greenmtnwx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Even the GEFS at 6z... just huge spread. About 7 or 8 of these out of 30 are still that big Catskill/Adirodack/VT hit. Roughly the same number as the eastern solution over E NH and ME. Although the GFS is a little more insistent on the eastern solution, even nodding towards the mostly coastal ME and on NE from there solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah especially with this one, even closer to 500. Depends on level of maturity, size, etc...as you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah that's generally the climo favored way to go. I can't remember the last storm to phase faster and earlier than models progged at Day 3. But plenty phase later than models show at Day 3. Been saying all along.....Maine gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Does any one know if Bretton Woods or any of the other New Hampshire ski resorts will be denying lift tickets to out of state travelers (due to 14 day quarantine) requirement? I am coming up Saturday morning and I dont want to deal with any fake bs from health dept people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Been saying all along.....Maine gain. I agree. I'd favor E NH up through E ME and the Maritimes. The GFS HAS been very, very good the last year or so leading the way on the more progressive, later developing eastern solutions. EC/UK just too often been too wrapped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah that's generally the climo favored way to go. I can't remember the last storm to phase faster and earlier than models progged at Day 3. But plenty phase later than models show at Day 3. It depends, though...if there is a big NAO block, then it maybe different....but la nina with a neutral or Positive NAO? Why would it phase faster, aside from the model and Kevin willing it to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, 40westwx said: Does any one know if Bretton Woods or any of the other New Hampshire ski resorts will be denying lift tickets to out of state travelers (due to 14 day quarantine) requirement? I am coming up Saturday morning and I dont want to deal with any fake bs from health dept people I don't think anyone is doing that. Others can chime in, but you should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Does any one know if Bretton Woods or any of the other New Hampshire ski resorts will be denying lift tickets to out of state travelers (due to 14 day quarantine) requirement? I am coming up Saturday morning and I dont want to deal with any fake bs from health dept people The NH travel restrictions are really just suggestions. No one checks or enforces them as far as I know. We're the COVID Tiujana of New England. Just hop over the border and have some fun. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I don't think anyone is doing that. Others can chime in, but you should be fine. That restrictive travel criteria is completely unenforceable BS. Its just gov covering their asses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Does any one know if Bretton Woods or any of the other New Hampshire ski resorts will be denying lift tickets to out of state travelers (due to 14 day quarantine) requirement? I am coming up Saturday morning and I dont want to deal with any fake bs from health dept people You’ll be fine but even if it’s snowing conditions on the slopes will likely be horrible until a few days later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: The NAM has 150m height falls in 9 hrs. That’s really impressive at 500mb. That’s when stuff “happens.” Can’t say I’m mad at the NAM. Or even the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It depends, though...if there is a big NAO block, then it maybe different....but la nina with a neutral or Positive NAO? Why would it phase faster, aside from the model and Kevin willing it to? I just don’t follow why you’re going with no snow in CT and Mass. All guidance drops accumulating snow, some quite a bit. I’m fully expecting minimally a few inches. Unless you’re referring to jackpots which will be the NH and Maine mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, DomNH said: The NH travel restrictions are really just suggestions. No one checks or enforces them as far as I know. We're the COVID Tiujana of New England. Just hop over the border and have some fun. My wife was just asking where we're skiing this weekend. Definitely shopping covid restrictions and mountain openings. Wouldn't be surprised first big dump most mountains restrict to season pass holders/ikon only. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: Can’t say I’m mad at the NAM. Or even the GFS I saw you indicate that you guys are in flux regarding travel plans....just stop thinking and go to Maine. The End- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It depends, though...if there is a big NAO block, then it maybe different....but la nina with a neutral or Positive NAO? Why would it phase faster, aside from the model and Kevin willing it to? Yeah I don’t know. Just seems like you put your money on the phase and strengthening happening later than models prog. The ensemble means are getting tweaked though by some super amped solutions, which at this point it seems hard to see this jackpotting N.NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I just don’t follow why you’re going with no snow in CT and Mass. All guidance drops accumulating snow, some quite a bit. I’m fully expecting minimally a few inches. Unless you’re referring to jackpots which will be the NH and Maine mountains I haven't posted any map yet. But I would be careful about expecting