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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


Typhoon Tip
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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You don’t need to make a final call tonight. I would at least wait until 12z runs tomorrow. 

DIT absolutely hates uncertainty.  With a burning passion, you can tell he hates uncertainty or probabilities...wants to be told one way or the other, yes or no.  Not maybe.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Any gut feeling one way or other for folks thinking they’re getting no snow like Hippy, Runaway, etc? I’m trying to talk them off the tailpipe 

I’d be worried from hippy to runnaway. I wouldn’t be writing it off there this soon though. But we’ll want to see the phasing show just a smidge more life on the 00z suite. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I’d be worried from hippy to runnaway. I wouldn’t be writing it off there this soon though. But we’ll want to see the phasing show just a smidge more life on the 00z suite. 

Fair enough though I would think dollars to donuts they end up in that heavy west band that we always see with these. Especially Runway 

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

 

5fc97df254574.png

Lol. Nice disconnect on this map vs the other 10 to 1 maps.

The reality is probably in between these two. I’m not sure why the euro is trying to hold sfc temps at like 35F while under a CCB with 925 temps of -1C to -2C and 6 hourly qpf of 0.75-1.00....meaning extremely heavy rates. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol. Nice disconnect on this map vs the other 10 to 1 maps.

The reality is probably in between these two. I’m not sure why the euro is trying to hold sfc temps at like 35F while under a CCB with 925 temps of -1C to -2C and 6 hourly qpf of 0.75-1.00....meaning extremely heavy rates. 

Thats what I am thinking.  With the precip  output on the euro , you would think the surface temps would be colder.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol. Nice disconnect on this map vs the other 10 to 1 maps.

The reality is probably in between these two. I’m not sure why the euro is trying to hold sfc temps at like 35F while under a CCB with 925 temps of -1C to -2C and 6 hourly qpf of 0.75-1.00....meaning extremely heavy rates. 

Did it weaken the system at all?  Tighter banding? 

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Did it weaken the system at all?  Tighter banding? 

Nah it was similar to 12z. The 12z run did this too with the sfc temps. 

If you see 925 temps near 0C then it could be an issue but they are clearly going a tick or two below that which says to me this is 31F underneath that type of CCB. 

Now if rates aren’t huge, then it would definitely be more of an issue. 

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