Dec 5/6th major coastal/ west Atlantic cyclogenesis ...?

[Lava Rock]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm actually pretty excited for the toaster baths during the day tomorrow. "You said I was going to get snow!!1!@"

...right before they flip to 2"/hr. 

I'll be first in line

[TalcottWx]

My guess for BOS is 1-3

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

I wish! Those Mainers are not welcoming us MA people during COVID

I'm pretty confident that if you jump in your car and go, no one is going to stop you.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is going to be an interesting storm to track from the pure precip rates standpoint and how it matches up with the ptype....I think there's going to be a very high correlation if I had to guess. Like the first 6-8 hours of this thing kind of slog along with moderate (to maybe low-end heavy) precip and that's when all the toaster baths are gonna happen. Then all of the sudden, those ridiculous echoes on radar rotate in and I can envision a ton of people posting that flakes are mixing in and then changing over.

I love the HRRR depiction of 1 hr snow totals, because it's only going to give you a number where it thinks it's snowing. So you can see the pytpe changeover as the coverage expands. Starts in the higher elevations of the Berks and ORH Hills mid morning and then it's game on by midday into Metrowest.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I wish! Those Mainers are not welcoming us MA people during COVID

No one will bother you. 

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There is a 0% chance you'd be saying this if you were still in Franklin county.

"Look at all of that QPF to my east"

[IowaStorm05]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I still think this has a shot to pound even if for a short time down this way.... even a few hours could put down a few inches 

So for SNE this potential has to do with how far south and under the wrap around gets then yes? Seems like the Canadian, which hasn’t been wisely discussed has held down pat on not providing any wrap around for most of SNE.

Yeah it’s also a matter of position S N E W too of course

[correnjim1]

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

My guess for BOS is 1-3

i wouldn't complain...especially if it rips good for awhile

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

My guess for BOS is 1-3

I can see more if rates are good

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No one will bother you. 

My sister is like that, too....my wife was talking to her about heading up to her place in VT, and she was petrified of the covid restrictions. People just can't wrap their minds around the fact that while discouraged, no one will do shit and you won't spontaneously combust at the state line. I had a Thanksgiving dinner...and the turkey didn't morph into a covid cell and eat me.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My sister is like that, too....my wife was talking to her about heading up to her place in VT, and she was petrified of the covid restrictions. People just can't wrap their minds around the fact that while discouraged, no one will do shit and you won't spontaneously combust at the state line.

Exactly!  
 

Some folks can’t think for themselves.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My sister is like that, too....my wife was talking to her about heading up to her place in VT, and she was petrified of the covid restrictions. People just can't wrap their minds around the fact that while discouraged, no one will do shit and you won't spontaneously combust at the state line.

Ya , i stayed in Vermont 2 weekends ago w my GF . Von Trapp lodge. Was very warm and welcoming there (Spruce peak  had more militant vibe on phone lol) and just asked that we hadn't had symptoms or been around folks who had. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 

Ya , i stay in Vermont 2 weekends ago . Von Trapp lodge. Was very warm and welcoming and just asked that we hadn't had symptoms or been around folks who had.

Yea, wife just dropped it because its like trying to tell metfan that he won't snow with +4 850s.

[Typhoon Tip]

Ha...sorry y'all that was supposed to be paraphrase and I kinda got carried away ..  There was a point to that - haha.

I am wondering if this might be an opportunity to maybe watch for shock transitions? 

I mean, there is not much analog value between this and 1992... no but, both scenarios do have one aspect in common: hugely dynamic...

1992 was not initially a snow column over Lowell .. I remember earlier that afternoon - in the non-abridged version of that story .. - setting the stage.  I was clamoring back across University Ave Bridge, 3 ..3:30PM with it's iron cold grate for a surface, and 70 foot draft over the Merrimack River bed... leaning against the cold gusts and the large drops of rain could be heard against one's head pegging away.  You know? Those kind of big glop drops - ? I guess they might have cat paws at the time...but this was before I'd ever heard the expression before.. I remember looking at the sky and you could make out an 'undulatory motion' to the ceiling - and I really got the distinct impression of looking at the snow level ...I dunno 1200' elevation? 

