develop too late for this area. Main issue will be getting it to flip to snow with these NW tics. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I was thinking ratios maybe 12:1 - 13:1 if you can maximize the lift into the DGZ No way, Not that high, Not to start anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Driving 30 miles to work at 6pm tomorrow night should be fun.. ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: No way, Not that high, Not to start anyways. during the height of it under the heaviest part of the band...that's is lift into the DGZ is maximized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: Is it? Clown. Decent shift W and N from 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: No way, Not that high. You totally could. Will your measurement say that high, probably not, but the actual snow falling under the best forcing will be in that 12:1 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now