dryslot Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Curious about that 18z Euro run ? 6:45 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 GFS let’s a lot of air out of many balloons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: GFS let’s a lot of air out of many balloons. Not mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: GFS let’s a lot of air out of many balloons. An off hour 18z run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not mine. You don’t live in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: An off hour 18z run? I think that’s an old trope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: You don’t live in NNE. If the Euro holds in an hour I will not be too worried. The other models look more the the Euro than the GFS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Unfortunately I think the GFS has led the way more often than not the last year with these systems. Whereas it often had a progressive bias and would eventually cave to the Euro/UK/NAM blend, it seems as if more than often the last year it's the other way around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 2, 2020 Author Share Posted December 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Unfortunately I think the GFS has led the way more often than not the last year with these systems. Whereas it often had a progressive bias and would eventually cave to the Euro/UK/NAM blend, it seems as if more than often the last year it's the other way around. Not a bad assessment actually ... To re-iterate...the GFS has a speed bias that is hidden by the fact that the general circulation everywhere has in fact sped up over the last decade. It's sort of 'masking' the GFS' bias inside that making it less notable ...and one such way that manifest is what you are noticing - imho. Because I've noticed that myself - it's the old "right for the wrong reason" ... In other words, I don't know or believe that the GFS is really arriving to these faster shred asunder appeals 'organically' ... It does seem the problems with the Euro began as the seasonal circulations speed up kicked in ... - it's like the environmental arena is changing in favor of one and not the other. interesting - if supposition/anecdotal .. That said, I'm not sure the GFS is right in this case ... just yet. Like to see the N/stream get sampled better as it is N of Alberta/Manatoba over the lower archipelago of the NW Canadian shield as of 18z ... It cold nose over the border at 10 kts added and make a big difference... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Should never have started a thread--the kiss of death. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, moneypitmike said: Should never have started a thread--the kiss of death. Every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 20 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think that’s an old trope. Old news from 10 years ago. Off hour runs are just as relevant and accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Old news from 10 years ago. Off hour runs are just as relevant and accurate. Still a valid part of the weenie playbook. It’s an older code sir, but it checks out. Just like the weekend rule. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just need the EE rule to overrule........... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Old news from 10 years ago. Off hour runs are just as relevant and accurate. We all know DIT knows this. Just gotta follow whichever direction the weenie blows. 18z run misses: “We’re using off hour runs now?” 18z run crushes: “6/18z runs are just as good as 0/12z now” 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Just need the EE rule to overrule........... Not that long ago we all would have just tossed the GFS if the other models were lined up with the Euro. It was a lock. It doesn’t snow in MD so down there I guess we never noticed the Euro sucks now. No models even give us digital snow at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 My opinion..Euro will cave toward GFS at 18z. In my opinion it won’t come again with the monster nuke it had at 12z. Just my call/opinion. If it does...then I think we have to take the big idea a tad more seriously if it goes back to back. It had the big idea back on Monday at 12z, but then lost it until today at 12z. Can it hold the big storm idea for more than a random run? The old Euro used to in this range...but this current Euro ain’t what he used to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Hopefully the GFS is just off with the phase. But then again, I think I'm in a catch-22 situation for Northern Main. To little phasing...meh. Too much..rain comes up Woah you’re in Maine now? I’m def going to Randy’s during a winter threat. Best chance to get 8”...might even get some snow too 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not a bad assessment actually ... To re-iterate...the GFS has a speed bias that is hidden by the fact that the general circulation everywhere has in fact sped up over the last decade. It's sort of 'masking' the GFS' bias inside that making it less notable ...and one such way that manifest is what you are noticing - imho. Because I've noticed that myself - it's the old "right for the wrong reason" ... In other words, I don't know or believe that the GFS is really arriving to these faster shred asunder appeals 'organically' ... It does seem the problems with the Euro began as the seasonal circulations speed up kicked in ... - it's like the environmental arena is changing in favor of one and not the other. interesting - if supposition/anecdotal .. That said, I'm not sure the GFS is right in this case ... just yet. Like to see the N/stream get sampled better as it is N of Alberta/Manatoba over the lower archipelago of the NW Canadian shield as of 18z ... It cold nose over the border at 10 kts added and make a big difference... Yea. We’ve been stuck in fast flows for several winters now so the gfs has had the right idea more often than not, even if it’s particular solution isn’t spot on...but the euro idea of wrapping up cyclones off the coast of NJ as if the flow is slow and buckled is almost always overdone. Model bias at play unrecognizable of the fast-er wave movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: My opinion..Euro will cave toward GFS at 18z. In my opinion it won’t come again with the monster nuke it had at 12z. Just my call/opinion. If it does...then I think we have to take the big idea a tad more seriously if it goes back to back. It had the big idea back on Monday at 12z, but then lost it until today at 12z. Can it hold the big storm idea for more than a random run? The old Euro used to in this range...but this current Euro ain’t what he used to be. It could cave from the biblical look but still show 5-10 hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Woah you’re in Maine now? I’m def going to Randy’s during a winter threat. Best chance to get 8”...might even get some snow too Him and Zwts are visiting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It could cave from the biblical look but still show 5-10 hopefully. We typically always “look past” his opinions . FYI 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: We typically always “look past” his opinions . FYI Dude everybody looks past you BS! You’re a total Joke! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: We typically always “look past” his opinions . FYI You two are like an arguing married couple on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 We are in mid-season form with the jabs, at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You two are like an arguing married couple on here. The Odd couple? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: You two are like an arguing married couple on here. Too easy lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Winter wolf and damage in tolland are like oil and vinegar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 Just now, JoshSnow said: What are the chances New York City and Boston get their first inch with this? There’s a better chance of Josh getting no snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 2, 2020 Share Posted December 2, 2020 25 minutes ago, dryslot said: Just need the EE rule to overrule........... Weekend rule is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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