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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


Typhoon Tip
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For enthusiasts ...you want these subtle increasingly progressive appeals... not hanging around...

I'd be happy to compromise on less residence... 4-6" ...yeah maybe 10 in a meso band... get 'er on outta here ...and I think we're watching the 8th more closely then presently aware. - not the time nor thread for that but it relates due to wave ordering in the synoptic bigger picture.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We would be take the under my man. The euro tick easts after being so wound up never reverse..they just keep ticking. 

Ya maybe so...I guess we’ll see. If it goes any further East at 0z, then ya we’re totally done for sure.  
Oh well, as you said this is the first legit threat of the winter season..so it’s fun to track.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

For enthusiasts ...you want these subtle increasingly progressive appeals... not hanging around...

I'd be happy to compromise on less residence... 4-6" ...yeah maybe 10 in a meso band... get 'er on outta here ...and I think we're watching the 8th more closely then presently aware. - not the time nor thread for that but it relates due to wave ordering in the synoptic bigger picture.

Slightly OT, but...

You prob didn’t see this, but the 18z euro only goes out to 90h so we can’t see beyond this, but it’s phasing 3 shortwaves now behind the 12/5-6 system, most aggressive I’ve seen.....imagine what this would be if we can get the ULL to lift out in the maritimes fast enough. 

 

505F0F6C-A737-4CAA-8695-13C2B54252F5.png

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Slightly OT, but...

You prob didn’t see this, but the 18z euro only goes out to 90h so we can’t see beyond this, but it’s phasing 3 shortwaves now behind the 12/5-6 system, most aggressive I’ve seen.....imagine what this would be if we can get the ULL to lift out in the maritimes fast enough. 

 

505F0F6C-A737-4CAA-8695-13C2B54252F5.png

I need your Saturday storm to move out quickly. Can you make sure to hurry it along? Lol. The airmass is so much better down here for that 2nd system 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Slightly OT, but...

You prob didn’t see this, but the 18z euro only goes out to 90h so we can’t see beyond this, but it’s phasing 3 shortwaves now behind the 12/5-6 system, most aggressive I’ve seen.....imagine what this would be if we can get the ULL to lift out in the maritimes fast enough. 

 

505F0F6C-A737-4CAA-8695-13C2B54252F5.png

yea... just indulge me this one statement but I posted about this in the Dec thread... I'm suspicious of that in the > direction frankly - I'm not shocked at seeing that and I'd also say that it is sufficient already there ( note the short -wave ridging ejecting along the NJ to SNE region is actually a portend ... ) That sig diving wind max west of Chi town factors ...  also, - the 18z GFS tri-wave phases too fwiw -

That may not be right exact but I believe the 8th should be watched - yeah man

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I have misled on this one... Definitely need to see  a northwest trend of 70 miles on the 00z/4 cycle for ne PA, nw corner CT to get anything more than 1-3" As everyone knows, i see the trend too... big development too late except central and eastern New England. I'll ride out the model sways... but I need to see a nw trend when I wake ups and look at the models tomorrow morning.  

I do think models are improving even from 10-30 years ago.  What we have now are ensembles that help us gauge confidence and that helps many of us.  

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1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Is that one for mid week next week? No one is talking about it except one quick mention of something to watch thats put to sea as of now?

There’s still a lot of wave spacing issues with that one...BUT....without getting too off topic for this current thread (I’ll indulge for a second since we’re in the dead zone before 00z runs), the 18z euro solution of phasing all 3 shortwaves allows the system to “wait out” the 12/5-6 system for an extra tick or two, and that could be enough to allow enough ridging to form between the two systems (Tip pointed out the ridging showing up in NJ just a few min ago).

If that can happen, then it becomes a serious threat for the I-95 corridor mid-Atlantic perhaps all the way into New England....baroclincity has already been rejuvenated by 90h down in the Carolinas and VA so it has a path to significance. But it will require that phasing and delay for the wave-spacing to become a little more palatable.  

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22 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I have misled on this one... Definitely need to see  a northwest trend of 70 miles on the 00z/4 cycle for ne PA, nw corner CT to get anything more than 1-3" As everyone knows, i see the trend too... big development too late except central and eastern New England. I'll ride out the model sways... but I need to see a nw trend when I wake ups and look at the models tomorrow morning.  

I do think models are improving even from 10-30 years ago.  What we have now are ensembles that help us gauge confidence and that helps many of us.  

I don't believe this reflects much, Walt and your insights were just as valued/veracious as any.  This particular synoptic evolution leading posed some unique challenges ..despite the 30 years tech advances as you note, here we are at 60 or < lead yet are uneasy over phase proficiency.

I'm still not fully convinced we won't expose/impose some morphology when the eastern Manitoba wind max samples south, and it won't take much to torque around a westerly adjustment - as you noted 2 degrees of longitude is doable at 60 hours.  We can only benefit from what we give said tech and wager our experience.  Not sure the modeling prep is that infallible over interior Canadian shield and having past S of the Alaskan sector - 

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20 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I have misled on this one... Definitely need to see  a northwest trend of 70 miles on the 00z/4 cycle for ne PA, nw corner CT to get anything more than 1-3" As everyone knows, i see the trend too... big development too late except central and eastern New England. I'll ride out the model sways... but I need to see a nw trend when I wake ups and look at the models tomorrow morning.  

I do think models are improving even from 10-30 years ago.  What we have now are ensembles that help us gauge confidence and that helps many of us.  

Walt, I've been waiting for the "late development" rug to get pulled out from under NYS for a few days. W NE is close...as you know, fine line between midlevel haves and have nots.

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

Don't get caught on the wrong side of the Rt 1 line on the Midcoast.  Pit 2 is a mile north.

Pulling a 6-spot will give some of us a foot on the season.  In the words of the great Adam Sandler--'not too shabby.'

I’m fully prepared for Dave and others to have 10x my season total by Monday.  

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One of the best things about systems like this are the invariable melts that take place while waiting for the change to snow.  And the best of all are those instances when the change never comes.  I remember of those those a few years back......I was so happy we had gone up to Bartlett in that one.  Chris texted me that it stayed rain while I was enjoying something like 15" of powder.

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