CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:23 PM, Arnold214 said: That’s a little concerning. Expand The soundings were sort of eh near the city. I would like to see the lift smack into the DGZ when the column is cool enough. You can see prior to the flip, there is good lift in the DGZ which likely helps to top down cool. But as the low intensifies, the lift lowers a bit. Maybe it bombs and contracts everything near the center. That would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:20 PM, CoastalWx said: We'll need it to really go to town. Any showery crap near the dryslot and forget it. That storm had a much better airmass. Hate to see it. Expand Best chance for BOS area I think is evening when that stinger rotates through....hopefully it is still very intense. If it is, they could see 2-3 hours of pretty good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 5:24 PM, dendrite said: 51° and partly sunny in December. It definitely doesn’t feel like snow tomorrow. Expand I was outside dealing with Xmas lights during lunch. it was actually quite toasty in the sun. then I tried to think of a time it was this warm the day before a snowstorm. Then I realized that although I will never remember, Will @ORH_wxman will be along shortly after I post this to tell me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:20 PM, CoastalWx said: We'll need it to really go to town. Any showery crap near the dryslot and forget it. That storm had a much better airmass. Hate to see it. Expand The crazy CCB band pivoting through can drop that in 2 hours. Looks like BOS at least sees that at this point on these runs today. Anyway, enjoy whatever happens. Our fate’s definitely sealed for a cold nasty rain event here. If only this was 5-8 degrees colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:22 PM, ariof said: Tolland! Drink! Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:20 PM, CoastalWx said: We'll need it to really go to town. Any showery crap near the dryslot and forget it. That storm had a much better airmass. Hate to see it. Expand Boston Weather Service seems to think the track is staying mostly off shore and not over the Cape and Islands as some but not all the models have. So that may be where the difference in thinking is. Which may translate to the potential heavier amounts shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:23 PM, Arnold214 said: That’s a little concerning. Expand Your snow growth procedure definitely has dry slot issues on the GFS/Euro for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:25 PM, SJonesWX said: I was outside dealing with Xmas lights during lunch. it was actually quite toasty in the sun. then I tried to think of a time it was this warm the day before a snowstorm. Then I realized that although I will never remember, Will @ORH_wxman will be along shortly after I post this to tell me. Expand 63 at BOX the day before April Fools 1997. 61 at PVD, 62 MQE, 63 BDL, 54 at ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:25 PM, SJonesWX said: I was outside dealing with Xmas lights during lunch. it was actually quite toasty in the sun. then I tried to think of a time it was this warm the day before a snowstorm. Then I realized that although I will never remember, Will @ORH_wxman will be along shortly after I post this to tell me. Expand 3/30/97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:28 PM, OceanStWx said: Your snow growth procedure definitely has dry slot issues on the GFS/Euro for BOS. Expand That's what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:28 PM, ariof said: 63 at BOX the day before April Fools 1997. 61 at PVD, 62 MQE, 63 BDL, 54 at ORH. Expand On 12/4/2020 at 6:28 PM, ORH_wxman said: 3/30/97 Expand that was going to be my guess. Thanks for confirming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:27 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Expand I gave you love with my update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:25 PM, CoastalWx said: The soundings were sort of eh near the city. I would like to see the lift smack into the DGZ when the column is cool enough. You can see prior to the flip, there is good lift in the DGZ which likely helps to top down cool. But as the low intensifies, the lift lowers a bit. Maybe it bombs and contracts everything near the center. That would help. Expand I’m not looking at much data at the moment. But what does the back-bent warm front look like in the 700mb height fields? I like to use that as a rough dividing line between the good stuff and the lighter, more showery crap. Whomever remains to the west of that is golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Been tracking this bad boy focused in Vermont ski areas (notably okemo) and wondering your guys thoughts on the western edge. From what I’m seeing after the worst of the East trend has ended it does seem like there may be some decent lift especially early aftn into evening tomorrow but my concern is how the models are handling the western fringe. There is definitely going to be a sharp cutoff on the NW side which right now seems to be worst between southeast Vermont and central mass (going from 0.75 to nearly 2in qpf on the euro). My concern is that precip might be overdone on the western fringe however in looking for some eveidencr of this, the FGEN maps from for example the RGEM it would support the model output of 0.5-0.75 qpf for most of southern/east central Vermont so maybe my concerns are unwarranted. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 helluva forecast to have to make for the first storm, with all of the factors up here...ratios, rates, etc. But the recent models are all 12+ go 8-15? probably more like 6-12. Or live large at 1-2'? Probably only do that overnight if the outputs continue to show ~2"qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Euro hit ASH area much harder than GFS Flips us by noon I spy a jack from Ashburnham to Miller state park on that pivotal map Thru Sunday eve with tons of spots doing very well With similar amounts up to Phin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Boston metro (including metrowest) will be fun to watch ~18z-0z Saturday when 850/925 crash <0C, great rates, but surface is still 37C. I think at the very least, a tight gradient of sloppy coating-2" at coast to 2-4" out by 128. But even an extra 1-2 hours under the best rates would add 1-2", and that's definitely realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:31 PM, weatherwiz said: I gave you love with my update Expand I saw it. LFG! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Where are my euro clowns for my weenie folder? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:30 PM, CoastalWx said: That's what I see. Expand That low level lift is no bueno for snow, it's either going to be precip rates too light for changeover or heavily rimed snow that has trouble stacking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:32 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Euro hit ASH area much harder than GFS Flips us by noon I spy a jack from Ashburnham to Miller state park on that map with tons of spots doing very well With similar amounts to Phin Expand And it's all about small details for the highest amounts. What side of the hill / mountain are you on? Top of the hill or bottom? I won't get the highest, being on the north side and at the bottom but it should be interesting. I'm hoping it's not 8 inches of concrete though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:36 PM, dendrite said: Where are my euro clowns for my weenie folder? Expand noooo we've gone like 5+ pages without a model snow map. don't tempt anyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:36 PM, dendrite said: Where are my euro clowns for my weenie folder? Expand 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:31 PM, Arnold214 said: I’m not looking at much data at the moment. But what does the back-bent warm front look like in the 700mb height fields? I like to use that as a rough dividing line between the good stuff and the lighter, more showery crap. Whomever remains to the west of that is golden. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:31 PM, Arnold214 said: I’m not looking at much data at the moment. But what does the back-bent warm front look like in the 700mb height fields? I like to use that as a rough dividing line between the good stuff and the lighter, more showery crap. Whomever remains to the west of that is golden. Expand Here's the 30h height field, plus 30 and 36 hour RH fields....it's moving E between 30 and 36h...so metrowest may get into the good stuff for a time....but you can def see that it's prob dryslotted out to like rt 128 at 18z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 MInd you 700 is a little mild, May have to look closer to 500-600mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:40 PM, ORH_wxman said: Here's the 30h height field, plus 30 and 36 hour RH fields....it's moving E between 30 and 36h...so metrowest may get into the good stuff for a time....but you can def see that it's prob dryslotted out to like rt 128 at 18z tomorrow. Expand I thought the Euro looked overall better on the bent back front aloft than the GFS. GFS brings it awfully far inland (which also explains the crap clown map). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Maybe we'll just have upright convection through the slot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:41 PM, OceanStWx said: I thought the Euro looked overall better on the bent back front aloft than the GFS. GFS brings it awfully far inland (which also explains the crap clown map). Expand Yeah it did imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 On 12/4/2020 at 6:40 PM, CoastalWx said: MInd you 700 is a little mild, May have to look closer to 500-600mb. Expand Yeah, whatever layer that feature is most discernible. Sometimes have to increase the height contour density. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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