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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


Typhoon Tip
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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You can always tell by his reverse psych posts. He knows he’s in Jack zone and posts.. “ I’ll probably get less than I did in October storm”

I didn't post that that was probable... was just wondering.  I think 6-9" in my area is reasonable.  I doubt I get a foot+     That would require poundage for a long time

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12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

For the Mets and smarter folks . I notice for the track the winds  don’t have much  e/ene  Inflow at all. Will this place more emphasis on other factors performing or does it just sort of limit dynamic cooling to rates and Not (orographic lift over Orh Hill’s and also not wring out moisture on E slopes . 
 

I.E jack could be anywhere it pounds super hard 

Shoulder season events often are primarily driven by latent heat processes. Given that there isn't serious antecedent cold, or strong advective processes for getting cold into the region, this one seems like it will be no different. The biggest latent heat process will be latent heat of melting. Throw a ton of snow in the column and you will cool it by melting those snowflakes and taking heat from the boundary layer. So yes, if you have high rate precipitation you can flip faster and stay snow longer. 

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The biggest thing I’d worry about is that the low levels start pretty warm. 925 is still warm on Saturday morning so there’s definitely going to be big dynamics needed. It looks like we get them but I could see it taking a little while to flip. 

Even the typically cool in precip NAM has the lower boundary layer torched to start. So there will definitely be some work to do with getting down to around just the lowest 1000-1500 ft above freezing.

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Shoulder season events often are primarily driven by latent heat processes. Given that there isn't serious antecedent cold, or strong advective processes for getting cold into the region, this one seems like it will be no different. The biggest latent heat process will be latent heat of melting. Throw a ton of snow in the column and you will cool it by melting those snowflakes and taking heat from the boundary layer. So yes, if you have high rate precipitation you can flip faster and stay snow longer. 

Even the typically cool in precip NAM has the lower boundary layer torched to start. So there will definitely be some work to do with getting down to around just the lowest 1000-1500 ft above freezing.

Yeah I envision  the snowfall aspect being like a 4-6 hour event for the meat of it over lower elevations....maybe an extra couple hours for places like ORH.

It's obviously a tough forecast still because we know that there is potential to dump 10" in 5-6 hours, but that also there is potential that it only accumulates to like 3-4" of slop.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I envision  the snowfall aspect being like a 4-6 hour event for the meat of it over lower elevations....maybe an extra couple hours for places like ORH.

It's obviously a tough forecast still because we know that there is potential to dump 10" in 5-6 hours, but that also there is potential that it only accumulates to like 3-4" of slop.

That's what the HRRR is doing. Like 6-7 straight hours of 1-2"/hr. 

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