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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


Typhoon Tip
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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

UKIE has 0 snow in SNE on 12z Run today according to weathermodels .  has it 33-34 degrees for most NW of 495 down toward REV and into S NH.  Gives S VT a pounding thru 6pm when most precip is over for SNE. 

I see some on our internal stuff. Looked like 5-6 near ORH to hubby.

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You almost wonder .. phase change from solid to liquid water states requires a little extra 'oomph' so a 33 or 34 F while ongoing moderate to heavy R, in a sounding that's CCB isothermal beneath .. 800 mb or so... maybe parachute fat aggregates overcome that -  ... 

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9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

you are right . lemme go ahead and delete that. One product on there did show that . 

Shows Phin to N maine getting 8-12 inches.  Late bloomer. 4-6" ORH hills and around 2" for Manch/ ASH/ down to 495

Looks like more like 12-15 up through MBY to Maine based on the Pivotal maps. 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You almost wonder .. phase change from solid to liquid water states requires a little extra 'oomph' so a 33 or 34 F while ongoing moderate to heavy R, in a sounding that's CCB isothermal beneath .. 800 mb or so... maybe parachute fat aggregates overcome that -  ... 

Yeah and it's all about the lift. You stick 50 micobars per second up at 600mb....those aggregates that start happening when they reach the melting layer are going to be so dense/thick (due to it being such heavy precip), it's going to cause the latent cooling to go into overdirve to melt all of them before reaching the ground.

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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Looks like more like 12-15 up through MBY to Maine based on the Pivotal maps. 

Could be , I was using weathermodels and it had a bullseye of 13 In Way up there Maine at noon Sunday and had you much lower but it's probably just different weenie algorithms. Weathermodels seemed low they had you at 8.

Point being it looked Good For East Central Elevated NH up Past you and East into Elevated interior of Maine

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s a good idea for people in SNE to be spiking the snow ball 2+ days out on a system where snow will be completely dependent on intensity/dynamics. 

I mean, what could go wrong?

I think its all relative....there was never really much of a shot, but here we are this late in the game.

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Could be , I was using weathermodels and it had a bullseye of 13 In Way up there Maine at noon Sunday and had you much lower but it's probably just different weenie algorithms. Weathermodels seemed low they had you at 8.

Point being it looked Good For East Central Elevated NH up Past you and East into Elevated interior of Maine

Yeah, no need for us to parse the UKMET clown maps. We are just embarrassing ourselves. LOL

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