tavwtby Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 2:08 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: nam destroys Marlboro to Weston to Acton Expand figures I'm traveling to marlboro for two weeks on Sunday, looking like jackpot zone around there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 3:13 AM, mahk_webstah said: Colder than forecast here. 33 here now and maybe that means quicker changeover in the am Expand 36F here with the moon visible. I think it's just a little radiation escaping out to space...not really indicative of the airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Yeah but in a changeover situation it is nicer to not be 39 or 40 while it’s raining and we’re waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Should be some 2”/hour rates in some spots for a little while 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 3:16 AM, mahk_webstah said: Yeah but in a changeover situation it is nicer to not be 39 or 40 while it’s raining and we’re waiting. Expand Point is when the overcast thickens back up the temp should climb back up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Not liking this 00z RGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 RGEM has been so awful on this one. That jack at ORH on other models is 1" on the RGEM, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Yeah RGEM continues to be the terd in the punch bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 3:13 AM, friedmators said: RGEM is still a torch. Expand I was just looking at the rgem soundings under the death band and it has really steep lapse rates from sfc to 925mb...it’s just not credible. That should literally be isothermal under that type of precip. If 925 was a torch then it would be more believable....and as an aside, the rgem is a little warmer at 925 than other guidance but not enough to explain all the rain. It is still getting below 0C in that level. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 Your change over temps probably 36 with glop chutes it’s a top —> down cold atmosphere 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 3:20 AM, CoastalWx said: Yeah RGEM continues to be the terd in the punch bowl. Expand They really need to fix that model and resolve its warmista bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 3:13 AM, mahk_webstah said: Colder than forecast here. 33 here now and maybe that means quicker changeover in the am Expand Man....48.7 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2020 Author Share Posted December 5, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 3:21 AM, ORH_wxman said: I was just looking at the rgem soundings under the death band and it has really steep lapse rates from sfc to 925mb...it’s just not credible. That should literally be isothermal under that type of precip. If 925 was a torch then it would be more believable....and as an aside, the rgem is a little warmer at 925 than other guidance but not enough to explain all the rain. It is still getting below 0C in that level. Expand GFS is suspicious of some of that. Last night’s 00z was comical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Same QPF jack from ORH to SE NH, but everything else shifted east a bit. I'm running out of wiggle room. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 3:21 AM, ORH_wxman said: I was just looking at the rgem soundings under the death band and it has really steep lapse rates from sfc to 925mb...it’s just not credible. That should literally be isothermal under that type of precip. If 925 was a torch then it would be more believable....and as an aside, the rgem is a little warmer at 925 than other guidance but not enough to explain all the rain. It is still getting below 0C in that level. Expand Sounds like the gfs of yore. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 12:01 AM, ORH_wxman said: Looks like 18z euro tickled east. Nothing huge. It’s a little slower again too. Expand Colder down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 3:16 AM, mahk_webstah said: Yeah but in a changeover situation it is nicer to not be 39 or 40 while it’s raining and we’re waiting. Expand Or 46 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 2:53 AM, PhineasC said: The HRRR was upgraded recently right? Are you guys trusting it? I have always known it to run kinda warm. Expand I have found it to be awful, PF loves it so this is a test after the 12/2 upgrade. On 12/5/2020 at 3:19 AM, dendrite said: Not liking this 00z RGEM... Expand It’s been a furnace but it’s been awful too. On 12/5/2020 at 3:22 AM, dendrite said: Same QPF jack from ORH to SE NH, but everything else shifted east a bit. I'm running out of wiggle room. Expand It’s a narrow ribbon with a sharp cutoff on the north and south side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 The RGEM is terrible in all facets for basically everyone. Further east and warmer. Gross. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 I'm glad this event will likely pan out for most I wasn't too optimistic on it a few days ago where it appeared like it would cut but it seems that the LP slowed and phased with nrn stream when it was over TN Valley putting it on a favorable track for most. It appeared at first the LP needed to dig further south when it was over TX to get any sort of chance but looks like nrn stream came to the rescue and took it under its wing. Hoping the GFS resolves itself for ern MA to make this an all inclusive event for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 3:31 AM, PhineasC said: The RGEM is terrible in all facets for basically everyone. Further east and warmer. Gross. Expand Any flakes up there? I see -RA at MPV, BML, and HIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Some HREF love through 00z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 3:32 AM, dendrite said: Any flakes up there? I see -RA at MPV, BML, and HIE. Expand I have a mix here now at 34 degrees. Light rain and some gloppy flurries buzzing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 3:32 AM, It's Always Sunny said: I'm glad this event will likely pan out for most I wasn't too optimistic on it a few days ago where it appeared like it would cut but it seems that the LP slowed and phased with nrn stream when it was over TN Valley putting it on a favorable track for most. It appeared at first the LP needed to dig further south when it was over TX to get any sort of chance but looks like nrn stream came to the rescue and took it under its wing. Hoping the GFS resolves itself for ern MA to make this an all inclusive event for everyone. Expand Might be a little too far east for Texas given all the ticks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 HubbDave crushy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 3:35 AM, PhineasC said: Might be a little too far east for Texas given all the ticks. Expand 00z GFS stopped the bleeding, Held serve so you can climb down off the ledge ha ha. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 3:35 AM, PhineasC said: Might be a little too far east for Texas given all the ticks. Expand Lol just a bit. I've been here for over 5 yrs and haven't had more than a coating in the metroplex, thankfully (considering nobody knows how to handle winter precip here) nor do they have the resources to treat the roads. Dreading my first freezing rain event here though between the power outages and poor road conditions in the event I have to drive into work. Last one was in March 2015 right before I got here so DFW is due, just a matter of when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 gfs finally catching on to the snow further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 3:33 AM, CT Rain said: Some HREF love through 00z. Expand Nice WaWa 24-spot. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 3:39 AM, dryslot said: 00z GFS stopped the bleeding, Held serve so you can climb down off the ledge ha ha. Expand I feel like I need to wire you some money as my therapist. Maybe some for @ORH_wxman and @CoastalWx too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now