ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Is it too early for the RPM? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2020 Author Share Posted December 3, 2020 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is one of the worst ones I’ve seen in a while this close to the event. I mean, we’re only 3 days out and these models are almost behaving like they do 6 days out. They have no idea on how to handle the interaction of these two shortwaves. Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 643 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Valid Aug 15/1200 UTC thru Aug 19/0000 UTC This product has been terminated as of August 15, 2020. For more information, please refer to the following Service Change Notice (SCN): https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn20-58pmdhmd_term ination.pdf WPC will continue to include forecast evaluations of model guidance in other text discussions, which are described in the SCN. In particular, note that the Extended Forecast Discussion (PMDEPD) has a section specifically providing a guidance and predictability assessment. The PMDEPD is available at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=p mdepd Additionally, advanced graphical tools comparing guidance, including climatological context, are available from the WPC Forecast Tools web page: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=tls Gallina good policy ... you stupid assholes telling you ... the n/stream is being inconsistently handled up over the tundra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: In our dreams. We rent a house for the winter in St Agatha for our snowmobile trips. Beautiful area..different world up there for sure. I’m hoping they get some good snow out of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Looked like the best gfs run to me. Split the euro/gfs 70/30 or 60/40 whatever you fancy...and it could be decent for interior SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Not when it’s showing that You know it’s bad when I was wishing the RPM went out another 6-12 hours. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Good thing is, we're flexible. We'll go wherever the snow goes....if there is any You may need to grab the ferry over to NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looked like the best gfs run to me. Split the euro/gfs 70/30 or 60/40 whatever you fancy...and it could be decent for interior SNE. Would you consider interior southern New England being just north of I84 in Connecticut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: You know it’s bad when I was wishing the RPM went out another 6-12 hours. You know it’s bad when I wish you’d post the previous frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Would you consider interior southern New England being just north of I84 in Connecticut? Yes 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: Would you consider interior southern New England being just north of I84 in Connecticut? Pretty much, yea...and I would extend 84 thru MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: We had a nice event in late October but nothing comes close to the first December potential that shows up. Especially since we were in long shot territory with 2:00 left in the game and were now down to the 15 yard line with a timeout and 30 seconds left. Hard, but not impossible. Ha. Not a terrible analogy. Not sure we’re that close to punching it in yet. But yeah, we’ve improved from needing a Hail Mary I think. We’ve gotten enough to go right that we’re now in plausible territory even if still large dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: You may need to grab the ferry over to NS. If we(Americans) weren't barred from Canada, we would if we had to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Is it too early for the RPM? I like the northerly wind flow with it due S of us as it approaches the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 GEM looks pretty good at 66hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Canadian swings it (more like dumbells it) near the cape. You can see how the srn stream H5 already has the surface low occluded off of NJ at hr 72, and then dumbbells towards the cape. I’d rather it not occlude already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 GGEM holds from 12z, if not a bit better. Euro is winning the battle tonight albeit slowly. GGEM is a middle ground solution between the two for up here at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If we(Americans) weren't barred from Canada, we would if we had to. 0z GGEM says stay the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 0z GGEM says stay the course Nice run from ORH points NE. That’s kinda how I see it playing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 0z GGEM says stay the course Yeah, I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Is it too early for the RPM? Never too early for RPM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Just rename it to the JPM already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 38 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If we(Americans) weren't barred from Canada, we would if we had to. Come through. There's 2 feet of snow on the ground 70 miles north of me and 4" here. If you say you're coming for the snow you'll get a pass. Nobody comes to Canada for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Has uncle emerged from his bender? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 39 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nice run from ORH points NE. That’s kinda how I see it playing out. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 30 minutes ago, weathafella said: Has uncle emerged from his bender? Ukie well west of 12z Tracks SLP from over south central jersey to south shore mass E. Catskills to S VT to N NH /adjacent Maine jack 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Euro likely will be similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Euro not backing down one inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Better run for me than 18z. Verbatim I might mix a little but it’s close. A clobbering for western sections through NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 I heard it was a little east of 18z...not invested enough to look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2020 Share Posted December 3, 2020 Randolph,NH gets annihilated on this euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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