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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


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Meh... NAM beyond 48 hours... 

Probably lucky to have had the sort of "continuity" that we've had up to this point with this guidance. 

I was just commenting over in the Dec thread that you know we've predicated much on the assumption that the models ( if we're even thinking about it...) are cogent with their sampling/initializations of that crucial N/stream S/W ... that's gotta be accurate to accurately assess what happens during/proficiency of phasing ..timing ... all of it. 

It's up over the western shores of JB ... I dunno ..perhaps satellite soundings are wholly sufficient but I got a feeling that could also impost some shorter term morphologies on this thing when that starts cutting over Michigan 24 hours from now. 

So all of that ... plus, the NAM suffers from this sort of vicissitudes at those ranges anyway - ... I guess in short my thinking on this doesn't deviate at all based upon any a single 60 hour NAM solution - I'm sure no one else's does either, just sayn'

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I'm certainly going to trust the 12z Euro solution and consensus of the globals over one run of 18z NAM....especially at the time frame we are talking (~48-60hrs out) but a weaker and more east solution would certainly suck. I'd rather the system be amped and more west drenching me with two inches of rain if that means ski country gets crushed. I'm going to be pissed if the major mountains in NH and ME smoke cirrus on this one. This is a big opportunity for resorts to be able to expand terrain and spread everyone out before the holiday rush, something that could prove vital to them saying open with recent COVID statistics. 

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