PhineasC Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: If the Euro betrays you , i would hide all the women and children in town. (like 12 ppl) The only children in town are mine and they know to hide when dad is raging. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 I def. need to see the balance of 12z...glad I held off instead of issuing last night. NAM usually does well with tight, bombing lows this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: Get used to this. Gonna need more than half an inch of upslope to cover that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 I could see my hood being the battleground area between cold rain with some slush as it pulls away and total deck destroyer. Going to take an absolute miracle for any kind of decent snow near the CP. Obviously have to favor the ORH hills and Monads for the best in SNE, if we get anything at all, at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: So, I'm a little confused with something. What's the difference of the 3 km Nam model run as opposed to the regular 12z run? My thinking is the Euro will come east a little bit more I still see snow in North central Connecticut Exactly what it says. 3 km is a resolution between sampled points of 3km vs 12 km 4 x as coarse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, DomNH said: I could see my hood being the battleground area between cold rain with some slush as it pulls away and total deck destroyer. Going to take an absolute miracle for any kind of decent snow near the CP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Absolute crushjob CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Absolute crushjob CT Heavy heavy outages 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: Exactly what it says. 3 km is a resolution between sampled points of 3km vs 12 km 4 x as coarse. So.. From what your saying.. The 3km is less likely then the 12km? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Where's Legro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: So.. From what your saying.. The 3km is less likely then the 12km? Not worth putting much stock in either at this stage of the game. Just something to look at and note. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Eckster's in the house though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: So.. From what your saying.. The 3km is less likely then the 12km? One just has a higher resolution, which can be a good or bad thing sometimes. Impossible to say which is more or less likely to be right at this point. Usually a good bet to be hesitant about the NAM in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Maine with back to back hundreds of thousands in the dark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, Arnold214 said: Heavy heavy outages Some are still recovering from this last one, I lucked out and never lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Absolute crushjob CT Especially River west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Especially River west We all good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Where's Legro? Pushing his son in the stroller while refreshing the ensemble sensitivity page on his phone. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 The Euro comes out in an hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: The Euro comes out in an hour? Not until 12:45 EST 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: The Euro comes out in an hour? 12:45 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We all good If the euro comes east, this is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 What’s the CRAS saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 3 hours weenie Lol. I am a weather lover.. But not a weenie, DICK... Lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 27 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: So, I'm a little confused with something. What's the difference of the 3 km Nam model run as opposed to the regular 12z run? My thinking is the Euro will come east a little bit more I still see snow in North central Connecticut The short answer is that the "3 KM" refers to the grid spacing ... The "regular" 12z run is 32 KM ... I'm pretty sure the finer meshed meso models are developed to try and pick up on smaller scaled ... yet important events that the global models are less capable of resolving due to their larger spacing. That gap is closing though... as tech increases in sampling/sensory, and computing power has pretty much already become incomprehensible ... the global numerical models ( a.k.a., ECMWF, GGEM ..), are approaching those limitations. I'm not frankly sure what the GFS' layout is these days? Anyone.. ?? I'm pretty sure the ensemble membership of the ensemble system has recently been added members - I don't know if the the finite grid of the models/cluster is smaller tho . The model's can and do implement 'convective sequencing' variations - that just means different physical equations ( slightly ...) that handle vertical displacement phenomenon ( convection )within the model... In a situation such as this, the height falls are creating an 'instability feedback' - I believe ...other Mets may have insights - and then the 3KM NAM ...which is intrinsically evolved to be a convection/thunderstorm initiation, may thus be more sensitive ... in then over the evolution of the cyclone - boom, and thus is producing... big dynamical subsequent/additional feed-backs once that convection is going ...etc... As far as the Euro coming east .. I still think the very early vestiges of consensus really began yesterday... These more finer meshed models "appear" to be assessing the jet interaction /stream phasing ...certainly differently than the GFS has been, but ...you have different species in the GGEM, Euro and NAM ...yet they end up similarly ... ACK-ish and other than typical 'giga' motions cycle-to-cycle ..the deviations haven't ( in my mind ) been too distracting. That might suggest that error is centered in the spacing aspect, more so than the perturbed physical variation of mathematics native to each one. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Any analogs people want to throw out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If the euro comes east, this is true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 12Z ICON moved quite a bit east. It was jackpotting N.NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maine with back to back hundreds of thousands in the dark? Back out with the genny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 13 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: So.. From what your saying.. The 3km is less likely then the 12km? The 3km has higher resolution. Doesn’t mean it’s more right or wrong but theoretically close in it should pick up nuances better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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