dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: 12Z ICON moved quite a bit east. It was jackpotting N.NY. Pretty Iconic, Don't you think? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Any analogs people want to throw out there? 12/9/05 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: Back out with the genny Keep it handy, I got lucky this last time, Reggie with 8-10" for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 12Z ICON moved quite a bit east. It was jackpotting N.NY. Now it’s jackpotting me. It can stop moving now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Keep it handy, I got lucky this last time, Reggie with 8-10" for us. How’s it for the rest of us (junkies thank you..) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Mets.. I’m assuming this one will be paste for everyone right? No powder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 I can’t figure out where to chase. I’m thinking somewhere in NH, but not familiar with the state at all. So I don’t know the elevation nuances, not sure if it matters, but if any pros want to recommend a good easy to travel spot near interstates I’d appreciate it! Coming from Philly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: 12/9/05 Phil might re-join the board if that were to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: I can’t figure out where to chase. I’m thinking somewhere in NH, but not familiar with the state at all. So I don’t know the elevation nuances, not sure if it matters, but if any pros want to recommend a good easy to travel spot near interstates I’d appreciate it! Coming from Philly Monadnock State Park in SW NH might be good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: How’s it for the rest of us (junkies thank you..) More of a late bloomer and warm to start down your way, Looked more wet then white in EMA, But we know its been bad so i don't take much stock in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I like using the 3km once we are inside of 24h. Sometimes it catches a trend before that, but hard to trust it further out. Yeah. For complex, synoptic scale upper-air interactions at range I think the hi-res is often a net negative... Not inherently of course, mainly because sampling and parameterization errors can propagate more easily. Don't get me wrong, I love the nammy as much as anyone, but this would not be the type of event I'd give it too much weight, at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 16 minutes ago, PhineasC said: What’s the CRAS saying? I think they finally old yeller'd that model in 2017 or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 45 minutes ago, CT Rain said: In the 3km NAM we trust. Coastal CT gets less than inch while LI gets 2 to 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: I can’t figure out where to chase. I’m thinking somewhere in NH, but not familiar with the state at all. So I don’t know the elevation nuances, not sure if it matters, but if any pros want to recommend a good easy to travel spot near interstates I’d appreciate it! Coming from Philly There are still so many question marks it’s tuff. If it’s a late bloomer you may want to camp out at Wildcat or sneak your way into Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Mets.. I’m assuming this one will be paste for everyone right? No powder Once the column saturates ...it'll probably be an isothermal sounding ... then, if there are super structural mixing events like 'folding' and or entraining more thermodynamically cooler air source form the W/N... I've seen 34 F blue events starts cobwebbing off of eaves when the storm maxes... Then, when the storm pulls away ...couple click bounce back... This does get colder by 6 to 10 dm thickness in the 500mb to surface layer, and 850 thermal layout has cold around the backside synoptic layout as it is leaving so...probably this ends up drying out a little over the course of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: There are still so many question marks it’s tuff. If it’s a late bloomer you may want to camp out at Wildcat or sneak your way into Maine If it stays a bit east, I'd want to be in the hills near Sebago up in S ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Reggie with a much more tame solution compared to the NAM. Really gets NNE good, it extends into ORH county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: If it stays a bit east, I'd want to be in the hills near Sebago up in S ME. Go to Camp Lava Rock 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think they finally old yeller'd that model in 2017 or something. Damn, I bet it would have been showing a huge bomb wrapped up near the coast. It was sometimes good for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Reggie with a much more tame solution compared to the NAM. Really gets NNE good, it extends into ORH county. Yeah the track is there, but it's just not going nuts with the dynamics. I actually was looking at the soundings on pivotal and it has me raining with 925mb below 0C because it's keeping the sfc near 36-37F with mostly moderate precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Damn, I bet it would have been showing a huge bomb wrapped up near the coast. It was sometimes good for that. It never failed to raise the weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the track is there, but it's just not going nuts with the dynamics. I actually was looking at the soundings on pivotal and it has me raining with 925mb below 0C because it's keeping the sfc near 36-37F with mostly moderate precip rates. Yeah track is good. But pretty clear the dynamics are needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 12z GFS going to have some phasing with the N S/W this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: Go to Camp Lava Rock Just be prepared to hear 12 hours straight of whining that the storm is busting until there's 18 inches on the ground 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 This is going to be a good GFS run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: This is going to be a good GFS run. You or us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You or us? Us 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Wow, GFS nuke,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Reggie with a much more tame solution compared to the NAM. Really gets NNE good, it extends into ORH county. Reggie crushes my veggies. That would bust some birches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Once the column saturates ...it'll probably be an isothermal sounding ... then, if there are super structural mixing events like 'folding' and or entraining more thermodynamically cooler air source form the W/N... I've seen 34 F blue events starts cobwebbing off of eaves when the storm maxes... Then, when the storm pulls away ...couple click bounce back... This does get colder by 6 to 10 dm thickness in the 500mb to surface layer, and 850 thermal layout has cold around the backside synoptic layout as it is leaving so...probably this ends up drying out a little over the course of it. Yeah that’s what I was thinking. Sometimes the hills cool into upper 20’s and it becomes drier. Need to keep this 31-32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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