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Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?


Typhoon Tip
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5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Holy shit DT in the house. 

I remember last Dec that Ecmwf website DT  and Ray like the snowmaps had maxes of a foot in the areas that had near 3. If the Euro depiction of rapidly crashing heights is correct I could see more than just elevations getting pounded. 

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 gfs  and euro  in  a huge  Model   fight   

 12z GFS  at  60 hrs   has   the LOW  in sw  NC  near  just north  of CLT...
at   66 hrs  12z   SAT   the  18z GFS has the Low west of  Danville  VA..

12z   wed  OP  ECMWF   at 72 hrs  -- 12x  SAT   has the LOW 100  miles  EAST of  SBY
 

WOW 

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2 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Coming from you, that's funny!

   Kind of  intended to be... 
but    I have been in central VA  for 25 year
  if  I was THAT  bothered by missed snow chances   etc  I would of moved a long time ago

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

I remember last Dec that Ecmwf website DT  and Ray like the snowmaps had maxes of a foot in the areas that had near 3. If the Euro depiction of rapidly crashing heights is correct I could see more than just elevations getting pounded. 

9/10 times it's more accurate than the clown maps....but its guidance, like anything else. It is based on the model, which usually underestimates the mid levels in big events. Big difference between determining rain vs snow in marginal events.

I nailed that forecast btw.

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