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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


Typhoon Tip
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You all have it... fun and snow change challenging for your area. I've nothing to add that you're not already aware of. Monitor the HRRR 06z, 12z,18z/4  trends realizing the HRRR tends to run a little warm (or did prior to the upgrade of a couple days ago). Its the furthest west of the 00z-06z/4 operational modeling. 

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9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Its the only hope us westerners have at this point. Not expecting anything besides some cold December rain...

Would you look at that lol! Doesn't that kind of fit with what Tip and others were talking about yesterday that some banding and dynamics could be somewhat more west than shown on the clowns? Be interesting to watch for sure. So not ready for snow at work...too many generators on backorder

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3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Would you look at that lol! Doesn't that kind of fit with what Tip and others were talking about yesterday that some banding and dynamics could be somewhat more west than shown on the clowns? Be interesting to watch for sure. So not ready for snow at work...too many generators on backorder!

I still think that will be the case to a point. So does it track a little further west? That is possible. As it bombs, does it try to contract closer to the low? Possible as well.

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19 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I wonder if my October storm will be bigger than this one. 6.5”

I'm anticipating a redux here.

 

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

6z REGGIE  The 6z Canadian guidance is a late-bloomer on both their mesoscale products.

The spread in ensembles is still insane at this time too.

rgem-all-neng-total_snow_10to1-7306400.thumb.png.05b8566d893c07ace43b4a95d21211b9.png

 

:yikes:

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Funny how this whole thread may come full circle to having to discuss @Typhoon Tip and his global warming thesis. 
 

Now this topic is relevant where 1-2C temp anomalies greatly alter the specific outcomes at the margin. And a bunch of us are —curiously— at the margin...I know, I know, it’s still early December climo, which is far from “peak winter” for a chunk of SNE. But I can’t help but look at everything for my area and connect a NWS forecasted 4” snowfall for my back yard on December 5, with a near perfect track/storm bombing in the GOM where we should be talking feet. Ultimately I think this forecast busts low. But* the fact that less than 6” is a high probability at this hr is quite something, imo. Everything would make much more sense if the date was Nov 20, and not Dec 5th... Which I guess is all I’m trying to say...

 

 

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