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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

The local news is way too depressing to watch these days. In Baltimore it was at least.

News in general is depressing, yup, but I’ve always watched my favorite TV Met especially with an impending storm. It may have something to do being addicted to TWC back in the 80s and 90s. Even with forums, models, and SM...I still need to see my guy on air putting up a map. 

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Anyways, I’m prob not staying up for the euro. But I wouldn’t expect a large change. Given the 00z trend I wouldn’t be surprised if it tickled back a little west like 12z. 

 

You said you didn’t remember the last time it was this tough for modeling?  
 

I’m remembering a storm in March...I believe it was ‘18, where it couldn’t be pinned down the night of...it was supposed to be big, a foot plus, but Ryan was saying he had a bad feeling that it wouldn’t materialize, models were all over the place. and Kevin was insistent on the foot plus.  Got maybe 1-2 inches at most overnight. 

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I'm feeling a bit better back this way and I was earlier.  Hopefully the precip shield will continue to blossom and fill in on the western side of the system a bit more on the models . When you see the placement of the SLP you would think  that would be the case.  Earlier phasing would definitely help accomplish that as well.   

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

News in general is depressing, yup, but I’ve always watched my favorite TV Met especially with an impending storm. It may have something to do being addicted to TWC back in the 80s and 90s. Even with forums, models, and SM...I still need to see my guy on air putting up a map. 

I miss Kocin for sure. He was a must-watch for me. A rare TV met that actually seemed excited about snow. Often, they seem to try to downplay every event because most people find snow to be a major nuisance.

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15 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I miss Kocin for sure. He was a must-watch for me. A rare TV met that actually seemed excited about snow. Often, they seem to try to downplay every event because most people find snow to be a major nuisance.

A lot of tv mets here are big snow lovers.  Harvey Leonard here in Boston is superb and somehow he manages to keep himself objective.  He’s close to my age so I suspect he won’t be broadcasting much longer.

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19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya..a 983 inside the BM, is a big hit for CT.  So I agree with you CTvalleysnowman. 

2m temps are not great, there will be some pretty dramatic cut off lines for snow and no. You and ‘Berg and the rest o’ your lot, don’t want this going over Chatham because by then a lot of QPF will have been wasted.  
 

edit:  *(“then” meaning the flip to snow.)
 

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7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

2m temps are not great, there will be some pretty dramatic cut off lines for snow and no. You and ‘Berg and the rest o’ your lot, don’t want this going over Chatham because by then a lot of QPF will have been wasted.  
 

edit:  *(“then” meaning the flip to snow.)
 

We agree the air mass sucks.  But dynamics could easily get wolfie and Luke decent snows.  As long as mid levels don’t close off too far north they’ll get some snow (after rain).

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35 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

News in general is depressing, yup, but I’ve always watched my favorite TV Met especially with an impending storm. It may have something to do being addicted to TWC back in the 80s and 90s. Even with forums, models, and SM...I still need to see my guy on air putting up a map. 

Do you ever remember those documentary VHS ads on The Weather Channel in the 90's? I would beg my mom for the tornado and hurricane ones. Then after you order it you had to wait 4-6 weeks for it to come.

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We agree the air mass sucks.  But dynamics could easily get wolfie and Luke decent snows.  As long as mid levels don’t close off too far north they’ll get some snow (after rain).

You are riding the dynamic line if you are back in Brookline for the storm.  Gon’ be fun to track a legit big storm. 

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6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You are riding the dynamic line if you are back in Brookline for the storm.  Gon’ be fun to track a legit big storm. 

Yes although my hood in south Brookline thankfully tends to do better vs Coolidge Corner or Brookline Village.  Hey 10/30 was legit!

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47 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I miss Kocin for sure. He was a must-watch for me. A rare TV met that actually seemed excited about snow. Often, they seem to try to downplay every event because most people find snow to be a major nuisance.

I like your webcam view. Use it at work at gyx at times to keep an eye on the wx up your way.

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Yes although my hood in south Brookline thankfully tends to do better vs Coolidge Corner or Brookline Village.  Hey 10/30 was legit!

Yeah, I did not have the elevation or the rates for the October storm.   The Boston metro area is super interesting for snow.  I grew up in Cambridge and I’ve lived in a bunch of places within 10 miles of the city.  There are significant differences from town to town in Suffolk and Middlesex county.

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1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Sweet! Glad it comes in handy. I can imagine obs start getting kinda sparse up here. Trying to upgrade my internet here so the cam feed is sharper and more reliable. 

Decent live webcams like yours aren’t a dime a dozen in this forecast area. Yours is sweet. Cams like yours help a ton...especially coming into snow squall season. 

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Given how steady Euro has been last 3 runs, I'd say NAM not latching on to anything other than noise

Assuming dynamics can overcome 2m temps, which I think they would as depicted on Euro, getting more confident for 3-6" in Boston area

Obviously still some fluctuations we'll see in the next 12 hours and will wait until 12z suite tomorrow for final calls

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6z NAM much better than 0z NAM... bombs away 36-42hrs for eSNE

Similar to 12z 12/3 NAM, but slightly later development which will hurt southwestern folks, but otherwise big hit central-eastern SNE / eastern NH / eastern ME

Fair to say the 0z NAM non-event was an egregious outlier

NAM_20201204_6z_54h.jpg.015ccee6ad43c0afbb2bfbd5274864ca.jpg

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