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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


Typhoon Tip
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6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think T-2” is more reasonable. 

Yup, just commenting on what the Euro was showing...I'm sticking with 1-3", elevations do best. Slushy coating down here in the valley.

It was 22⁰ this morning, everything frozen...now it is 51⁰ and a sweatshirt is all that is needed in the sun. Seems reasonable for early December.

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2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Yup, just commenting on what the Euro was showing...I'm sticking with 1-3", elevations do best. Slushy coating down here in the valley.

It was 22⁰ this morning, everything frozen...now it is 51⁰ and a sweatshirt is all that is needed in the sun. Seems reasonable for early December.

Yea euro is overdone. I was out in a t shirt before, this is winter, but at least the sun angle is low. 

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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is going to be super exciting. Awesome to see guidance convergence on something fun and meaningful. I'm salivating at this band potential. Was looking at some bufkit soundings and holy smokes. GFS had like -30 to -40 units of omega tickle the DGZ at MHT

Sorry if already posted

image.thumb.png.612a386c86c91d2a100ff645f6d23b4b.png

A big IF...the gfs is right. 

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4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Thatmap Brian put out seems way overdone.  That much as snow?   I think a lot gets wasted as rain, even in areas it flips to snow

ORH gets almost 2.00" QPF total. And this would include any precip that falls as snow early on and melts when hitting the ground.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

NAM not far off just different placement. wherever that sucker sets up is going to get smoked. I could see rates 3-4''/hour 

image.thumb.png.865ee10cc5a27cbcaeedef6a28dc81e8.png

That’s the more likelier placement of the two. Strange when the more progressive model is phased in sooner than the amp happy model. Not sure what to make of that. 

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Just now, dendrite said:

ORH gets almost 2.00" QPF total. And this would include any precip that falls as snow early on and melts when hitting the ground.

Ukie had 1.5-2.0" so that's very reasonable, One must not forget, That's a lot of moisture coming north from that southern S/W.

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You become numb to it after years of virtual abuse. We need gulf lows Miller A’s like 96 or 16. Once in a blue moon we’ll get the western edge of a Jan 11 or Feb 13 Miller B but those are the exception not the rule. God made the CT river for a reason ha. 

Yep pretty use to it, but at least we would get a blizzard once in awhile to make it not so bad. But lately it’s just been slim pickings for us.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s the more likelier placement of the two. Strange when the more progressive model is phased in sooner than the amp happy model. Not sure what to make of that. 

COuld be a matter of how quickly H7 materializes and closes off. But even based on where the NAM has this occurring I would suspect the best banding gets shoved a bit NW with time and perhaps would be similar to where GFS hints.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s the more likelier placement of the two. Strange when the more progressive model is phased in sooner than the amp happy model. Not sure what to make of that. 

idk...that mid level banding may arc right up into here.

image.png

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