plowable snow in most of SNE and leave it at that for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, DomNH said: The NH travel restrictions are really just suggestions. No one checks or enforces them as far as I know. We're the COVID Tiujana of New England. Just hop over the border and have some fun. I heard some folks getting fines mailed to them, they tracked their plates from the toll booths.. not sure that is still happening, that was back in the spring and it was Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, DomNH said: The NH travel restrictions are really just suggestions. No one checks or enforces them as far as I know. We're the COVID Tiujana of New England. Just hop over the border and have some fun. Just suggestions here too from what I’ve seen. No different. No penalties. Honor box system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Looking at the H5/7/850 closed low tracks tells me we’d be historic with a better airmass in sne. Damn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Looking at the H5/7/850 closed low tracks tells me we’d be historic with a better airmass in sne. Damn... we will know for sure in a few minutes, 12Znam is coming in :) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Looking at the H5/7/850 closed low tracks tells me we’d be historic with a better airmass in sne. Damn... The cyclogenesis is far superior to 12/5/03, but that event had an awesome arctic air mass in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Still think North and East in NE is where it as it with this...aside from parting gifts. Think the action way out west is being overplayed attm. I'll have a first call out today. Models have this deepening rapidly near the cape, if this deepening is delayed another 6 hours ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I saw you indicate that you guys are in flux regarding travel plans....just stop thinking and go to Maine. The End- I know man, but you know how we all are...we want the jackpot. But at the end of the day, I think you're right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 NAM is going to be less amped than 06z I think. Southern vort is dragging this run vs 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM is going to be less amped than 06z I think. Southern vort is dragging this run vs 06z. I will amp....eventually lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: The NAM has 150m height falls in 9 hrs. That’s really impressive at 500mb. That’s when stuff “happens.” Not to toot horns but this was mentioned yesterday ...yes, and I'm suspectful of meso-B/CSI type banding with plausible thunder given a NAM solution/blended Euro..I rather like the 'EE' rule in this case, because for one ... these sub-synoptic scale tightly wound mid level forcers are handled better by finer meshed meso models - I don't find it a coincidence that the NAM/Euro and the GGEM aren't even returning the GFS calls anymore. Edit, 12z NAM is still just 'giga' motions typical for that model's synoptic scale handling - not likely to deter my thinking ( for now..) I'm also noting the 06z GFS subtly plumbed nuance-more N/stream through Cleveland ( ~ ) longitude, as it is foisting it's S stream vestigial vortex into the NE trajectory ... Which, by the way ... regardless these major player disagreements...pretty much all models indicate a 1.5 deg lat 500 mb wind max trajectory S of L.I. and that fits climatology on frontogenic emergence on the polar side ... Pretty sure someone gets thunder ...and the thing with CSI and banding fall rates - ...well, you know the drill... That height falls was/were noted yesterday and is consistent in the Euro and the blend... instantiating convective instability ( PI ) and then we have the jet mechanics with exception left exit at over top ... The more I think of this, ..looks like a chance at an over-achievement relative to some of these more robust guidance's as it is... I don't see the Euro this incorrect/wrong this close ... and in fact, it could even bump east on that track within an acceptable margin of error for still 72 hours and that would make the diff on accum. of course. I suspect we see thunder whether we are caw paws over to ending cake, or more realized parachutes that dynamically in either case moves toward a cryo finish... Folks ironically - rightfully ... - suggesting this was a highly dynamic reliant event and frankly, these overnight runs have done a lot to bring into focus this system greatest attributes and it is indeed - from where I am sitting - a dynamical text-book/juggernaut paradigm. The 12z should be along now any moment to abase these notions ... we'll see. Strikingly bad mid range performance but as we are turning the page into short turn, I'm starting to hedge in favor of the Euro as being the leader on this guy - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Weaker, Slower s/w bowling ball on the 12z Nam, Should end up east of the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I know man, but you know how we all are...we want the jackpot. But at the end of the day, I think you're right. I'd go near Jackman, or even a bit north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 15 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: I heard some folks getting fines mailed to them, they tracked their plates from the toll booths.. not sure that is still happening, that was back in the spring and it was Maine. I'd take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd go near Jackman, or even a bit north If the Euro's right yes, If not, They will be better off on there original destination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now