weathafella Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Yeah once I’m at the hotel/motel I’ll just be walking. I’ll bring some food etc. let me check out some places in Henniker. Thanks all I got a couple great recommendations. Now let’s hope the RGEMs temps are wrong lol. Don’t worry about RGEM. It’s still resting on its laurels from 2015 despite sucking since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 12/9/05 definitely had a better airmass all around. This has a strong vort, but garbage air all over. Yea, I didn't even start as rain in Wilmington in that one...Reading, on the other side of 128 did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 12/9/05 or 12/23/97? The former....it's like a 50-55 (10^-5/S) magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 12/9/05 definitely had a better airmass all around. This has a strong vort, but garbage air all over. If we had a 12/9/05 airmass, we'd be looking at 15-20 easy where the max stripe goes...prob some 20+. This moves slower than that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The former....it's like a 50-55 (10^-5/S) magnitude. I jacked 12/9/05...like 16" in a few hours time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 damn it is going to rip under this, Look at this sounding. Looks like a nice MAUL too. Roof crushing, tree toppling stuff here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Will we see a tropo fold like '05? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: damn it is going to rip under this, Look at this sounding. Looks like a nice MAUL too. Roof crushing, tree toppling stuff here That moves up over CT in prior frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Calling the recording of the BOS ASOS from San Diego 12/9/05 was a huge gut punch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 29 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: I think I’m gonna head somewhere off the highway in Concord. I drive a sports car and I’m not able to leave until like 5pm tonight so a 6 hour drive I’ll just be beating it, but I don’t wanna drive on rough roads Just make sure it's because you turned on your direction signal and moved to the off-ramp in a purposeful...successfully executed series of movements - LOL ... I mean, 'head somewhere off the highway' sounds like a comedic lead in to what happens on snow covered roads - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That moves up over CT in prior frames yeah NE CT gets into this as it cranks. I'll have to re-do my snow map from yesterday...pretty off as I had the jack in NW CT (damn it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 I'm likely watching this one from afar or from the edges anyway barring a TB12 Super Bowl LI type comeback. RGEM offers a bit of hope that I at least get something. It can happen. I remember the 3/7-8/18 nor'easter that was modeled to go slightly east and I wound up getting 3'+ from a sick deform band that sat up over me for several hours and dumped... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 24 minutes ago, RDRY said: 24 minutes ago, RDRY said: I'm aware of that. Over two decades up here seeing when watches are issued, I found the call to be oddly out of sync with the modeling. It requires much more forecasting certainty at that lead time to issue watches in these parts. If the mets making the call simply anticipated an outcome divergent with the modeling, they've never referenced it in their write-ups. Yes they are out of sync, and in addition they have to anchor themselves with consistency in their forecast packages against wildly shifting models IE yesterday’s MA watches being issued while several models wanted to remove snow from that area and shift focus onto Maine. furthermore, central and eastern NWS offices has to prepare the afternoon package before 18z model runs come out anyway so from our perspective it can look like 18z is being ignored. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 31 minutes ago, tunafish said: That's a good call. Henniker, NH. You can get there via 202, which is essentially a one-lane highway. I wouldn't advise going up to Pats Peak in a sports car. The roads to get there are winding. "Downtown" Henniker might be good enough. You can walk around there, too, by the river. Pats peak barely has elevation at base . I have chased that area and wasn’t impressed w elevation ..especially down town .You drive an extra 4o r or so from concord thru honkey tonk Ville and perhaps Gets further west from banding . Maybe , tough call. I like 1K in Temple NH , you cut N at ORH and it’s a faster drive and I think it’s prime for banding . BirchWood inn 1050’ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Seeing it more and more. Models -- with their varying programming parameters -- are having a brutal time with these bombing coastals. Almost like the atmosphere has gotten away from them. They're all over the place even within a day of the event. Forecasters' nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Will we see a tropo fold like '05? It was nice knowing James. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 22 minutes ago, RDRY said: I'm aware of that. Over two decades up here seeing when watches are issued, I found the call to be oddly out of sync with the modeling. It requires much more forecasting certainty at that lead time to issue watches in these parts. If the mets making the call simply anticipated an outcome divergent with the modeling, they've never referenced it in their write-ups. GYX was noting model flip-flops and potential huge impacts on qpf and p-type, starting before they posted the watch. Can't speak for other WSOs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 GFS probably ticks west it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, OceanStWx said: It was nice knowing James. Great...well prepare for an incoming post about how winds of 90+ knots at H3 means 70-80 mph gusts at the sfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 12z RGEM is a mauling here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, tamarack said: GYX was noting model flip-flops and potential huge impacts on qpf and p-type, starting before they posted the watch. Can't speak for other WSOs. We were essentially running out of time for watches yesterday. They are typically a 36-48 hour product, and given the scale of this potential a headline is kind of preferred. Now if you're talking the difference between double digits and 0 snow, a watch still makes sense. It's essentially 50/50 you'll get warning, but the lower bound is just a skunk rather than a few inches. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Yeah GFS is slightly more phased at 24h....should be a tick west, which will match other 12z guidance better because the 06z GFS tracked this over ACK and outside the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: It was nice knowing James. Love the smell of ozone in the AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Massive infrastructure issues Regionwide border to border 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM is still a furnace. Also more amped...buzzard bay track. Still weird to see the sfc so torched though....at 21z tomorrow, it has -1C 925 over my head with -3C 850 temps and it's like 37F, lol Wasn't the reggie super torched at 2m during the last event we had? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 GFS right over the elbow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Massive infrastructure issues Regionwide border to border We will send in our Power Companies to assist, rest assured Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It was nice knowing James. Passed out from ozone after reaching the 304,542nd word in Dawn Awakening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 ICON is really wound-up too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, crossbowftw3 said: We will send in our Power Companies to assist, rest assured CT will ask for it 5 days after the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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