So it was probably not too far off the deck..and waiting for something to implode the lower thickness...  As Will was pointing out...we both seemed to thunder around the same time - probably at max dynamic and that was trigger for us...and that ceiling collapses - 

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie came west, but still definitely east of guidance like the RGEM/GFS....NAM was maybe slightly west of the Ukie.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Uncle looks great.

[correnjim1]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Uncle looks great.

for who?

[Damage In Tolland]

May pull a foot 

[ORH_wxman]

42h panel for the Mainers

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Uncle looks great.

snow map? For my curiosity's sake

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, correnjim1 said:

for who?

East Boston....which street do you live on?

[correnjim1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

East Boston....which street do you live on?

you can narrow it right down to my street? that's impressive lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, correnjim1 said:

you can narrow it right down to my street? that's impressive lol

  

[TalcottWx]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm pretty confident that if you jump in your car and go, no one is going to stop you.

The gf probably would slap me before leaving but I'd be able to over power her I think

[Torch Tiger]

A lot of rain here, cool

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha...sorry y'all that was supposed to be paraphrase and I kinda got carried away ..  There was a point to that - haha.

I am wondering if this might be an opportunity to maybe watch for shock transitions? 

I mean, there is not much analog value between this and 1992... no but, both scenarios do have one aspect in common: hugely dynamic...

1992 was not initially a snow column over Lowell .. I remember earlier that afternoon - in the non-abridged version of that story .. - setting the stage.  I was clamoring back across University Ave Bridge, 3 ..3:30PM with it's iron cold grate for a surface, and 70 foot draft over the Merrimack River bed... leaning against the cold gusts and the large drops of rain could be heard against one's head pegging away.  You know? Those kind of big glop drops - ? I guess they might have cat paws at the time...but this was before I'd ever heard the expression before.. I remember looking at the sky and you could make out an 'undulatory motion' to the ceiling - and I really got the distinct impression of looking at the snow level ...I dunno 1200' elevation? 

So it was probably not too far off the deck..and waiting for something to implode the lower thickness...  As Will was pointing out...we both seemed to thunder around the same time - probably at max dynamic and that was trigger for us...and that ceiling collapses - 

I was across the river over on Sarah Ave (behind Olsen Hall) during that event.  Not particularly sober... helping push cars out of the parking lot of the condos

[IowaStorm05]

I wish 

[Typhoon Tip]

25 minutes ago, klw said:

That was my first winter in VT.  It was a forecast of 12- 18+ for my area.  I spent 3 days watching CNN covering the storm while we were pounded by nothing but virga as the storm stopped a county away from me.  One of my least favorite events ever.

   

Yeah...as amazing as that storm was ... and it was multi faceted ( there was a wind damage and a tide problem at shore communities all the way down the Jersey shore/up to eastern Ma and coastal Nh in that too ) it was not a prolifiic snow producer over inland 'shadow' topographies.  

Someone can probably drub up the snow chart from that - it's a easy google effort no doubt. But the CT River valley and the like, ...I think Springfield Ma only got like 2-4" but that may be just my memory - heh.  Meanwhile places like Sutton were up over 30 inches.

[OceanStWx]

17 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

So for SNE this potential has to do with how far south and under the wrap around gets then yes? Seems like the Canadian, which hasn’t been wisely discussed has held down pat on not providing any wrap around for most of SNE.

Yeah it’s also a matter of position S N E W too of course

There's a pretty good TROWAL signal, even on the regional Canadian. It's essentially in the same position as this GFS version but 3 hours delayed.

[PhineasC]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You can set your watch to it. Like dominoes.

First call:

Lava—>Phin—>Berg—>2/3 of CT posters

I have a feeling I may melt as it takes hours and hours for the precip to crawl up here tomorrow. Just warning you guys up front. LOL