40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 RGEM is a general 4-8"...ignore the @Dr. Dews generated temp algorithm. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 3:18 AM, wxsniss said: Verbatim 0z RGEM thermals are suspect... has heavy rains to at least ORH Expand There are definitely issues with this airmass. We’ve been skeptical of snow for a week now because of it...but if you get a CCB like the rgem shows, I’d have a hard time believing it doesn’t snow right down to low elevations that get underneath that intense lift. RGEM even had warm low levels in the October storm too. I remember it being a warm outlier so not sure if there is something going on there. Its worth noting though that the euro 2m temps are pretty warm too. But the 925 temps on the euro were colder than the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 3:19 AM, 78Blizzard said: Anything going over the canal at this time of year and with this air mass in place cannot be good for us in E SNE. Expand Not if it's a Nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 3:19 AM, 78Blizzard said: Anything going over the canal at this time of year and with this air mass in place cannot be good for us in E SNE. Expand Yeah, SE areas are definitely having issues with that track, This air mass is marginal to begin with, Climo is not on that side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 The RGEM increased by a foot here from 18z, ICON increased by probably even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 RGEM track would certainly work for these parts (Berks), though the westward precip expansion seems limited. Expand it a bit and dynamics should sufficiently cool the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 3:23 AM, PhineasC said: The RGEM increased by a foot here from 18z, ICON increased by probably even more. Expand Listening to you and randy react to when ea model run comes out the last couple days shows that you guys in the Mid Atlantic have had the rug pulled out from you more times then keeping your footing......ha ha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 3:20 AM, ORH_wxman said: There are definitely issues with this airmass. We’ve been skeptical of snow for a week now because of it...but if you get a CCB like the rgem shows, I’d have a hard time believing it doesn’t snow right down to low elevations that get underneath that intense lift. RGEM even had warm low levels in the October storm too. I remember it being a warm outlier so not sure if there is something going on there. Its worth noting though that the euro 2m temps are pretty warm too. But the 925 temps on the euro were colder than the RGEM. Expand RGEM was garbage in October here if I recall. Didn’t have us really sniffing accumulating snow until go time. Tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 3:20 AM, ORH_wxman said: There are definitely issues with this airmass. We’ve been skeptical of snow for a week now because of it...but if you get a CCB like the rgem shows, I’d have a hard time believing it doesn’t snow right down to low elevations that get underneath that intense lift. RGEM even had warm low levels in the October storm too. I remember it being a warm outlier so not sure if there is something going on there. Its worth noting though that the euro 2m temps are pretty warm too. But the 925 temps on the euro were colder than the RGEM. Expand Yeah I'm looking at soundings on Pivotal... for example between 495 to ORH... 850 and 925 are plenty cold where it's showing heavy rain... I'd expect the 2m temps 35-37F (if those are even correct) should be overcome with the intense rates it's showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 3:21 AM, dryslot said: Yeah, SE areas are definitely having issues with that track, This air mass is marginal to begin with, Climo is not on that side. Expand Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 3:26 AM, dryslot said: Listening to you and randy react to when ea model run comes out the last couple days shows that you guys in the Mid Atlantic have had the rug pulled out from you more times then keeping your footing......ha ha. Expand You just don't know. I definitely have PTSD. You can take the man out of the Mid Atlantic, but you can't take the Mid Atlantic out of the man 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 3:26 AM, dryslot said: Listening to you and randy react to when ea model run comes out the last couple days shows that you guys in the Mid Atlantic have had the rug pulled out from you more times then keeping your footing......ha ha. Expand It’s never ending. Still so many ways to be screwed from the MA perspective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 3:16 AM, ORH_wxman said: Rgem has some funny looking clown maps with that warmish low level Expand It looks almost identical to those euro wx snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 3:33 AM, PhineasC said: It’s never ending. Still so many ways to be screwed from the MA perspective. Expand A good New England screwing makes a MA screwing look like a Puritan first date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Liking the look early on on the 0z GFS, Bit sharper trough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 3:38 AM, dryslot said: Liking the look early on on the 0z GFS, Bit sharper trough. Expand yeah, don't see a big shift east, will see in a few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 3:39 AM, Bostonseminole said: yeah, don't see a big shift east, will see in a few frames Expand This should be a couple tics west actually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 GFS about to go nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 985 west of BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 gfs nukes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 3:38 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: A good New England screwing makes a MA screwing look like a Puritan first date. Expand I could definitely see a scenario where I am -10 and it’s snowing hard in SNE and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Hippy should like this for the Berks I like my hike spot (_Miller state park ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Boom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 983 on the elbow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 RGEM quickly turns the LLVL flow to the N and NW here during the height of the precip so I think it's trying to introduce some dry air into the lower els east of the high terrain. It has 35/33 here at peak intensity, but I'd be willing to bet it would be more like 33/32 during the mod/hvy precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 NNE into the GOM 979 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 GFS is a coop collapser up here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Huge hit on 0z GFS, NW of 18z With 0z RGEM and ICON also NW, 0z NAM is now looking like the anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Wow, 00z suite is rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 allot of QPF on that run.. wish it was all snow .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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