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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


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Just now, wxsniss said:

Verbatim 0z RGEM thermals are suspect... has heavy rains to at least ORH

There are definitely issues with this airmass. We’ve been skeptical of snow for a week now because of it...but if you get a CCB like the rgem shows, I’d have a hard time believing it doesn’t snow right down to low elevations that get underneath that intense lift.

RGEM even had warm low levels in the October storm too. I remember it being a warm outlier so not sure if there is something going on there. 

Its worth noting though that the euro 2m temps are pretty warm too. But the 925 temps on the euro were colder than the RGEM.  

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Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Anything going over the canal at this time of year and with this air mass in place cannot be good for us in E SNE.

Yeah, SE areas are definitely having issues with that track, This air mass is marginal to begin with, Climo is not on that side.

 

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The RGEM increased by a foot here from 18z, ICON increased by probably even more. 

Listening to you and randy react to when ea model run comes out the last couple days shows that you guys in the Mid Atlantic have had the rug pulled out from you more times then keeping your footing......ha ha.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There are definitely issues with this airmass. We’ve been skeptical of snow for a week now because of it...but if you get a CCB like the rgem shows, I’d have a hard time believing it doesn’t snow right down to low elevations that get underneath that intense lift.

RGEM even had warm low levels in the October storm too. I remember it being a warm outlier so not sure if there is something going on there. 

Its worth noting though that the euro 2m temps are pretty warm too. But the 925 temps on the euro were colder than the RGEM.  

RGEM was garbage in October here if I recall. Didn’t have us really sniffing accumulating snow until go time. Tossed 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There are definitely issues with this airmass. We’ve been skeptical of snow for a week now because of it...but if you get a CCB like the rgem shows, I’d have a hard time believing it doesn’t snow right down to low elevations that get underneath that intense lift.

RGEM even had warm low levels in the October storm too. I remember it being a warm outlier so not sure if there is something going on there. 

Its worth noting though that the euro 2m temps are pretty warm too. But the 925 temps on the euro were colder than the RGEM.  

Yeah I'm looking at soundings on Pivotal... for example between 495 to ORH... 850 and 925 are plenty cold where it's showing heavy rain... I'd expect the 2m temps 35-37F (if those are even correct) should be overcome with the intense rates it's showing

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Listening to you and randy react to when ea model run comes out the last couple days shows that you guys in the Mid Atlantic have had the rug pulled out from you more times then keeping your footing......ha ha.

You just don't know.  I definitely have PTSD.  You can take the man out of the Mid Atlantic, but you can't take the Mid Atlantic out of the man

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6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Listening to you and randy react to when ea model run comes out the last couple days shows that you guys in the Mid Atlantic have had the rug pulled out from you more times then keeping your footing......ha ha.

It’s never ending. Still so many ways to be screwed from the MA perspective. 

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RGEM quickly turns the LLVL flow to the N and NW here during the height of the precip so I think it's trying to introduce some dry air into the lower els east of the high terrain. It has 35/33 here at peak intensity, but I'd be willing to bet it would be more like 33/32 during the mod/hvy precipitation.

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