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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I was wondering that, too......kind of RGEM type thermal issue.

I was just interpreting verbatim.

Oh ha. I thought that was directed at the straw man ..

it’s all good. 

yeah no way the GFS scores holding liquid that long when the sub-700 is getting flipped over by intense UVM ...

 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Miscommunication. I thought you meant the solution verbatim. I have no issue with it being too warm given the scenario.

all good, I did worry when I saw that dry air not too far away, if we get shitty rates then I assume I will be stuck with light rain and 34 while is snowing at 1000ft

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Miscommunication. I thought you meant the solution verbatim. I have no issue with it being too warm given the scenario.

Thanks for explaining yourself.  I thought with the crashing 850/925 it would snow much further East and south than depicted on those always suspect clowns.

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Thanks.  The bumps West are a little surprising to me but let’s see what tomorrow brings.

I’m not sure one should be…

I’ve been saying all along .... should the northern stream comes over the border over the lakes and it’s more intense ...it was under assimilated or under sampled because it was passing through a bit of a data shadowing up there then the phase is going to torque the flow more ...the storm ends up being pulled in closer

im not saying it’s good or bad I’m just talking about the storm track is the feedback from strength of the troposphere

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7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What time to we get to interpret the UKIE tea leaves 

You can get it out to 36h on plymouth state pretty early but then we have to wait until like 1140-1145 on meteocentre to get anything else including precip maps  

Here’s 850 and 500 at 36h 

 

415EE5BD-A628-49B5-B437-AAD85751F928.gif

848E9068-FC75-4E6D-A117-EFA4F7D05129.gif

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Just watched my local met, Ryan H on wvit in CT. He will not side with either solution yet. He said 1 model has the storm walloping CT with heavy rain changing to Heavy Snow Saturday.  Then he said the other model is way out to sea and not really doing much for us. He does have a first alert for Saturday for the potential for a major storm. Said that Bob maxon ( other met ) Will and should have a better handle on the storm tomorrow morning. He also said it's not often where things are so up in the air only 36 hours out.

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Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Just watched my local met, Ryan H on wvit in CT. He will not side with either solution yet. He said 1 model has the storm walloping CT with heavy rain changing to Heavy Snow Saturday.  Then he said the other model is way out to sea and not really doing much for us. He does have a first alert for Saturday for the potential for a major storm. Said that Bob maxon ( other met ) Will and should have a better handle on the storm tomorrow morning. He also said it's not often where things are so up in the air only 36 hours out.

I said a lot without saying anything lol

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Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Just watched my local met, Ryan H on wvit in CT. He will not side with either solution yet. He said 1 model has the storm walloping CT with heavy rain changing to Heavy Snow Saturday.  Then he said the other model is way out to sea and not really doing much for us. He does have a first alert for Saturday for the potential for a major storm. Said that Bob maxon ( other met ) Will and should have a better handle on the storm tomorrow morning. He also said it's not often where things are so up in the air only 36 hours out.

I think the issue there is how quickly it develops....I wouldn't be worried about the NAM.

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8 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Just watched my local met, Ryan H on wvit in CT. He will not side with either solution yet. He said 1 model has the storm walloping CT with heavy rain changing to Heavy Snow Saturday.  Then he said the other model is way out to sea and not really doing much for us. He does have a first alert for Saturday for the potential for a major storm. Said that Bob maxon ( other met ) Will and should have a better handle on the storm tomorrow morning. He also said it's not often where things are so up in the air only 36 hours out.

We watched as well. It’s the right approach.  

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